Overview of methods for the verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts

  • Andrea Rossa
  • Pertti Nurmi
  • Elizabeth Ebert


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Atger F (2001) Verification of intense precipitation forecasts from single models and ensemble prediction systems. Nonlinear Proc Geoph 8:401–417CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Barnes LR, Gruntfest EC, Hayden MH, Schultz DM, Benight C (2007) False alarms and close calls: A conceptual model of warning accuracy. Weather Forecast 22:1140–1147CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bougeault P (2002) WGNE survey of verification methods for numerical prediction of weather elements and severe weather events. CAS/JSC WGNE Report No. 18, Appendix C. http://www.wmo.ch/web/wcrp/ documents/wgne18rpt.pdfGoogle Scholar
  4. Briggs WM, Levine RA (1997) Wavelets and field forecast verification. Mon Weather Rev 125:1329–1341CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Casati B, Ross G, Stephenson DB (2004) A new intensity-scale approach for the verification of spatial precipitation forecasts. Meteorol Appl 11:141–154CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Cherubini T, Ghelli A, Lalaurette F (2002) Verification of precipitation forecasts over the Alpine region using a high-density observing network. Weather Forecast 17:238–249CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Davis C, Brown B, Bullock R (2006) Object-based verification of precipitation forecasts. Part I: Methods and application to mesoscale rain areas. Mon Weather Rev 134:1772–1784CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Ebert EE (2008) Fuzzy verification of high resolution gridded forecasts: A review and proposed framework. Meteorol Appl (in press)Google Scholar
  9. Ebert EE, McBride JL (2000) Verification of precipitation in weather systems: Determination of systematic errors. J Hydrol 239:179–202CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Ebert EE, Damrath U, Wergen W, Baldwin ME (2003) The WGNE assessment of short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts. B Am Meteorol Soc 84:481–492CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Ebert EE, Janowiak JE, Kidd C (2007) Comparison of near-real-time precipitation estimates from satellite observations and numerical models. B Am Meteorol Soc 88:47–64CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. de Elia R, Laprise R, Denis B (2002) Forecasting skill limits of nested, limited-area models: A perfect-model approach. Mon Weather Rev 130:2006–2023CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Finley JP (1884) Tornado predictions. American Meteorological Journal 1:85–88Google Scholar
  14. Germann U, Berenguer M, Sempere-Torres D, Salvadè G (2006) Ensemble radar precipitation estimation – a new topic on the radar horizon. In: Proceedings 4th European Conference on Radar in Meteorology and Hydrology. 18–22 September 2006, Barcelona, Spain. http://www.erad2006.orgGoogle Scholar
  15. Göber M, Wilson CA, Milton SF, Stephenson DB (2004) Fairplay in the verification of operational quantitative precipitation forecasts. J Hydrol 288:225–236CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Hamill TM, Juras J (2006) Measuring Forecast Skill: Is it Real Skill or is it the Varying Climatology? Q J Roy Meteor Soc 132: 2905–2923CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Harris D, Foufoula-Georgiou E, Droegemeier KK, Levit JJ (2001) Multiscale statistical properties of a high-resolution precipitation forecast. J Hydrometeorol 2:406–418CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Hense A, Adrian G, Kottmeier CH, Simmer C, Wulfmeyer V (2003) Priority Program of the German Research Foundation: Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. Research proposal available at http://www.meteo.uni-bonn.de/projekte/SPPMeteo/reports/SPPLeitAntrag_English.pdfGoogle Scholar
  19. ICP (2007) Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Intercomparison Project (ICP). http://www.ral.ucar.edu/projects/icp/index.htmlGoogle Scholar
  20. Jenkner J, Dierer S, Schwierz C, Leuenberger D (2008a) Conditional QPF verification using synoptic weather patterns – a 3-year hindcast climatology (in preparation)Google Scholar
  21. Jenkner J, Dierer S, Schwierz C, Leuenberger D (2008b) Quantile–based short–range QPF evaluation over Switzerland (to be submitted)Google Scholar
  22. Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB (2003) Forecast verification. A practitioner’s guide in atmospheric science. Wiley and Sons Ltd, 240 ppGoogle Scholar
  23. JWGV (2004) Forecast verification – Issues, methods and FAQ. http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/staff/eee/verif/verif_web_page.htmlGoogle Scholar
  24. Keil C, Craig GC (2007) A displacement-based error measure applied in a regional ensemble forecasting system. Mon Weather Rev 135:3248–3259CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Leuenberger D (2005) High-resolution radar rainfall assimilation: Exploratory studies with latent heat nudging. Ph.D. thesis, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, Nr. 15884. http://e-collection.ethbib.ethz.ch/cgi-bin/show.pl?type=diss& nr=15884Google Scholar
  26. Marzban C, Sandgathe S (2006) Cluster analysis for verification of precipitation fields. Weather Forecast 21:824–838CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Marzban C, Sandgathe S (2007) Cluster analysis for object-oriented verification of fields: A variation. Mon Weather Rev (in press)Google Scholar
  28. Mittermaier MP (2007) Improving short-range high-resolution model precipitation forecast skill using time-lagged ensembles. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 133:1–19CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Murphy AH (1996) The Finley affair: A signal event in the history of forecast verification. Weather Forecast 11:3–20CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Nurmi P (2003) Recommendations on the verification of local weather forecasts. ECMWF Tech. Memo 430:18.t http://www.ecmwf.int/ publications/library/ecpublications/_pdf/tm430.pdfGoogle Scholar
  31. Oberto E, Turco M, Bertolotto P (2006) Latest results in the precipitation verification over Northern Italy. COSMO Newsletter 6:180–184Google Scholar
  32. Richardson DS (2000) Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 126:649–667CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Roberts NM, Lean HW (2007) Scale-selective verification of rainfall accumulations from high-resolution forecasts of convective events. Mon Weather Rev (in press)Google Scholar
  34. Rossa A, Arpagaus M, Zala E (2003) Weather situation-dependent stratification of precipitation and upper-air verification of the Alpine Model (aLMo). COSMO Newsletter 3:123–138Google Scholar
  35. Rossa AM, Arpagaus M, Zala E (2004) Weather situation-dependent stratification of radar-based precipitation verification of the Alpine Model (aLMo). ERAD Publication Series 2:502–508Google Scholar
  36. Rossa et al. (2005) The COST 731 Action MoU: Propagation of uncertainty in advanced meteo-hydrological forecast systems. http://www.cost.esf.orgGoogle Scholar
  37. Schaake JC, Hamill TM, Buizza R, Clarke M (2007) HEPEX, the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment. B Am Meteorol Soc 88:1541–1547CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Schubiger F, Kaufmann P, Walser A, Zala E (2006) Verification of the COSMO model in the year 2006, WG5 contribution of Switzerland. COSMO Newsletter 6:9Google Scholar
  39. Stamus PA, Carr FH, Baumhefner DP (1992) Application of a scale-separation verification technique to regional forecast models. Mon Weather Rev 120:149–163CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Stanski HR, Wilson LJ, Burrows WR (1989) Survey of common verification methods in meteorology. World Weather Watch Tech. Rept. No.8, WMO/TD No.358, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 114 ppGoogle Scholar
  41. Stephenson DB (2000) Use of the ‘odds ratio’ for diagnosing forecast skill. Weather Forecast 15:221–232CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Stephenson DB, Casati B, Wilson CA (2007) The extreme dependency score: A new non-vanishing verification measure for the assessment of deterministic forecasts of rare binary events. Meteorol Appl (in press)Google Scholar
  43. Steppeler J, Doms G, Schättler U, Bitzer H-W, Gassmann A, Damrath U, Gregoric G (2003) Meso-gamma scale forecasts using the non-hydrostatic model LM. Meteorol Atmos Phys 82:75–96CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Wanner H, Salvisberg E, Rickli R, Schuepp M (1998) 50 years of Alpine Weather Statistics (AWS), Meteorol Z N.F. 7:99–111Google Scholar
  45. Wernli H, Paulat M, Hagen M, Frei C (2008) SAL – a novel quality measure for the verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts, Mon Weather Rev (submitted)Google Scholar
  46. Wilks DS (2006) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. an introduction. 2nd edn. Academic Press, San Diego, 627 ppGoogle Scholar
  47. Wilson C (2001) Review of current methods and tools for verification of numerical forecasts of precipitation. COST717 Working Group Report on Approaches to verification. http://www.smhi.se/cost717/Google Scholar
  48. Yates E, Anquetin S, Ducrocq V, Creutin J-D, Ricard D, Chancibault K (2006) Point and areal validation of forecast precipitation fields. Meteorol Appl 13:1–20CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Zala E, Leuenberger D (2007) Update on weather-situation dependent COSMO-7 verification against radar data. COSMO Newsletter 7:1–4Google Scholar
  50. Zawadzki I (1973) Statistical properties of precipitation patterns. J Appl Meteorol 12:459–472CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Zepeda-Arce J, Foufoula-Georgiou E, Droegemeier KK (2000) Space-time rainfall organization and its role in validating quantitative precipitation forecasts. J Geophys Res 105:10129–10146CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  • Andrea Rossa
    • 1
  • Pertti Nurmi
    • 2
  • Elizabeth Ebert
    • 3
  1. 1.Centro Meteorologico di TeoloARPA VenetoItaly
  2. 2.Meteorological ResearchFinnish Meteorological InstituteFinland
  3. 3.Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchBureau of MeteorologyAustralia

Personalised recommendations