Advertisement

The Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Tanzania: Comparing an Empirical and a Process-Based Model

  • Pedram Rowhani
  • Navin Ramankutty
  • William J. Martin
  • Ana Iglesias
  • Thomas W. Hertel
  • Syud A. Ahmed
Chapter

Abstract

Global food production will need to increase by 70–100% by the year 2050 to meet the higher demands of a larger population and higher per person consumption (Godfray et al. in Science 327:812–818, 2010; Foley et al. in Nature 478:337–342, 2011). At the same time, growth in agricultural production will face substantial challenges due to a changing climate (Cline in Global warming and agriculture: impact estimates by country. Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington D.C, 2007). The international community is setting up important financial structures (Nakhooda et al. in Mobilising international climate finance: lessons from the fast-start finance period. Overseas Development Institute, London, UK, 2013) and mobilising large sums which need to be wisely used and effectively administered (Donner et al. in Science 334:908–909, 2011). Facing strong budgetary constraints, policy makers are under the additional pressure to select adaptation options that are well-targeted and have the highest impact. A wide variety of potential measures exist to offset the potential climate-related agricultural losses [e.g. improved irrigation infrastructure, better fertilizer management, crop variety changes, development of new heat resistant crops, (Vermeulen et al. in Environ Sci Policy 15:136–144, 2012)]. Yet very little is known about the detailed climatic processes impacting agriculture in the future making it challenging to identify the appropriate adaptation strategy in different regions of the world.

Notes

Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the World Bank’s Trust Fund for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development. Many thanks to David Lobell for his help and suggestions in improving this manuscript.

References

  1. Adam M, Van Bussel LGJ, Leffelaar PA et al (2011) Effects of modelling de-tail on simulated potential crop yields under a wide range of climatic conditions. Ecol Modell 222:131–143CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Ahmed SA, Diffenbaugh NS, Hertel TW et al (2011) Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability in Tanzania. Glob Environ Chang 21:46–55CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC et al (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res 111:D5Google Scholar
  4. Andresen JA, Alagarswamy G, Rotz CA et al (2001) Weather impacts on Maize, Soybean, and Alfalfa production in the Great Lakes Region, 1895–1996. Agron J 93:1059–1070CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Asseng S, Ewert F, Rosenzweig C et al (2013) Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nat Clim Chang 3:827–832CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Bert FE, Laciana CE, Podestá GP et al (2007) Sensitivity of CERES-Maize simulated yields to uncertainty in soil properties and daily solar radiation. Agric Syst 94:141–150CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Bisanda S, Mwangi W, Verkuijl H, et al (1998) Adoption of Maize Production Technologies in the Southern Highlands of Tanzania. CIMMYT, Mexico D.FGoogle Scholar
  8. Bondeau A, Smith PC, Zaehle S et al (2007) Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance. Glob Chang Biol 13:679–706CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Challinor AJ, Wheeler TR (2008) Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: processes and uncertainties. Agric For Meteorol 148:343–356CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Challinor AJ, Wheeler TR, Craufurd PQ, Slingo JM (2005) Simulation of the impact of high temperature stress on annual crop yields. Agric For Meteorol 135:180–189CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Challinor A, Wheeler T, Garforth C et al (2007) Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change. Clim Change 83:381–399CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Cline WR (2007) Global warming and agriculture: impact estimates by country. Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington D.CGoogle Scholar
  13. Deryng D, Sacks WJ, Barford CC, Ramankutty N (2011) Simulating the effects of climate and agricultural management practices on global crop yield. Global Biogeochem Cycles 25:GB2006CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Donner SD, Kandlikar M, Zerriffi H (2011) Preparing to manage climate change financing. Science 334:908–909CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Estes LD, Beukes H, Bradley BA et al (2013) Projected climate impacts to South African maize and wheat production in 2055: a comparison of empirical and mechanistic modeling approaches. Glob Chang Biol 19:3762–3774CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Foley JA, Ramankutty N, Brauman KA et al (2011) Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature 478:337–342CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Gifford R, Angus J, Barrett D et al (1998) Climate change and Australian wheat yield. 391:448–449Google Scholar
  18. Godfray HCJ, Beddington JR, Crute IR et al (2010) Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science 327:812–818CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Hertel TW, Rosch SD (2010) Climate change, agriculture, and poverty. Appl Econ Perspect Policy 32:355–385CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Jones JW, Hoogenboom G, Porter CH et al (2003) The DSSAT cropping system model. Eur J Agron 18:235–265CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Kucharik CJ, Serbin SP (2008) Impacts of recent climate change on Wisconsin corn and soybean yield trends. Environ Res Lett 3:34003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Leakey ADB (2009) Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and the future of C4 crops for food and fuel. Proc Biol Sci 276:2333–2343CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Lobell DB, Burke MB (2008) Why are agricultural impacts of climate change so uncertain? The importance of temperature relative to precipitation. Environ Res Lett 3:34007CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Lobell DB, Burke MB (2010) On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change. Agric For Meteorol 150:1443–1452CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Lobell DB, Field CB (2007) Global scale climate–crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environ Res Lett 2:14002CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Lobell DB, Cassman KG, Field CB (2009) Crop yield gaps: their importance, magnitudes, and causes. Annu Rev Environ Resour 34:179–204CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Lobell DB, Bänziger M, Magorokosho C, Vivek B (2011) Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials. Nat Clim Chang 1:42–45CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Lobell DB, Hammer GL, McLean G et al (2013) The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States. Nat Clim Chang 3:1–5CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Magrin GO, Travasso MI, Rodríguez GR (2005) Changes in climate and crop production during the 20th century in Argentina. Clim Change 72:229–249CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Maltais-Landry G, Lobell DB (2012) Evaluating the contribution of weather to Maize and wheat yield trends in 12 U.S. Counties. Agron J 104:301CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Milewska EJ, Hopkinson RF, Niitsoo A (2005) Evaluation of geo-referenced grids of 1961–1990 Canadian temperature and precipitation normals. Atmos Ocean 43:49–75CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Moriondo M, Giannakopoulos C, Bindi M (2010) Climate change impact assessment: the role of climate extremes in crop yield simulation. Clim Change 104:679–701CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Nakhooda S, Fransen T, Kuramochi T et al (2013) Mobilising international climate finance: lessons from the fast-start finance period. Overseas Development Institute, London, UKGoogle Scholar
  34. Ngo-Duc T, Polcher J, Laval K (2005) A 53-year forcing data set for land surface models. J Geophys Res 110:1–13Google Scholar
  35. Palosuo T, Kersebaum KC, Angulo C et al (2011) Simulation of winter wheat yield and its variability in different climates of Europe: a comparison of eight crop growth models. Eur J Agron 35:103–114CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Parry M, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A et al (2004) Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Chang 14:53–67CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Price DT, Mckenney DW, Nalder IA et al (2000) A comparison of two statistical methods for spatial interpolation of Canadian monthly mean climate data. Agric For Meteorol 101:81–94.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(99)00169-0CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Ray DK, Ramankutty N, Mueller ND et al (2012) Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation. Nat Commun 3:1293.  https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms2296CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  39. Romero CC, Hoogenboom G, Baigorria GA et al (2012) Reanalysis of a global soil database for crop and environmental modeling. Environ Model Softw 35:163–170CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Rosenzweig C, Elliott J, Deryng D, et al (2013) Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 1222463110Google Scholar
  41. Rötter RP, Carter TR, Olesen JE, Porter JR (2011) Crop–climate models need an overhaul. Nat Clim Chang 1:175–177CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Roudier P, Sultan B, Quirion P, Berg A (2011) The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields: what does the recent literature say? Glob Environ Chang 21:1073–1083CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Rowhani P, Lobell DB, Linderman M, Ramankutty N (2011) Climate variability and crop production in Tanzania. Agric For Meteorol 151:449–460CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Schlenker W, Lobell DB (2010) Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture. Environ Res Lett 5:14010CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Soussana J-F, Graux A-I, Tubiello FN (2010) Improving the use of modelling for projections of climate change impacts on crops and pastures. J Exp Bot 61:2217–2228CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Thornton PK, Jones PG, Alagarswamy G, Andresen J (2009) Spatial variation of crop yield response to climate change in East Africa. Glob Environ Chang 19:54–65CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Thurlow J, Wobst P (2003) Poverty-focused social accounting matrices for Tanzania. IFPRI Discussion Paper no. 112, IFPRI, Washington D.CGoogle Scholar
  48. Tubiello FN, Ewert F (2002) Simulating the effects of elevated CO2 on crops: approaches and applications for climate change. Eur J Agron 18:57–74CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Tubiello FN, Soussana J-F, Howden SM (2007) Crop and pasture response to climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104:19686–19690CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Twine TE, Kucharik CJ (2009) Climate impacts on net primary productivity trends in natural and managed ecosystems of the central and eastern United States. Agric For Meteorol 149:2143–2161CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Van Bussel LGJ, Müller C, van Keulen H et al (2011) The effect of temporal aggregation of weather input data on crop growth models’ results. Agric For Meteorol 151:607–619CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Vermeulen SJ, Aggarwal PK, Ainslie A et al (2012) Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change. Environ Sci Policy 15:136–144CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Washington R, Kay G, Harrison M et al (2006) African climate change: taking the Shorter Route. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 87:1355–1366CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. White JW, Hoogenboom G, Kimball BA, Wall GW (2011) Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production. F Crop Res 124:357–368.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2011.07.001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Wood SA, Jina AS, Jain M et al (2014) Smallholder farmer cropping decisions related to climate variability across multiple regions. Glob Environ Chang 25:163–172CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Pedram Rowhani
    • 1
    • 2
  • Navin Ramankutty
    • 2
    • 3
  • William J. Martin
    • 4
  • Ana Iglesias
    • 5
  • Thomas W. Hertel
    • 6
  • Syud A. Ahmed
    • 4
  1. 1.Department of GeographyUniversity of SussexBrightonUK
  2. 2.Department of GeographyMcGill UniversityMontrealCanada
  3. 3.Liu Institute for Global IssuesUniversity of British ColumbiaVancouverCanada
  4. 4.Development Research GroupThe World BankWashington DCUSA
  5. 5.Department of Agricultural Economics and Social SciencesUniversidad Politécnica de MadridMadridSpain
  6. 6.Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue UniversityWest LafayetteUSA

Personalised recommendations