Agile Estimation with Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

Work estimation is very important for Agile projects, especially for time critical ones. Inaccurate effort estimation can cause over-commitment, scope creep and trust in the team. Though re-estimation sometimes is necessary, it usually doesn’t happen due to the time and budget constraints. Moreover, the initial communication and commitment to business users and stakeholders make it more difficult to re-estimate and revise the project plan and launch date. This paper discusses how to manage the estimation uncertainty, reduce the risk of inaccurate estimation, and better communicate to upper management by using Monte Carlo model simulation.