Advertisement

Natural Decrease in Semi-peripheral Nations: County-Level Analyses of Mexico and Turkey

  • Guadalupe Marquez-Velarde
  • Ceylan Engin
  • Dudley L. PostonJr.
Chapter

Abstract

Natural decrease is the demographic phenomenon in which more deaths than births occur in a population in a given period. In many countries, developed and developing, natural increase, i.e., the excess of births over deaths, typically accounts for most of the population increase, and often is large enough to offset population losses due to outmigration. However, if the excess births are replaced by excess deaths, i.e., natural decrease, then it is unlikely there will be any population growth. Demographic research has shown that it is at the subnational (county) level where the excess of deaths over births first begins to appear. In this chapter, we analyse the birth:death ratios of the 2457 municipios (counties) of Mexico in the 2005–2013 period, and the 81 subnational units (counties) of Turkey in the 2007–2014 period. We analyse the two countries as two individual case studies. We do so separately and do not compare the data and empirical patterns of the two countries. In this sense, the country-specific spatial characteristics of one country will not affect the analysis of the other country. This is not a perfect answer to the issue of the differences in the size of their respective subnational units. Nonetheless, it is the best we can do given the strategies the two governments have chosen with respect to the spatial configurations of their respective counties. In our chapter, we show that natural decrease is indeed occurring at the subnational level in Mexico in over 16% of all the counties. In Turkey, we did not find evidence of natural decrease in any of its counties, although some of its counties are moving toward having more deaths than births; in other words, they are “near natural decrease.” We then used two demographic independent variables, one focusing on fertility, the other on the presence of elderly, and modelled the birth:death ratio among the counties in the two countries. We conclude our chapter by drawing out some of the social and economic implications of our findings for the two countries.

Keywords

Mexico Turkey Natural decrease Fertility Elderly 

References

  1. Alba, F., & Potter, J. E. (1986). Población y desarrollo en México: Una síntesis de la experiencia reciente. Estudios demográficos y urbanos, 1(1), 7–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Anselin, L. (2002). Under the hood. Issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models. Agricultural Economics, 27(3), 247–267.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-5150(02)00077-4.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Anselin, L. (2005). Exploring spatial data with GeoDa™: A workbook. Santa Barbara, CA: Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science.Google Scholar
  4. Bakar, C., Oymak, S., & Maral, I. (2017). Turkey’s epidemiological and demographic transitions: 1931–2013. Balkan Medical Journal, 34(4), 323–334.  https://doi.org/10.4274/balkanmedj.2016.0960.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Beale, C. L. (1969). Natural decrease of population: The current and prospective status of an emergent American phenomenon. Demography, 6(2), 91–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Benítez Zenteno, R. (1966). Cambios Demográficos y la Población en México. Revista Mexicana de Sociología, 30, 669–692.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Cabrera, G. (1994). Demographic dynamics and development: The role of population policy in Mexico. Population and Development Review, 20(Supplement), 105–120.  https://doi.org/10.2307/2807942.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Coleman, D., & Rowthorn, R. (2011). Who’s afraid of population decline? A critical examination of its consequences. Population and Development Review, 37(Supplement), 217–248.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00385.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. de Oliveira, O., & García, B. (1990). Trabajo, fecundidad y condición femenina en México. Estudios demográficos y urbanos, 5(3), 693–710.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Dorn, H. F. (1939). The natural decrease of population in certain American communities. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 34(205), 106–109.  https://doi.org/10.2307/2279168.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Doteuchi, A. (2006). Three initiatives to invigorate society in the era of population decrease. Tokyo: NLI Research.Google Scholar
  12. Engin, C. (2015). LGBT in Turkey: Policies and experiences. Social Sciences, 4(3), 838–858.  https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci4030838.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Eurostat. (2011). Regions in the European Union: Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics: NUTS 2010/EU-27. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.Google Scholar
  14. Fuguitt, G. V., Brown, D. L., & Beale, C. L. (1989). Rural and small town America. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
  15. INEGI. (2015). Censos de Población y Vivienda. Aguascalientes: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI).Google Scholar
  16. Johnson, K. M. (1993). When deaths exceed births: Natural decrease in the United States. International Regional Science Review, 15(2), 179–198.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Johnson, K. M. (2011a). Natural decrease in America: More coffins than cradles (Issue Brief No. 30). Durham, NH: Carsey Institute.Google Scholar
  18. Johnson, K. M. (2011b). The continuing incidence of natural decrease in American counties. Rural Sociology, 76(1), 74–100.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1549-0831.2010.00036.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Johnson, K. M., & Beale, C. L. (1992). Natural population decrease in the United States. Rural Development Perspectives, 8(1), 8–15.Google Scholar
  20. Johnson, K. M., Field, L. M., & Poston, D. L. (2015). More deaths than births: Subnational natural decrease in Europe and the United States. Population and Development Review, 41(4), 651–680.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Johnson, K. M., & Lichter, D. T. (2008). Natural increase: A new source of population growth in emerging Hispanic destinations in the United States. Population and Development Review, 34(2), 327–346.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Juárez, F., Quilodrán, J., & Zavala de Cosío, M. E. (1989). De Una Fecundidad Natural a Una Controlada: México 1950-1980. Estudios demográficos y urbanos, 4(1), 5–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Kaya, N. (2015). Discrimination based on color, ethnic origin, language religion and belief in Turkey’s education system. Istanbul: Tarih vakfı.Google Scholar
  24. Korkmaz, Ö. (2013). Urban renewal processes in Turkey: General overview, economic and social analysis. M.Sc. Thesis. Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm.Google Scholar
  25. Lewis-Beck, M. S. (1995). Data analysis: An introduction. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Metz, C. H. (1996). Turkey: A country study. Washington, DC: Federal Research Division, Library of Congress.Google Scholar
  27. Migration Policy Institute. (2014). Tabulations of the survey of migration on the northern border of Mexico. http://www.migrationpolicy.org/programs/migration-data-hub. Accessed July 22, 2018.
  28. Moran, P. A. P. (1950). Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena. Biometrika, 37(1–2), 17–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Ordorica Mellado, M. (1994). Evolución Demográfica y Estudios de Población en México. In F. Alba & G. Cabrera Acevedo (Eds.), La población en el desarrollo contemporáneo de México(pp. 29–52). México, DF: Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Demográficos y de Desarrollo Urbano.Google Scholar
  30. Partida Bush, V. (2005). La transición demográfica y el proceso de envejecimiento en México. Papeles de Población, 11(45), 9–27.Google Scholar
  31. Passel, J. S., Cohn, D.’V., & Gonzalez-Barrera, A. (2012). Net migration from Mexico falls to zero—And perhaps less. Pew Research Center. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/04/23/net-migration-from-mexico-falls-to-zero-and-perhaps-less/. Accessed 4 October 2018.
  32. Population Reference Bureau. (2015). 2015 World population data sheet. Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau.Google Scholar
  33. Poston, D. L., & Bouvier, L. F. (2017). Population and society: An introduction to demography (2nd ed.). Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  34. Poston, D. L., Johnson, K., & Field, L. (2016, February 15). Deaths exceed births in most of Europe, but Not in the U.S., and not in Texas. N-IUSSP, the News Magazine of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population. http://www.niussp.org/article/deaths-exceed-births-europe-not-united-states-not-texasplus-de-deces-que-de-naissances-dans-la-plupart-de-leurope-mais-pas-aux-etats-unis-et-pas-au-texas/. Accessed October 4, 2018.
  35. Quilodran, J. (2008). Los cambios en la familia vistos desde la demografia: Una breve reflexion. Estudios demográficos y urbanos, 23, 7–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Rabell, C. A., Mier, M., & Rocha, T. (1986). El descenso de la mortalidad en México de 1940 a 1980. Estudios demográficos y urbanos, 1(1), 39–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Romo Viramontes, R., & Castillo, M. S. (2009). El Descenso de la Fecundidad en México, 1974–2009: A 35 Años de la Puesta en Marcha de la Nueva Política de Población. In La situación demográfica de México 2009. 35 años de la política de población (pp. 23–28). México, DF: Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO).Google Scholar
  38. Saktanber, A. (2002). Living Islam: Women, religion and the politicization of culture in Turkey. New York: I.B. Tauris.Google Scholar
  39. The Global Economy. (2017a). Turkey: Birth rate. http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/create_charts.php. Accessed July 22, 2018.
  40. The Global Economy. (2017b). Turkey: Death rate. http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/create_charts.php. Accessed July 22, 2018.
  41. The Global Economy. (2017c). Turkey: Fertility rate. http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/create_charts.php. Accessed July 22, 2018.
  42. Tobler, W. R. (1970). A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region. Economic Geography, 46, 234–240.  https://doi.org/10.2307/143141.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Trejo-Nieto, A. (2017). Economic growth and industrialization on the 2030 agenda: Prospects for Mexico. Problemas del Desarrollo: Revista Latinoamericana de Economía, 48(188), 83–111.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rpd.2017.01.005.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. TUIK. (2012). Demographic structure of Turkey and its future, 2010–2050. Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK). http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=13140. Accessed July 23, 2018.
  45. TUIK. (2016). Adrese Dayalı Nüfus Kayıt Sistemi Sonuçları, 2015. Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK). http://www.tuik.gov.tr/HbGetirHTML.do?id=21507. Accessed October 3, 2016.
  46. TUIK. (2017). Adrese Dayalı Nüfus Kayıt Sistemi Sonuçları, 2016. Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK). http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=24638. Accessed July 23, 2018.
  47. Tuirán, R. (2002). Transición demográfica, trayectorias de vida y desigualdad social en México: Lecciones y opciones. Papeles de Población, 8(31), 25–66.Google Scholar
  48. Tuirán, R., Partida, V., Mojarro, O., & Zúñiga, E. (2002). Fertility in Mexico: Trends and forecast. Report of the United Nations Population Division. New York, NY: United Nations.Google Scholar
  49. UN. (2001). Replacement Migration: Is it a solution to declining and ageing populations?. New York, NY: United Nations.Google Scholar
  50. UN. (2015). World population prospects: The 2015 revision. United Nations. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DataQuery/. Accessed September 11, 2018.
  51. van de Kaa, D. J. (1987). Europe’s second demographic transition. Population Bulletin, 42(1), 1–59.Google Scholar
  52. World Bank. (2012). World development report 2012: Gender Equality and development. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4391. Accessed July 22, 2018.
  53. World Bank. (2017). Net enrolment rate, secondary, both sexes (%). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.SEC.NENR?locations=TR. Accessed September 10, 2017.
  54. Yucesahin, M. M. (2009). A geographical approach to Turkey’s demographic transition process. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 7(1), 1–25.Google Scholar
  55. Zavala de Cosio, M. E. (1990). Políticas de Población en México. Revista Mexicana de Sociología, 52, 15–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Guadalupe Marquez-Velarde
    • 1
  • Ceylan Engin
    • 2
  • Dudley L. PostonJr.
    • 3
  1. 1.Utah State UniversityLoganUSA
  2. 2.Universita degli Studi di MilanoMilanItaly
  3. 3.Texas A&M UniversityCollege StationUSA

Personalised recommendations