Influence of External Factors on Inter-City Influenza Spread in Russia: A Modeling Approach
The work is dedicated to the mathematical modeling of inter-city influenza spread in Russian Federation. The authors combine the local SEIR model of the influenza outbreak in an urban environment and the model of inter-city virus spread via migration flows, calibrating the resulting multicomponent model to long-term data on weekly acute respiratory infection incidence in 41 Russian cities. The aims of the research are: (a) to compare the modeling output with the observed picture of the virus spread and to assess its accuracy; (b) to assess the influence of the quality of transport data on the output; (c) to assess the applicability of the model for predicting influenza spread in Russia and to discuss the ways of changing the model to enhance its predictive ability.
The authors thank Vladislav Karbovskii and Vladislav Shmatkov (ITMO University) for providing the transport flow matrices. This research is financially supported by The Russian Science Foundation (Agreement #14-21-00137).
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