Advertisement

Long Term Analysis of Meteorological-Oceanographic Extreme Events for the Baixada Santista Region

  • Celia Regina de Gouveia Souza
  • Agenor Pereira Souza
  • Joseph Harari
Chapter

Abstract

This chapter presents a database of extreme events, including storm surges (SS) and coastal inundation/flooding (CI/F) that caused injuries and economic/environmental losses in cities from Baixada Santista Metropolitan Region between 1928 and 2016 (hemerographic method). A group of seven indicators describes the boundary conditions of each event: duration/evolution interval, lunar phase, meteorological tide height, precipitation, wind direction and intensity, significant wave height and direction, and ENSO phases. They were listed 115 SS (76.5% only in the current century) and 123 CI/F (47.2%). Around 76.5% of SS occurred between April and September, while 50.4% of CI/F between January and April. Spring tides influenced 52.2% of SS and 65.6% of CI/F. Accumulated rainfall volume during the duration interval was 227.1 mm in SS and 277.8 mm in CI/F. Maximum height of meteorological tides was 0.78 m for both types. Wind intensity reached 20.6 m/s in SS and 17 m/s in CI/F events, both with predominant SW-SSW directions. Significant waves reached 7 and 5.5 m respectively in SS and CI/F, being S-SSE directions predominant. ENSO phenomenon seems to control these extreme events, once 54.8% of SS and 46.3% of CI/F occurred during EN, and 40% of SS and 37.4% of CI/F during LN phases.

Keywords

Storm surge Coastal inundation Flooding Boundary conditions Long-term series 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors thank Oceanographer Eduardo G. Rosa, Environmental Analyst Johann C. Lima and Geographer Graziella S. R. Rodrigues for conducting part of the work of compiling the data and making some graphic treating. We also thank Dr. Mirian R. Gutjahr (Instutute of Geology-SMA/SP) and Professor Dr. Luci H. Nunes (LECLIG-University of Campinas) for making available their disaster registries for São Paulo coastal zone; the BNDO – National Bank of Oceanographic Data (Captain Vladimir C. Maluf in particular), the Centre for Hydrodynamic Research at the University Santa Cecília (Profs. Renan B. Ribeiro MSc. and Dr. Alexandra F. P. Sampaio), as well as the Santos Civil Defence (Eng. Ernesto K. Tabuchi and Geologist Marcos P. Bandini in particular) for kindly making their databases available. Finally, our thanks to the State of São Paulo Docas Company (2010–2011), the IG-SMA/SP, and the São Paulo Research Foundation (Fapesp n° 2012/51876-0 and 2015/08192-1) for the various types of financial support for this research.

References

  1. Bittencourt, A. C. S. P., Medeiros, K. O. P., Dominguez, J. M. L., Guimarães, J. K., & Dutra, F. R. L. S. (2008). Severe coastal erosion hotspots in the city of Salvador, Bahia, Brazil. Shore and Beach, 76, 8–14.Google Scholar
  2. Camargo, R., & Harari, J. (1994). Modelagem numérica de ressacas na plataforma sudeste do Brasil a partir de cartas sinóticas de pressão atmosférica na superfície. Boletim do Instituto Oceanográfico USP, 42(1), 19–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Campos, R. M., Camargo, R., & Harari, J. (2010). Caracterização de eventos extremos do nível do mar em Santos e sua correspondência com as re-análises do modelo do NCEP no Sudoeste do Atlântico Sul. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, 25, 175–184.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. CEPAL-Comisión Económica para America Latina y el Caribe. (2016). Efectos del cambio climático en la costa de América Latina y el Caribe: Dinámicas, tendencias y variabilidad climática. Santiago de Chile: Naciones Unidas. Available https://www.cepal.org/es/publicaciones/3955-efectos-cambio-climatico-la-costa-america-latina-caribe-dinamicas-tendencias. Accessed May 2017.Google Scholar
  5. Gan, M. A., & Rao, B. V. (1991). Surface ciclogenesis over South America. Monthly Weather Review, 119, 293–302.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Gasparro, M. R., Sousa, E. C. P. M., Giordano, F., Argentino-Santos, R. C. (2008). Occupation history of the Santos estuary, perspectives on integrated coastal zone management in South America. In: R. Neves, et al. (Eds.), IST Press. Available https://www.unisanta.br/arquivos/CoastalZoneManagementFinal.pdf. Accessed May 2017.
  7. Gutjahr, M. R. (coord) (2011). Banco de Dados: Estudos históricos relacionados a eventos climáticos na Baixada Santista – SP. Instituto Geológico–SMA/SP. Available http://www.igeologico. sp.gov.br. Accessed May 2010.
  8. IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2012). Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. In C. B. Field et al. (Eds.), Special report of working groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Available https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX_Full_Report.pdf. Accessed May 2017.Google Scholar
  9. IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2014). Summary for policymakers. In C. B. Field et al. (Eds.), Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working group II to the fifth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Available https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdf. Accessed May 2017.Google Scholar
  10. Lins-de-Barros, F. M. (2010). Contribuição metodológica para análise local da vulnerabilidade costeira e riscos associados: Estudo de caso da Região dos Lagos. Tese de Doutorado: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro.Google Scholar
  11. Losada Rodríguez, I. J., Reguero, B. G., Méndez, F. J., Castanedo, S., Abascal, A. J., & Mínguez, R. (2013). Long-term changes in sea-level components in Latin America and the Caribbean. Global and Planetary Change, 104, 34–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Machado, A. A., Calliari, L. J., Melo, E., & Klein, A. H. F. (2010). Historical assessment of extreme coastal sea state conditions in southern Brazil and their relation to erosion episodes. Pan-American Journal of Aquatic Sciences, 5(2), 277–286.Google Scholar
  13. Magrin, G. O., Marengo, J. A., Boulanger, J. P., Buckeridge, M. S., Castellanos, E., Poveda, G., Scarano, F. R., & Vicuña, S. (2014). Central and South America. In V. R. Barros et al. (Eds.), Climate change: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: Regional aspects, Contribution of working group ii to the fifth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 1499–1566). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Available https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap27_FINAL.pdf. Acessed May 2017.Google Scholar
  14. Mangor, K., Drønen, N. K., Kǣrgaard, K. H., & Kristensen, S. E. (2017). Shoreline management guidelines (4ª ed.). Horsholm: DHI Water & Environement. Available https://www.dhigroup.com/upload/campaigns/shoreline/assets/ShorelineManagementGuidelines_Feb2017-TOC.pdf. Accessed May 2017.Google Scholar
  15. Marengo, J. A., Scarano, F. R., Klein, A. F., Souza, C. R. G., & Chou, S. C. (2017a). Impacto, vulnerabilidade e adaptação das cidades costeiras brasileiras às mudanças climáticas. In J. A. Marengo & F. R. Scarano (Eds.), Relatório especial do Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas (PBMC). Rio de Janeiro: COPPE-UFRJ.  https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.36042.16329.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Marengo, J. A., Nunes, L. H., CRG, S., Harari, J., Hozokawa, E. K., & Tabuchi, E. K. (2017b). Vulnerability in Brasilian coastal comunities: An integrated framework to analyse local decision making and adaptation to sea-level rise in Santos, São Paulo – Brazil. In V. Marchezini et al. (Eds.), Redution of vulnerability to disasters: From knowlegde to action (Vol. 1, 1st ed., pp. 397–408). São Carlos: Rima Editora.Google Scholar
  17. Marone, E., & Camargo, R. (1994). Marés meteorológicas no litoral de estado do Paraná: o evento de 18 de agosto de 1993. Revista Nerítica, 8(1–2), 73–85.Google Scholar
  18. Muehe, D. (org) (2006). Erosão e progradação do litoral brasileiro. MMA/PGGM, Brasília, DF, p 476.Google Scholar
  19. Nicholls, R. J. (2006). Storm surges in coastal areas. In M. Arnold et al. (Eds.), Natural disaster hotspots – case studies, Disaster Risk Management Ser n o 6 (pp. 79–108). Washington, DC: The World Bank Hazard Management Unit.Google Scholar
  20. NOAA-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2017). What is storm surge? Available https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/stormsurge-stormtide.html. Accessed May 2017.
  21. Parise, C. K., Calliari, L. J., & Krusche, N. (2009). Extreme storm surges in the south of Brazil: atmospheric conditions and shore erosion. Brazilian Journal of Oceanography, 57(3), 175–188.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Paula, D. P., Morais, J. O., Ferreira, O., & Dias, J. A. (2015). Análise histórica das ressacas do mar em Fortaleza (Ceará, Brasil): origem, características e impactos. In: D. V. Paula, & J. A. Dias (orgs) Ressacas do mar/temporais e gestão costeira, pp 173–201.Google Scholar
  23. PBMC-Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas. (2014). Base científica das mudanças climáticas. In T. Ambrizzi & M. Araújo (Eds.), Contribuição do grupo de trabalho 1 do Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas ao primeiro Relatório da avaliação nacional sobre mudanças climáticas (p. 464). Rio de Janeiro: COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro.Google Scholar
  24. Pontes, N. Z., & Zee, D. M. W. (2010). Mudanças climáticas globais e seus reflexos nas praias oceânicas do município do Rio de Janeiro. In: Expanded Abstracts of the 4° Congresso Brasileiro de Oceanografia, Rio Grande, RS, October 2010.Google Scholar
  25. Pugh, D. T. (1987). Tides, surges and mean sea level. A handbook for engineers and scientists (p. 472). New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
  26. Reboita, M. S., Rocha, R. P., & Ambrizzi, T. (2010). South Atlantic ocean cyclogenesis climatology simulated by regional climate model (RegCM3). Climate Dynamics, 35, 1331–1347.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Reguero, B. G., Méndez, F. J., & Losada, I. J. (2013). Variability of multivariate wave climate in Latin America and the Caribbean. Global and Planetary Change, 100, 70–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Ribeiro, R. B., Leitão, J. M. C. F. L., Leitão, P. M. C. F. L., Puia, H. L., & Sampaio, A. F. P. (2016). Integration of high-resolution metocean forecast and observing systems at Port of Santos. In: Proceedings of the IX PIANC-COPEDEC, Conference on Coastal and Port Engineering in Developing Countries, Rio de Janeiro, October 2016.Google Scholar
  29. Rudorff, F. M., Bonetti Filho, J., Moreno, D. A., Oliveira, C. A. F., & Murara, P. G. (2014). Maré de tempestade. In M. L. P. Herrmann (Ed.), Atlas de Desastres Naturais do Estado de Santa Catarina: Período de 1980 a 2010 (pp. 151–154). Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil: Cadernos Geográficos.Google Scholar
  30. Santana, C. L., Souza, C. R. G., & Harari, J. (2004). Correlação de dados pluviométricos, fluviométricos e maregráficos em eventos de enchentes/inundações no baixo Rio Ribeira de Iguape (SP). In: Proceedings of the I Simpósio Brasileiro de Desastres Naturais – SIBRADEN, Florianópolis, September 2004.Google Scholar
  31. Satyamurti, P., Nobre, C., & Dias, P. L. S. (1998). South America. In D. J. Karoly & D. J. Vincent (Eds.), Meteorology of the Southern Hemisphere (pp. 119–139). Boston: American Meteorological Society.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Sinclair, M. R. (1996). A climatology of anticyclones and blocking for the Southern Hemisphere. Monthly Weather Review, 124, 245–264.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Souza, C. R. G. (2009a). A erosão costeira e os desafios da gestão costeira no Brasil. J Integr Coast Manag, 9, 17–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Souza, C. R. G. (2009b). A erosão nas praias do estado São Paulo: causas, consequências, indicadores de monitoramento e risco. In: Bononi VLR, Santos Júnior NA (org) Memórias do conselho científico da Secretaria do Meio Ambiente: A síntese de um ano de conhecimento acumulado. Instituto de Botânica-SMA/SP, São Paulo, pp 48–69.Google Scholar
  35. Souza, C. R. G. (2009c). Flood risk assessment in coastal drainage basins through a multivariate analysis within a GIS-based model. Journal of Coastal Research, SI, 56(1), 900–904.Google Scholar
  36. Souza, C. R. G. (2010). Impactos das mudanças climáticas no litoral do Estado de São Paulo (Sudeste do Brasil). In: Proceedings of the VI Seminário Latino Americano de Geografia Física e II Seminário Ibero Americano de Geografia Física, Coimbra. Available http://www.uc.pt/fluc/cegot/VISLAGF/actas/tema4/celia_regina. Accessed May 2107.
  37. Souza, C. R. G. (2011). Os ecossistemas costeiros frente às mudanças climáticas no Brasil: efeitos da elevação do nível do mar. In: Expanded abstracts of the XIV Congresso Latino-Americano de Ciências do Mar – COLACMAR, Balneário Camboriú, October–November 2011.Google Scholar
  38. Souza, C. R. G. (2012). Oceanic sandy beaches of São Paulo (Brazil): Synthesis of knowledge on morphodynamics, sedimentology, sediment transport and coastal erosion. J Dep Geogr USP, n. 2012, Spec Vol 30 yers, pp 308–371.  https://doi.org/10.7154/RDG.2012.0112.0015.
  39. Souza, C. R. G. (2017). Balanço sedimentar de longo e curto termos da Praia de Santos e causas da erosão na Ponta da Praia. In: Proceedings of XVI Congresso Associação Brasileira de Estudos do Qaternário (ABEQUA), Bertioga (São Paulo), 21–27/10/2017. http://www.abequa.org.br/trabalhos/254_resumo.PDF. (ISSN: 2318–0986). Accessed May 2017.
  40. Souza, C. R. G., Souza Filho, P. W. M., Esteves, S. L., Vital, H., Dillemburg, S. R., Patchineelam, S. M., & Addad, J. E. (2005). Sandy beaches and coastal erosion. In Souza et al. (Eds.), Quaternário do Brasil (pp. 130–152). Ribeirão Preto: Holos Editora.Google Scholar
  41. Souza, C. R. G., Luna, G. C., & Souza, A. P. (2012). Causas da erosão na Ponta da Praia de Santos (São Paulo, Brasil). In: Abstracts of the II Workshop Antropicosta Iberoamerica, Montevideo, 2012.Google Scholar
  42. Souza, C. R. G., Gouveia, M. L., & Souza, A. P. (2016a). Balanço sedimentar da Praia de Santos antes, durante e após as obras de dragagem de aprofundamento do canal do Porto de Santos (São Paulo, Brasil). In: Abstracts of the VII Congresso Latinoamericano de Sedimentologia and XV Reunión Argentina de Sedimentologia, Santa Rosa, October 2012. Available http://www.isbn.org.ar/cal/laimg/21314/488040.pdf. Accessed May 2017.
  43. Souza, C. R. G., Souza, A. P., & Gouveia, M. L. (2016b). Identificação de processos sedimentares em praias por meio da variabilidade temporal de células de deriva litorânea. In: Abstracts of the VII Congresso Latinoamericano de Sedimentologia and XV Reunión Argentina de Sedimentologia, Santa Rosa, October 2012. http://www.isbn.org.ar/cal/laimg/21314/488040.pdf. Accessed May 2017.

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Celia Regina de Gouveia Souza
    • 1
    • 2
  • Agenor Pereira Souza
    • 3
  • Joseph Harari
    • 4
  1. 1.Institute of Geology – Secretariat for the Environment of the State of São Paulo (IG-SMA/SP)São PauloBrazil
  2. 2.Post-Graduate Programme on Physical Geography – Faculty of Philosophy, Languages and Human SciencesUniversity of São Paulo (FFLCH-USP)São PauloBrazil
  3. 3.Environmental consultantSão PauloBrasil
  4. 4.Institute of Oceanography, University of São PauloSão PauloBrasil

Personalised recommendations