Advertisement

Introduction

  • Carlos A. Nobre
  • Jose A. Marengo
  • Wagner R. Soares
  • Ana Paula Soares
Chapter

Abstract

The risks of global climate change go from high to very high with an average increase in temperature of 4 °C or more. This includes serious and generalised impacts related to the extinction of endangered species, great risks to global and regional food security, in addition to climate risks associated to alterations in extreme events like heat waves, extreme rainfall and coastal flooding, which are already moderate to high with 1 °C increase in temperature. The consequences of a dangerous climate change due to 4 °C or above warming are suggested to be devastating: the inundation of coastal cities; increasing risks for food production potentially leading to higher malnutrition rates; many dry regions becoming dryer, wet regions, wetter; unprecedented heat waves in many regions, especially in the tropics; substantially exacerbated water scarcity and drought in many regions; increased frequency of high-intensity tropical cyclones; and irreversible loss of biodiversity, including coral reef systems (World Bank, 2012).

References

  1. Alvalá, R. C., Cunha, A. P. M. A., Brito, S. B., Seluchi, M. E., Marengo, J. A., Moraes, O. L. L., et al. (2017). Drought monitoring in the Brazilian semiarid region, In Press, Annais da Academia Brasilieira de Ciencias do Brasil.Google Scholar
  2. Clarke, et al. (2014). In O. Edenhofer et al. (Eds.), Climate change 2014: Mitigation of climate change, Contribution of working group III to the Fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (pp. 413–510). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  3. Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J., Dufresne, J.-L., Fichefet, T., Friedlingstein, P., et al. (2013). Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility. In T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, & P. M. Midgley (Eds.), Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK and New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  4. IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. Geneva: IPCC, p. 151Google Scholar
  5. King, D., Schrag, D., et al. (2015). Climate change: a risk assessment. Report commissioned by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, available online at http://www.csap.cam.ac. uk/media/uploads/files/1/climatechange–a-risk-assessment-v9-spreads.pdfGoogle Scholar
  6. Kreft, S., Eckstein, D., & Melchior, I. (2017). Global Climate Risk Index. Who suffers most from extreme weather events? Weather-related loss events in 2015 and 1996 to 2015.Google Scholar
  7. Marengo, J. A., Alves, L. M., Alvalá, R. C., Cunha, A. P., Brito, S. S., & Moraes, O. L. L. (2017). Climatic characteristics of the 2010–2016 drought in the semiarid Northeast Brazil region, Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (2017) (Annals of the Brazilian Academy of Sciences) Printed version ISSN 0001–3765 / Online version ISSN 1678–2690 http://dx.doi.org/DOI.
  8. Marengo, J. A., Torres, R. R., & Alves, L. M. (2016). Drougth in northeast Brasil – Past, present and future. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 20, 1–12.Google Scholar
  9. Nobre, C. A., Marengo, J. A., Seluchi, M. E., Cuartas, L. A., & Alves, L. M. (2016). Some characteristics and impacts of the drought and water crisis in southeastern Brazil during 2014 and 2015. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 8, 252–262.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. PBMC. (2016). Mudanças Climáticas e Cidades. Relatório Especial do Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas. In S. K. Ribeiro & A. S. Santos (Eds.), PBMC, COPPE – UFRJ (p. 116). Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. isbn:978-85-285-0344-9.Google Scholar
  11. Riahi, K., et al. (2015). Locked into Copenhagen pledges—Implication of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals Technol. Forecast Social Change, 90A, 8–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Rogelj, J., Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R. C., Kriegler, E., Schaeffer, M., Krey, V., & Riahi, K. (2015). Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 [deg] C. Nature Climate Change, 5(6), 519–527.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Strauss, B. H., Kulp, S., & Levermann, A. (2015). Mapping choices: Carbon, climate, and rising seas — Our global legacy. Princeton, NJ: Climate Central.Google Scholar
  14. World Bank. (2012). 4C: Turn down the heat. A report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, November 2012, Washington, DC 20433.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Carlos A. Nobre
    • 1
  • Jose A. Marengo
    • 2
  • Wagner R. Soares
    • 2
  • Ana Paula Soares
    • 3
  1. 1.Institute for Advanced StudiesUniversity of São PauloSão PauloBrazil
  2. 2.National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN)São PauloBrazil
  3. 3.Center for Environmental Studies and Research State University of Campinas (UNICAMP)São PauloBrazil

Personalised recommendations