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Cross sector land use modelling framework

  • Torbjörn Jansson
  • Martha Bakker
  • Baptiste Boitier
  • Arnaud Fougeyrollas
  • John Helming
  • Hans van Meijl
  • Pieter J. Verkerk

Abstract

The purpose of the model component in SENSOR is to quantify the effects of a comprehensive set of policies on land use. The need to include interaction between sectors as well as a high level of detail for each sector calls for a combination of sector specific and sector wide models. This chapter describes the modelling system, with emphasis on the linking of the models to a coherent system. Five sectors of significant importance for land use are modelled individually: Forestry, agriculture, urban land use, transport infrastructure and tourism. All models are connected as sub-modules to an economy-wide partial econometric model. In addition, a land cover model is used to disaggregate land use down to 1 km grid resolution.

The linking of such a diverse set of models in a consistent way poses conceptual as well as practical issues. The conceptual issues concern questions such as which items of the models to link, how to obtain a stable joint baseline scenario, and how to obtain a joint equilibrium solution for all models simultaneously in simulation. Practical issues concern the actual implementation of the conceptually sound linkages and provision of a workable technical solution. In SENSOR, great care has been taken to develop a sound linkage concept.

The linked system allows the user to introduce a shock in either of the models, and the set of results will provide a joint solution for all sectors modelled in SENSOR. In this manner, the models take a complex policy scenario as argument and compute a comprehensive set of variables involving all five sectors on regional level, which in turn forms a basis for distilling out the impact on sustainability in the form of indicators. Without the extensive automation and technical linkages, it would not have been possible to obtain a joint equilibrium, or it would have required exorbitant amounts of working time.

Keywords

Model linking sustainable land use cross sector modelling iterative recalibration 

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  • Torbjörn Jansson
    • 1
  • Martha Bakker
    • 2
  • Baptiste Boitier
    • 3
  • Arnaud Fougeyrollas
    • 3
  • John Helming
    • 1
  • Hans van Meijl
    • 1
  • Pieter J. Verkerk
    • 4
  1. 1.LEI, Agricultural Economics Research InstituteWageningen URThe HagueThe Netherlands
  2. 2.Wageningen UniversityWageningenThe Netherlands
  3. 3.ERASME laboratoryEcole CentraleParisFrance
  4. 4.European Forest InstituteJoensuuFinland

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