Unemployment Expectations in an Agent-Based Model with Education

  • Luca GerottoEmail author
  • Paolo Pellizzari
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 10978)


Why are unemployment expectations of the “man in the street” markedly different from professional forecasts? We present an agent-based model to explain this deep disconnection using boundedly rational agents with different levels of education. A good fit of empirical data is obtained under the assumptions that there is staggered update of information, agents update episodically their estimate and there is a fraction of households who always and stubbornly forecast that the unemployment is going to raise. The model also sheds light on the role of education and suggests that more educated agents update their information more often and less obstinately fixate on the worst possible forecast.


Agent-based modeling Bounded rationality Unemployment expectations 


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© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of EconomicsCa’ Foscari UniversityVeniceItaly

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