Pests Under Global Change — Meeting Your Future Landlords?

  • Robert W. Sutherst
  • Richard H. A. Baker
  • Stella M. Coakley
  • Richard Harrington
  • Darren J. Kriticos
  • Harald Scherm
Part of the Global Change — The IGBP Series book series (GLOBALCHANGE)


Global Change Glob Change Biol Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus Enemy Release Hypothesis Nonindigenous Species 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. AtKisson A (1999) Believing Cassandra. Chelsea Green Publishing Company, White River Junction, VTGoogle Scholar
  2. Awmack CS, Harrington R, Leather SR (1997a) Host plant effects on the performance of the aphid Aulacorthum solani (Kalt.) (Homoptera: Aphididae) at ambient and elevated CO2. Glob Change Biol 3:545–549Google Scholar
  3. Awmack CS, Woodcock CM, Harrington R (1997b) Climate change may increase vulnerability of aphids to natural enemies. Ecol Entomol 22:366–368Google Scholar
  4. Ayres MP, Lombardero MJ (2000) Assesing the consequences of global change for forest disturbance from herbivores and pathogens. Sci Total Environ 262:263–286Google Scholar
  5. Baker R, MacLeod A, Cannon R, Jarvis C, Walters K, Barrow E, Hulme M (1998) Predicting the impacts of a non-indigenous pest on the UK potato crop under global climate change: reviewing the evidence for the Colorado beetle, Leptinotarsa decemlineata. Brighton Crop Protection Conference — Pests and Diseases, Vol. III. BCPC, Farnham, UK, pp 979–984Google Scholar
  6. Baker R, Sansford C, Jarvis C, Cannon R, MacLeod A, Walters K (2000) The role of climatic mapping in predicting the potential geographical distribution of non-indigenous pests under current and future climates. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment 82:57–71Google Scholar
  7. Baker R, Cannon R, MacLeod A (2003) Predicting the potential distribution of alien pests in the UK under global climate change: Diabrotica virgifera virgifera. Proceedings of the British Crop Protection Conference — Crop Science and Technology, pp 1201–1208Google Scholar
  8. Balanya J, Segarra C, Prevosti A, Serra L (1994) Colonization of America by Drosophila subobscura: the founder event and a rapid expansion. J Hered 85:427–432Google Scholar
  9. Bale JS, Masters GJ, Hodkinson ID, Awmack C, Bezimer TM, Brown BK, Butterfield J, Buse A, Coulson JC, Farrar J, Good JEG, Harrington R, Hartley S, Jones TH, Lindroth RL, Press MC, Symrnioudis I, Watt AD, Wittaker JB (2002) Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores. Glob Change Biol 8:1–16Google Scholar
  10. Barton NH, Hewitt GM (1989) Adaptation, speciation and hybrid zones. Nature 341:497–503Google Scholar
  11. Berry PM, Dawson TP, Harrison PA, Pearson RG (2002) Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of species in Britain and Ireland. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 11:453–462Google Scholar
  12. Bradshaw WE, Holzapfel CM (2001) Genetic shift in photoperiodic response correlated with global warming. Proceedings National Adacemy of Sciences U.S.A. 98: 14509–14511Google Scholar
  13. Brasier CM (2001) Rapid evolution of introduced plant pathogens via interspecific hybridization. Bioscience 51:123–133Google Scholar
  14. Brimnen TA, Boland GJ (2003) A review of the non-target effects of fungi used to biologically control plant diseases. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment 100:3–16Google Scholar
  15. Brown JH, Stevens GC, Kaufman DM (1996) The geographic range: size, shape, boundaries, and internal structure. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 27:597–623Google Scholar
  16. Cai W, Whetton PH, Pittock B (2001) Fluctuations of the relationship between ENSO and northeast Austalian rainfall. Climate Dyamics 17:421–432Google Scholar
  17. Calvin WH (1998) The great climate flip-flop. The Atlantic Monthly 281:47–64Google Scholar
  18. Chakraborty S, Datta S (2003) How will plant pathogens adapt to host plant resistance at elevated CO2 under a changing climate. New Phytol 159:733–742Google Scholar
  19. Chakraborty S, Pangga IB, Lupton J, Hart L, Room PM, Yates D (2000a) Production and dispersal of Colletotrichum gloeosporioides spores on Stylosanthes scabra under elevated CO2. Environ Pollut 108:381–387Google Scholar
  20. Chakraborty S, von Tiedemann A, Teng PS (2000b) Climate change: Potential impact on plant diseases. Environ Pollut 108:317–326Google Scholar
  21. Coakley SM, Scherm H, Chakraborty S (1999) Climate change and plant disease management. Annu Rev Phytopathol 37:399–426Google Scholar
  22. Cocu N, Harrington R, Hulle M, Rounsevell MDA (2005) Spatial autocorrelation as a tool for identifying the geographical patterns of aphid annual abundance. Agricultural and Forest Entomology 7:31–43Google Scholar
  23. Colautti R, Ricciardi A, Grigorovich I, MacIsaac H (2004) Is invasion success explained by the enemy release hypothesis? Ecol Lett 7:721–733Google Scholar
  24. Colborn T, Dumanoski D, Myers JP (1996) Our Stolen Future: Are we Threatening our Fertility, Intelligence and Survival? A Scientific Detective Story. Dutton, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  25. Collingham YC, Wadsworth RA, Huntley BH, Hulme PE (2000) Predicting the spatial distribution of non-indigenous riparian weeds: issues of spatial scale and extent. J Appl Ecol 37:13–27Google Scholar
  26. D’Antonio CM, Vitousek PM (1992) Biological invasions by exotic grasses, the grass/fire cycle, and global change. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 23:63–87Google Scholar
  27. Davis AJ, Lawton JH, Shorrocks B, Jenkinson L (1998) Individualistic species responses invalidate simple physiological models of community dynamics under global environmental change. J Anim Ecol 67:600–612Google Scholar
  28. Dixon AFG (2003) Climate change and phenological asynchrony. Ecol Entomol 28:380–381Google Scholar
  29. FAO (2004) Pest risk analysis for quarantine pests including analysis of environmental risks and living modified organisms. International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures. No. 11. FAO, RomeGoogle Scholar
  30. Farquhar, G (1997) Where could Australia’s forests move with change in atmospheric composition: some ideas from plant physiology and the paleo-record CSIRO and Bureau of Resource Science Canberra pp 1–7Google Scholar
  31. Fleming RA, Tatchell GM (1995) Shifts in the flight periods of British aphids: a response to climate warming? In: Harrington R, Stork NE (eds) Insects in a changing environment. Proceedings of the 17th Royal Entomological Society Symposia on I, 7–10 September 1993, Harpenden, Hertfordshire. Academic Press, London, pp 505–508Google Scholar
  32. Fuhrer J (2003) Agroecosystem responses to combinations of elevated CO2, ozone, and global climate change. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment 97:1–20Google Scholar
  33. Garrett K, Bowden R, (2002) An Allee effect reduces the invasive potential of Tilletia indica. Phytopathology 92, 1152–1159Google Scholar
  34. Gavazzi M, Seiler J, Aust W, Zedaker S (2000) The influence of elevated carbon dioxide and water availability on herbaceous weed development and growth of transplanted loblolly pine (Pinus taeda). Environ Exp Bot 44:185–194Google Scholar
  35. Geber MA, Dawson TE (1993) Evolutionary responses of plants to global change. In: Kareiva PM, Kingsolver JG, Huey RB (eds) Biotic Interactions and Global Change. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA, pp 179–197Google Scholar
  36. Georghiou GP (1994) Principles of insecticide resistance management. Phytoprotection 75:Suppl. 51–59Google Scholar
  37. Giampietro M, Pimentel D, Bukkens SGF (1999) General trends of technological changes in agriculture. Crit Rev Plant Sci 18:261–282Google Scholar
  38. Gregory PJ, Ingram JSI, Campbell B, Goudriaan J, Hunt LA, Landsberg JJ, Linder S, Stafford-Smith M, Sutherst RW, Valentin C (1999) Managed productions systems. In: B. Walker, W. Steffen, J. Canadell, J. Ingram (eds) The terrestrial biosphere and global change. Implications for natural and managed ecosystems. Cambridge University Press, London, pp 229–270Google Scholar
  39. Halaj J, Cady A, Uetz. GW (2000) Modular habitat refugia enhance generalist predators and lower plant damage in soybeans. Environ Entomol 29:83–393Google Scholar
  40. Harrington, R (2003) Turning up the heat on pests and diseases: a case study for Barley yellow dwarf virus. Proceedings of the British Crop Protection Conference — Crop Science and Technology, pp 1195–1200Google Scholar
  41. Harrington R, Tatchell GM, Bale JS (1990) Weather, life cycle strategy and spring populations of aphids. Acta Phytopathol Entomol Hung 25:423–432Google Scholar
  42. Harrington R, Bale JS, Tatchell GM (1995) Aphids in a changing climate. In: Harrington R, Stork NE (eds) Insects in a Changing Environment. Proceedings of the 17th Royal Entomological Society Symposia on I, 7–10 September 1993, Harpenden, Hertfordshire. Academic Press, London, pp 125–155Google Scholar
  43. Harrington R, Clark SJ, Welham SJ, Verrier SJ, Denholm CH, Hullé M, Maurice D, Rounsevell MDA, Cocu N (in press) EU EXAMINE Consortium. Environmental change and the phenology of European aphids. Glob Change BiolGoogle Scholar
  44. Harrington R, Verrier P, Denholm C, Hullé M, Maurice D, Bell N, Knight J, Rounsevell M, Cocu N, Barbagallo S, Basky Z, Coceano P-G, Derron J, Katis N, Lukášová H, Marrkula I, Mohar J, Pickup J, Rolot J-L, Ruszkowska M, Schliephake E, Seco-Fernandez M-V, Sigvald R, Tsitsipis J, Ulber, B (2004) ‘EXAMINE’ (EXploitation of Aphid Monitoring in Europe): An EU Thematic Network for the study of global change impacts on aphids. In: Simon JC, Dedryver CA, Rispe C, Hullé M (eds) Aphids in a New Millennium Proceedings 6th International Aphid Symposium. INRA, Versailles, pp 45–49Google Scholar
  45. Hartley S, Jones T (2003) Plant diversity and insect herbivores: effects of environmental change in contrasting model systems. Oikos 101:6–17Google Scholar
  46. Hendrey GR (1992) Global greenhouse studies: need for a new approach to ecosystem manipulation. Critical Reviews in Plant Science 11:61–74Google Scholar
  47. Hennessy KJ, Suppiah R, Page CM (1999) Australian rainfall changes. Aust Met Mag 48:1–13Google Scholar
  48. Hijmans RJ, Grünwald NJ, van Haren RJF, MacKerron DKL, Scherm H (2000) Potato late blight simulation for global change research. GILB Newsletter 12:1–3Google Scholar
  49. Hódar JA, Zamora R (2004) Hebivory and climatic warming: a Mediterranean outbreaking caterpillar attacks a relict, boreal pine species. Biodivers Conserv 13:493–500Google Scholar
  50. Hódar JA, Castro G, Zamora R (2002) Pine processionary caterpillar Thaumetopoea pityocampa as a new threat for relict Mediterranean Scots pine forests under climatic warming. Biol Conserv 110:123–129Google Scholar
  51. Hodkinson I (1999) Species response to global environmental change or why ecophysiological models are important: a reply to Davis et al. Journal of Animal Ecology 68, 1259–1262Google Scholar
  52. Hogg EH, Brandt JP, Kochtubajda B (2002) Growth and dieback of aspen forests in northwestern Alberta, Canada, in relation to climate and insects. Can J For Res 32:823–832Google Scholar
  53. Houghton JT, Meira Filho LG, Callander BA, Harris N, Kattenberg A, Maskell K (1996) Climate change 1995: The science of climate change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  54. Hughes L (2000) Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent? TREE 15:56–61Google Scholar
  55. IPCC (2001a) Climate change 2001 Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  56. IPCC (2001b) Technical summary. Climate change (2001) Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. A report of working group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, GenevaGoogle Scholar
  57. Jenkins N, Hoffmann A (2001) Distribution of Drosophila serrata Malloch (Diptera: Drosophilidae) in Australia with particular reference to the southern border. Australian Journal of Entomology 40, 41–48Google Scholar
  58. Jones R (2000) Analysing the risk of climate change using an irrigation demand model. Clim Res 14:89–100Google Scholar
  59. Jones T, Thompson L, Lawton J, Bezemer T, Bardgett R, Blackburn T, Bruce K, Cannon P, Hall G, Hartley S, Howson G, Jones C, Kampichler C, Kandeler E, Richie D (1998) Impacts of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide on model terrestrial ecosystems. Science 280:441–443Google Scholar
  60. Jones PD, Lister DH, Jaggard KW, Pidgeon JD (2003) Future climate impact on the productivity of sugar beets (Beta vulgaris) in Europe. Clim Change 58:93–108Google Scholar
  61. Jules ES, Kauffman MJ, Ritts WD, Carroll AL (2002) Spread of an invasive pathogen over a variable landscape: A nonnative root rot on Port Orford cedar. Ecology 83:3167–3181Google Scholar
  62. Julien MH, Skarratt B, Maywald GF (1995) Potential geographical distribution of alligator weed and its biological control by Agasicles hygrophila. J Aquat Plant Manag 33:55–60Google Scholar
  63. Kamata N, Esaki K, Kato K, Igeta Y, Wada K (2002) Potential impact of global warming on deciduous oak dieback caused by ambrosia fungus Raffaelea sp. carried by ambrosia beetle Platypus quercivorus ( Coleoptera: Platypodidae) in Japan. Bull Entomol Res 92:119–126Google Scholar
  64. Karl TR, Jones PD, Knight RW (1993) A new perspective on global warming: asymmetric trends of daily maximum and minimum temperatures. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 74:1007–1023Google Scholar
  65. Karnosky DF, Percy KE, Xiang B, Callan B, Noormets A, Mankovska B, Hopkin A, Sober J, Jones W, Dickson RE, Isebrands JG (2002) Interacting elevated CO2 and tropospheric O3 predisposes aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) to infection by rust (Melampsora medusae f.sp. tremuloidae). Glob Change Biol 8:329–338Google Scholar
  66. Körner C (2000) Biosphere responses to CO2 enrichment. Ecol Appl 10:1590–1619Google Scholar
  67. Körner C, Morgan J, Richard Norby R (2007) CO2 fertilization: when, where, how much? In: Canadell J, Pataki D, Pitelka L (eds) Terrestrial ecosystems in a changing world. The IGBP Series, Springer-Verlag, BerlinGoogle Scholar
  68. Krimsky, S (2000) Hormonal Chaos. The Scientific and Social Origins of the Environmental Endocrine Hypothesis John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MDGoogle Scholar
  69. Kriticos D, Randall P (2001) A comparison of systems to analyse potential weed distributions. In: Groves RH, Panetta FD, Virtue J (eds) Weed Risk Assessment. CSIRO, Melbourne, pp 61–79Google Scholar
  70. Kriticos DJ, Brown JR, Radford ID, Nicholas M (1999) Plant population ecology and biological control: Acacia nilotica as a case study. Biological Control. 16:230–239Google Scholar
  71. Kriticos DJ, Sutherst RW, Brown JR, Adkins SW, Maywald GF (2003a) Climate change and biotic invasions: a case history of a tropical woody vine. Biol Invasions 5:147–165Google Scholar
  72. Kriticos DJ, Sutherst RW, Brown JR, Adkins SW, Maywald GF (2003b) Climate change and the potential distribution of an invasive alien plant: Acacia nilotica ssp. indica in Australia. J Appl Ecol 40:111–124Google Scholar
  73. Landsberg, JJ (1989) The greenhouse effect: Issues and directions for Australia. Occasional Paper No 4 CSIRO, MelbourneGoogle Scholar
  74. Lawton JH (2000) Community Ecology in a Changing World. Inter Research, Oldendorf/Luhe, GermanyGoogle Scholar
  75. Levine JM, D’Antonio C M (2003) Forecasting biological invasions with increasing international trade. Conserv Biol 322–326Google Scholar
  76. Lewis WJ, van Lenteren JC, Phatak SC, Tumlinson JHI (1997) A total system approach to sustainable pest management. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 94: 12243–12248Google Scholar
  77. Linacre E (1992) Climate data and resources: a reference and guide. Routledge, LondonGoogle Scholar
  78. Lok C (2001) Unlucky bamboo. Asian mosquitoes stow away on plant shipment. NatureGoogle Scholar
  79. Marco GJ, Hollingworth RM, Durham W (1987) Silent Spring Revisited. American Chemical Society, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  80. Mulder C, Roy B (2003) Climate change and invertebrate herbivory on boreal understory plants: A survey. Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting. Abstracts. pp 88–245Google Scholar
  81. Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de V B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Grübler A, Jung T, Kram T, Lebre La Rovere E, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher H, Price L, Riahi K, Roehrl A, Rogner H, Sankovski A, Schlesinger M, Shukla P, Smith S, Swart R, van Rooijen S, Victor N, Dadi Z (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 599 ppGoogle Scholar
  82. New M, Lister D, Hulme M, Makin I (2002) A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas. Clim Res 21:1–25Google Scholar
  83. Noor M, Pascual M, Smith K (2000) Genetic variation in the spread of Drosophila subobscura from a nonequilibrium population. Evolution 54:696–703Google Scholar
  84. Oerke EC, Dehne HW (2004) Safeguarding production losses in major crops and the role of crop protection. Crop Prot 23:275–285Google Scholar
  85. Pangga IB, Chakraborty S, Yates D (2004) Canopy size and reduced resistance in Stylosanthes scabra determine anthracnose severity at high CO2. Phytopathology 93:221–227Google Scholar
  86. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37–42Google Scholar
  87. Parry M, Carter T (1998) Climate impact and adaptation assessment. Earthscan, LondonGoogle Scholar
  88. Parry ML, Livermore M (1999) A new assessment of the global effect of climate change. Global Environmental Change 9: S1–S107Google Scholar
  89. Peperzak L (2003) Climate change and harmful algal blooms in the North Sea. Acta Oecol 24: S139–S144Google Scholar
  90. Percy KE, Awmack CS, Lindroth RL, Kubiske ME, Kopper BJ, Isebrands JG, Pregitzer KS, Hendrey GR, Dickson RE, Zak DR, Oksanen E, Sober J, Harrington R, Karnosky DF (2002) Altered performance of forest pests under atmospheres enriched by CO2 and O3. Nature 420:403–407Google Scholar
  91. Perrings P, Williamson M, Barbier E, Delfino D, Dalmazzone S, Shogren J, Simmons P, Watkinson A (2002) Biological invasion risks and the public good: an economic perspective. Conserv Ecol 6: 1 [online] URL: Scholar
  92. Peterson AT, Ortega-Huerta MA, Bartley J, Sanchez-Cordero V, Soberon J, Buddemeier RH, Stockwell DRB (2002) Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios. Nature 416:626–629)Google Scholar
  93. Pimentel D, Lach L, Zuniga R, Morrison D (2000a) Environmental and economic costs of nonindigenous species in the United States. Bioscience 50:53–65Google Scholar
  94. Pimentel D, McNair S, Janecka J, Wightman J, Simmonds C, O’Connell C, Wong E, Russel L, Zern J, Aquino T, Tsomondo T (2000b) Economic and environmental threats of alien plant, animal, and microbe invasions. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 84:1–20Google Scholar
  95. Ragsdale NN (2000) The impact of the Food Quality Protection Act on the future of plant disease management. Annu Rev Phytopathol 38:577–596Google Scholar
  96. Ramakrishnan PS, Vitousek PM (1989) Ecosystem-level processes and the consequences of biological invasions. In: Drake JA, Mooney HA, di Castri F, Groves RH, Kruger FJ, Rejmánek M, Williamson M (eds) Biological Invasions: a Global Perspective. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, pp 281–300Google Scholar
  97. Reynolds JF, Acock B (1997) Modularity and genericness in plant and ecosystem models. Ecol Model 94:7–16Google Scholar
  98. Rodriguez-Trelles F, Rodriguez MA, Scheiner SM (1998) Tracking the genetic effects of global warming: Drosophila and other model systems. Conserv Ecol 2(2): [online] URL: Scholar
  99. Roelfs AP (1982) Effects of barberry eradication on stem rust in the United States. Plant Dis 66:177–181Google Scholar
  100. Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, Pounds JA (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421:57–60Google Scholar
  101. Roy BA, Güsewell S, Harte J (2004) Response of plant pathogens and herbivores to warming experiment. Ecology 85:2570–2581Google Scholar
  102. Russell P (1999) Fungicide resistance management into the next millennium. Pesticide Outlook 10:213–215Google Scholar
  103. Sands DPA, Bakker P, Dori FM (1993) Cotesia erionotae (Wilkinson) (Hymenoptera:Braconidae), for biological control of banana skipper, Erionota thrax (L.) (Lepidoptera:Hesperiidae) in Papua New Guinea. Micronesica Suppl 4:99–105Google Scholar
  104. Scherm H (2004) Climate Change: Can we predict the impacts on plant pathology and pest management. Can J Plant Pathol 26:267–273Google Scholar
  105. Scherm H, Coakley SM (2003) Plant pathogens in a changing world. Australas Plant Pathol 32:157–165Google Scholar
  106. Scherm H, van Bruggen A (1994) Global warming and non-linear growth: How important are changes in average temperature? Phytopathology 84:1380–1384Google Scholar
  107. Scherm H, Sutherst RW, Harrington R, Ingram JSI (1999) Global networking for assessing impacts of global change on plant pests. Environ Pollut 107:1–9Google Scholar
  108. Schoute JF, Finke PA, Veeneklaas FR, Wolfert HPE (1995) Scenario studies for the rural environment. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The NetherlandsGoogle Scholar
  109. Scott JM, Heglund PJ, Morrison MLE (2002) Predicting Species Occurences: Issues of Accuracy and Scale. In: Townsend Peterson A, DRB Stockwell, DA Kluza (eds) Distributional Prediction Based on Ecological Niche Modeling of Primary Occurence Data. Island Press, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  110. Silvertown J (2004) The ghost of competition past in the phylogeny of island endemic plants. J Ecol 92:168–173Google Scholar
  111. Smith JB, Klein RJT, Huq S (2003) Climate Change, Adaptive Capacity and Development. Imperial College Press, LondonGoogle Scholar
  112. Stephens P, Sutherland W, Freckleton R (1999) What is the Allee effect? Oikos 87, 185–190Google Scholar
  113. Sutherst RW (1983) Variation in the numbers of the cattle tick, Boophilus microplus (Canestrini), in a moist habitat made marginal by low temperatures. J Aust Entomol Soc 22:1–5Google Scholar
  114. Sutherst RW (1998) Implications of global change and climate variability for vector-borne diseases: generic approaches to impact assessments. Int J Parasitol 28:935–945Google Scholar
  115. Sutherst RW (2000) Climate change and invasive species — a conceptual framework. In: HA Mooney, RJ Hobbs (eds) Invasive species in a changing world. Island Press, Washington DC, pp 211–240Google Scholar
  116. Sutherst RW (2001) The vulnerability of animal and human health to parasites under global change. Int J Parasitol 31:933–948Google Scholar
  117. Sutherst RW (2003) Prediction of species geographical ranges. Guest Editorial. J Biogeogr 30:1–12Google Scholar
  118. Sutherst RW (2004) Global change and human vulnerability to vector-born diseases. Clin Microbiol Rev 17:136–173Google Scholar
  119. Sutherst RW, Comins HN (1979) The management of acaricide resistance in the cattle tick, Boophilus microplus (Canestrini) (Acari: Ixodidae), in Australia. Bull Entomol Res 69:519–537Google Scholar
  120. Sutherst RW, Maywald GF (1985) A computerised system for matching climates in ecology. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment 13:281–300Google Scholar
  121. Sutherst R, Yonow T, Chakraborty S, O’Donnell C, White N (1996) A generic approach to defining impacts of climate change on pests, weeds and diseases in Australasia. In: Bouma W, Pearman G, Manning M (eds) Greenhouse: coping with climate change. CSIRO, Melbourne, pp 281–307Google Scholar
  122. Sutherst RW, Ingram J, Scherm H (1998) Global change and vectorborne diseases. Parasitol Today 14:297–299Google Scholar
  123. Sutherst RW, Murdiyarso D, Widayati A (1999) Modelling global change impacts on pests Report No. 7. Biotrop-GCTE IC-SEA Bogor, Indonesia pp 108Google Scholar
  124. Sutherst RW, Collyer BS, Yonow T (2000a) The vulnerability of Australian horticulture to the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni, under climate change. Aust J Agric Res 51: 467–480Google Scholar
  125. Sutherst RW, Maywald GF, Russell BL (2000b) Estimating vulnerability under global change: modular modelling of pests. Agric Ecosyst Environ 82:303–319Google Scholar
  126. Sutherst RW, Maywald GF, Bourne AS (in press) Including species-interactions in risk assessments for global change. Glob Change BiolGoogle Scholar
  127. Sykes MT, Prentice IC (2004) Boreal forest futures. Modelling the controls on tree species range limits and transient responses to climate change. Water, Air, and Soil Polution 82: 415–428Google Scholar
  128. Taylor CM, Hastings A (2005) Allee Effects in Biological Invasions. Ecology Letters 8[8], 895–908Google Scholar
  129. Taylor F, Spalding JB (1989) Timing of diapause in relation to temporally variable catastrophes. Journal of Evolutionary Bioilogy 2:285–297Google Scholar
  130. Teng PS, Heong KL, Kropff MJ, Nutter FW, Sutherst RW (1996) Linked pest-crop models under global change. In: Walker B, Steffen W (eds) Global change and terrestrial ecosystems. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  131. Thomas MB, Willis AJ (1998) Biocontrol — risky but necessary? Trends in Ecology and Evolution 13:325–329.Google Scholar
  132. Thomas D, Cameron A, Green R, Bakkenes M, Beaumont L, Collingham Y, Erasmus B, De S M, Grainger A, Hannah L, Hughes L, Huntley B, Van J A, Midgley GML, Ortega-Huerta M, Peterson A, Phillips O, Williams S (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427:145–148Google Scholar
  133. Thuiller W (2003) Biomod — optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change. Glob Change Biol 9:1353–1362Google Scholar
  134. USDA-ERS (2002) Floriculture and nursery crop situation and outlook yearbook Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  135. Vaughn KC (2003) Herbicide resistance work in the United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service. Pest Manag Sci 59:764–769Google Scholar
  136. Visser ME, Holleman LJM (2001) Warmer springs disrupt the synchrony of oak and winter moth phenology. Proc. Royal Soc. Lond. B 268:289–294Google Scholar
  137. Vitousek PM (1994) Beyond global warming: Ecology and global change. Ecology 75:1861–1876Google Scholar
  138. Voigt W, Perner J, Davis AJ, Eggers T, Schumacher J, Bahrman R, Fabian B, Heinrich W, Kohler G, Lichter D, Marstaller R, Sander FW (2003) Trophic levels are differentially sensitive to climate. Ecology 84:2444–2453Google Scholar
  139. Wayne P, Foster S, Connolly J, Bazzaz F, Epstein P (2002) Production of allergenic pollen by ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is increased in CO2-enriched atmospheres. Annals of Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology 88:279–282Google Scholar
  140. Wharton T, Kriticos D (2004) The fundamental and realised niche of the Monterey pine aphid, Essigella californica (Essig) (Hemiptera: Aphididae: implications for managing softwood plantations in Australia. Divers Distrib 10:253–262Google Scholar
  141. Woiwod I, Harrington R (1994) Flying in the face of change: the Rothamstead insect survey. In: Leigh RA, Johnston AE (eds) Long-term Experiments in Agricultural and Ecological Sciences. CAB International, Wallingford, UK, pp 321–342Google Scholar
  142. Woodward FI (1987) Climate and Plant Distribution Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  143. Yamamura K, Kiritani K (1998) A simple method to estimate the potential increase in the number of generations under global warming in temperate zones. Appl Entomol Zool 33: 289–298Google Scholar
  144. Yonow T, Sutherst RW (1998) The geographical distribution of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni, in relation to climate. Aust J Agric Res 49:935–953Google Scholar
  145. Yonow T, Kriticos DJ, Medd RW (2004) The potential geographic range of Pyrenophora semeniperda. Phytopathology 94:805–812Google Scholar
  146. Ziska LH (2003a) Climate change, plant biology and public health. World Resource Review 15:271–288Google Scholar
  147. Ziska LH (2003b) Evaluation of the growth response of six invasive species to past, present and future carbon dioxide concentrations. J Exp Bot 54:395–404Google Scholar
  148. Ziska LH (2003c) The impact of nitrogen supply on the potential response of a noxious, invasive weed, Canada thistle (Cirsium arvense) to recent increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Physiol Plant 119:105–112Google Scholar
  149. Ziska LH (2003d) Rising carbon dioxide and weed ecology. In: Inderjit (ed) Weed Biology and Management. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 159–176Google Scholar
  150. Ziska LH, Caufield FA (2000) Rising CO2 and pollen production of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) a known allergyinducing species: implications for public health. Aust J Plant Physiol 27:893–898Google Scholar
  151. Ziska LH, Gebhard DE, Frenz DA, Faulkner S, Singer BD (2003) Cities as harbingers of climate change: Common ragweed, urbanization, and public health. J Allergy Clin Immunol 111:290–295Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  • Robert W. Sutherst
    • 1
    • 2
  • Richard H. A. Baker
    • 3
  • Stella M. Coakley
    • 4
  • Richard Harrington
    • 5
  • Darren J. Kriticos
    • 6
  • Harald Scherm
    • 7
  1. 1.CSIRO EntomologyIndooroopilly
  2. 2.School of Integrative BiologyUniversity of QueenslandSt LuciaAustralia
  3. 3.Central Science LaboratorySand Hutton, YorkUK
  4. 4.Department of Botany and Plant PathologyOregon State UniversityCorvallisUSA
  5. 5.Rothamsted ResearchHarpenden, HertfordshireUK
  6. 6.Forest Biosecurity and Protection UnitEnsisRotoruaNew Zealand
  7. 7.Department of Plant PathologyUniversity of GeorgiaAthensUSA

Personalised recommendations