The Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Tanzania: Comparing an Empirical and a Process-Based Model

  • Pedram Rowhani
  • Navin Ramankutty
  • William J. Martin
  • Ana Iglesias
  • Thomas W. Hertel
  • Syud A. Ahmed


Global food production will need to increase by 70–100% by the year 2050 to meet the higher demands of a larger population and higher per person consumption (Godfray et al. in Science 327:812–818, 2010; Foley et al. in Nature 478:337–342, 2011). At the same time, growth in agricultural production will face substantial challenges due to a changing climate (Cline in Global warming and agriculture: impact estimates by country. Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington D.C, 2007). The international community is setting up important financial structures (Nakhooda et al. in Mobilising international climate finance: lessons from the fast-start finance period. Overseas Development Institute, London, UK, 2013) and mobilising large sums which need to be wisely used and effectively administered (Donner et al. in Science 334:908–909, 2011). Facing strong budgetary constraints, policy makers are under the additional pressure to select adaptation options that are well-targeted and have the highest impact. A wide variety of potential measures exist to offset the potential climate-related agricultural losses [e.g. improved irrigation infrastructure, better fertilizer management, crop variety changes, development of new heat resistant crops, (Vermeulen et al. in Environ Sci Policy 15:136–144, 2012)]. Yet very little is known about the detailed climatic processes impacting agriculture in the future making it challenging to identify the appropriate adaptation strategy in different regions of the world.



This research was supported by the World Bank’s Trust Fund for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development. Many thanks to David Lobell for his help and suggestions in improving this manuscript.


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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Pedram Rowhani
    • 1
    • 2
  • Navin Ramankutty
    • 2
    • 3
  • William J. Martin
    • 4
  • Ana Iglesias
    • 5
  • Thomas W. Hertel
    • 6
  • Syud A. Ahmed
    • 4
  1. 1.Department of GeographyUniversity of SussexBrightonUK
  2. 2.Department of GeographyMcGill UniversityMontrealCanada
  3. 3.Liu Institute for Global IssuesUniversity of British ColumbiaVancouverCanada
  4. 4.Development Research GroupThe World BankWashington DCUSA
  5. 5.Department of Agricultural Economics and Social SciencesUniversidad Politécnica de MadridMadridSpain
  6. 6.Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue UniversityWest LafayetteUSA

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