Effects of “ENSO-events” and rainforest conversion on river discharge in Central Sulawesi (Indonesia)

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Summary

Forest conversion and natural interannual climate fluctuation as ENSO-events are key determinants of water balances in tropical catchments. Distributed hydrological modelling that relates land cover changes and climate changes with river discharge are rare for humid tropical catchments at the mesoscale. In the present paper we present a hydrological modelling approach to describe the impact of land cover changes and ENSO-events on the water resources in a mesoscale humid tropical catchment. These are based on hydro-meteorological measurements that were performed in the Gumbasa catchment from 2002 to 2005 in the frame of STORMA.

The distributed hydrological model WASIM-ETH was calibrated and validated for the current land use (2002/2003, Landsat/ETM+ scene). Model results were generally consistent with observed discharge data and reproduced seasonal discharge dynamics well. The implications of possible future climate and land use conditions on the water balance of the Gumbasa River were assessed by scenario analysis. These clearly demonstrate a strong relationship between deforestation rates and increasing discharge variability. In particular, a significant increase of high water discharges was simulated for the applied land use scenarios. Forest conversion by smallholders practicing traditional land use alters the discharge dynamics more than a change in the total annual discharge.

The main results of the scenario analysis are:

1. ENSO anomalies of precipitation lead to an increase in discharge variability.

2. Strong ENSO-events (El Nino) lead to a 30% reduction in the water yield.

3. ENSO-events (El Nino) decrease the potential (flooding) area of paddy rice cultivation in the Gumbasa Irrigation Scheme by two thirds in the second half of the year.

4. Annual crop scenarios up to 1,200 m a.s.l. showed a 42% and the perennial crop scenario (cacao) a 23% increase in river discharge with high increase in overland flow and flooding risks.

With regard to the high deforestation rates of the research catchment and the proposed increase of El Nino frequency, it is highly likely that the negative changes for the water resources of Central Sulawesi will continue.

Keywords

Hydrological Modelling ENSO Tropical Deforestation River discharge development Central Sulawesi 
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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Deptartment of Landscape Ecology, Geographical InstituteUniversity of GöttingenGöttingenGermany
  2. 2.Center for Development ResearchUniversity of BonnBonnGermany

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