Advertisement

Spatiotemporal Assessment of Vegetation Trends in the Post-Soviet Central Asia

  • Olena DubovykEmail author
Chapter

Abstract

Currently there is a gap of spatially and temporally explicit information on vegetation cover dynamics and trends in the post-Soviet Central Asia at spatial scales sufficient to support decision-making in the region. Insufficient information also exists concerning vegetation variability across climatic gradients as well as vegetation response across different land uses, from natural rangelands to intensively irrigated croplands. We analyzed vegetation cover changes in five Central Asian countries in this study. This analysis included trends in key vegetation phenological parameters derived from 250 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time-series data for 2000–2011. In order to follow the vegetation changes over time, we calculated trends in phenometrics using a robust trend analysis method. The results showed that inter-annual vegetation dynamics followed precipitation patterns only outside irrigated areas, while clearly differentiated winter and summer seasons were observed throughout the study area. Specifically spatial patterns of long-term vegetation trends allowed defining areas characterized by decrease in overall vegetation greenness and peak greenness as well as revealing the shifts in timing of occurrence of peak greenness over the monitoring period. The information obtained will prove as a useful guide in the selection of field sites for detailed vegetation surveys and land rehabilitation interventions as well as improvement of overall understanding of vegetation dynamics and variability in the remote regions of Central Asia.

Keywords

Vegetation Phenology Remote sensing Land degradation Central Asia 

Notes

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Gohar Ghazaryan for his advice on the preparation of figures and to Francesco Vuolo for the MODIS data processing.

References

  1. Allison PD (2009) Fixed effects regression models. SAGE, London, UKCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Bradley BA, Jacob RW, Hermance JF, Mustard JF (2007) A curve fitting procedure to derive inter-annual phenologies from time series of noisy satellite NDVI data. Remote Sens Environ 106:137–145CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bajocco S, Angelis A, Perini L, Ferrara A, Salvati L (2012) The impact of land use/land cover changes on land degradation dynamics: a Mediterranean case study. Environ Manag 49:980–989CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. de Jong R, de Bruin S, de Wit A, Schaepman ME, Dent DL (2011) Analysis of monotonic greening and browning trends from global NDVI time-series. Remote Sens Environ 115:692–702CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. de Beurs KM, Henebry GM (2004) Land surface phenology, climatic variation, and institutional change: analyzing agricultural land cover change in Kazakhstan. Remote Sens Environ 89:497–509CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. de Beurs KM, Henebry GM, Owsley BC, Sokolik I (2015) Using multiple remote sensing perspectives to identify and attribute land surface dynamics in Central Asia 2001–2013. Remote Sens Environ 170:48–61CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Dietz AJ, Kuenzer C, Conrad C (2013) Snow-cover variability in Central Asia between 2000 and 2011 derived from improved MODIS daily snow-cover products. Int J Remote Sens 34:3879–3902CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Dietz AJ, Kuenzer C, Dech S (2015) Global snowpack: a new set of snow cover parameters for studying status and dynamics of the planetary snow cover extent. Remote Sens Lett 6:844–853CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Dubovyk O (2013) Multi-scale targeting of land degradation in Northern Uzbekistan using satellite remote sensing. Ph.D. thesis, University of Bonn, Bonn, GermanyGoogle Scholar
  10. Dubovyk O, Menz G, Conrad C, Kan E, Machwitz M, Khamzina A (2013) Spatio-temporal analyses of cropland degradation in the irrigated lowlands of Uzbekistan using remote-sensing and logistic regression modeling. Environ Monit Assess 185:4775–4790CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Dubovyk O, Landmann T, Erasmus BFN, Tewes A, Schellberg J (2015) Monitoring vegetation dynamics with medium resolution MODIS-EVI time series at sub-regional scale in Southern Africa. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinf 38:175–183CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Eastman R, Sangermano F, Ghimire B, Zhu H, Chen H, Neeti N, Cai Y, Machado EA, Crema SC (2009) Seasonal trend analysis of image time series. Int J Remote Sens 30:2721–2726CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Freedman D (2006) Statistical models: theory and practice. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UKGoogle Scholar
  14. Fensholt R, Proud SR (2012) Evaluation of earth observation based global long term vegetation trends—comparing GIMMS and MODIS global NDVI time series. Remote Sens Environ 119:131–147CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Ganguly S, Friedl MA, Tan B, Zhang X, Verma M (2010) Land surface phenology from MODIS: Characterization of the Collection 5 global land cover dynamics product. Remote Sen Environ 114:1805–1816CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Gessner U, Naeimi V, Klein I, Kuenzer C, Klein D, Dech S (2013) The relationship between precipitation anomalies and satellite-derived vegetation activity in Central Asia. Glob Planet Change 110:74–87CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Glantz MH (2015) Water, climate, and development issues in the Amu Darya Basin. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 10:23–50CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Lister DH (2013) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations—the CRU TS3.10 dataset. Int J Climatol 34:623–642CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Karthe D, Chalov S, Borchardt D (2014) Water resources and their management in Central Asia in the early twenty first century: status, challenges and future prospects. Environ Earth Sci 73:487–499CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Kerlinger FN (1964) Foundations of behavioral research. Holt, Rinehart & Winston, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  21. Kariyeva J, van Leeuwen WJD, Woodhouse CA (2012) Impacts of climate gradients on the vegetation phenology of major land use types in Central Asia (1981–2008). Front Earth Sci 6:206–225CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Kariyeva J, van Leeuwen WJD (2012) Phenological dynamics of irrigated and natural drylands in Central Asia before and after the USSR collapse. Agric Ecosyst Environ 162:77–89CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Klein I, Gessner U, Künzer C (2014) Generation of up to date land cover maps for Central Asia. In: Mueller L, Saparov A, Lischeid G (eds) Novel measurement and assessment tools for monitoring and management of land and water resources in agricultural landscapes of Central Asia. Springer, Cham, Switzerland, pp 329–346CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Klein I, Gessner U, Kuenzer C (2012) Regional land cover mapping and change detection in Central Asia using MODIS time-series. Appl Geogr 35:219–234CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Lioubimtseva E, Henebry GM (2009) Climate and environmental change in arid Central Asia: impacts, vulnerability, and adaptations. J Arid Environ 73:963–977CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Landmann T, Dubovyk O (2014) Spatial analysis of human-induced vegetation productivity decline over Eastern Africa using a decade (2001–2011) of medium resolution MODIS time-series data. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinf 33:76–82CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Le QB, Tamene L, Vlek PLG (2012) Multi-pronged assessment of land degradation in West Africa to assess the importance of atmospheric fertilization in masking the processes involved. Glob Planet Change 92:71–81CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Löw F, Fliemann E, Abdullaev I, Conrad C, Lamers JPA (2015) Mapping abandoned agricultural land in Kyzylorda, Kazakhstan using satellite remote sensing. Appl Geogr 62:377–390CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Mirzabaev A, Goedecke J, Dubovyk O, Djanibekov U, Le Q, Aw-Hassan A (2016) Economics of land degradation in Central Asia. In: Nkonya E, Mirzabaev A, von Braun J (eds) Economics of land degradation and improvement—a global assessment for sustainable development. Springer, Cham, Switzerland, pp 261–290CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Mueller L, Suleimenov M, Karimov A, Qadir M, Saparov A, Balgabayev N, Helming K, Lischeid G (2014) Land and water resources of Central Asia, their utilisation and ecological status. In: Mueller L, Saparov A, Lischeid G (eds) Novel measurement and assessment tools for monitoring and management of land and water resources in agricultural landscapes of Central Asia. Springer, Cham, Switzerland, pp 3–59CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Neeti N, Rogan J, Christman Z, Eastman JR, Millones M, Schneider L, Nickl E, Schmook B, Turner BL, Ghimire B (2012) Mapping seasonal trends in vegetation using AVHRR-NDVI time series in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico. Remote Sens Lett 3:433–442CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Propastin PA, Kappas M, Muratova NR (2008) Inter-annual changes in vegetation activities and their relationship to temperature and precipitation in Central Asia from 1982 to 2003. J Environ Inf 12:75–87CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Siegfried T, Bernauer T, Guiennet R, Sellars S, Robertson A, Mankin J, Bauer-Gottwein P, Yakovlev A (2012) Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia? Clim Chang 112:881–899CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Shuai Y, Schaaf C, Zhang X, Strahler A, Roy D, Morisette J, Wang Z, Nightingale J, Nickeson J, Richardson A, Xie D, Wang J, Li X, Strabala K, Davies JE (2013) Daily MODIS 500 m reflectance anisotropy direct broadcast (DB) products for monitoring vegetation phenology dynamics. Int J Remote Sens 34:5997–6016CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Tüshaus J, Dubovyk O, Khamzina A, Menz G (2014) Comparison of medium spatial resolution ENVISAT-MERIS and Terra-MODIS time series for vegetation decline analysis: a case study in Central Asia. Remote Sens 6:5238–5256CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Walker JJ, de Beurs KM, Henebry GM (2015) Land surface phenology along urban to rural gradients in the US Great Plains. Remote Sens Environ 165:42–52CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Walker JJ, de Beurs KM, Wynne RH (2014) Dryland vegetation phenology across an elevation gradient in Arizona, USA, investigated with fused MODIS and Landsat data. Remote Sens Environ 144:85–97CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Xu L, Zhou H, Du L, Yao H, Wang H (2015) Precipitation trends and variability from 1950 to 2000 in arid lands of Central Asia. J Arid Land 7:514–526CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Zhou Y, Zhang L, Fensholt R, Wang K, Vitkovskaya I, Tian F (2015) Climate contributions to vegetation variations in Central Asian drylands: pre- and post-USSR collapse. Remote Sens 7:2449–2470CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Center for Remote Sensing of Land Surfaces (ZFL)University of BonnBonnGermany

Personalised recommendations