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Applying the Disaggregation-Aggregation Paradigm for Crude Oil Pipeline Risk Management

  • Stelios Antoniades
  • Nikolaos Christodoulakis
  • Pavlos DeliasEmail author
  • Nikolaos Matsatsinis
Chapter
Part of the Multiple Criteria Decision Making book series (MCDM)

Abstract

Pipelines is the most efficient (and hence popular) mean to transport crude oil and natural gas. However, there exist several reasons that could trigger a failure of pipelines and the following consequences to people’s properties, human health, and the environment. To this end, pipeline risk management is a primary concern for Oil and Gas companies. Since multiple factors contribute to the risk level of a pipeline, in this work we apply the aggregation-disaggregation paradigm of MCDA to assess the risk of every part of a crude oil pipeline. The presented method considers multiple dimensions (criteria), it is able to deal with the uncertainties in the criteria measurements, and it aggregates the preferences of multiple experts. We focus on a crude oil pipeline owned by the Nigerian Petroleum Development Company, and we used experts’ opinion to get the evaluations of the alternatives on the criteria set. To deal with the inherent uncertainty, we applied stochastic UTA, a method that allows a probabilistic distribution to get used for alternatives evaluations. We were able to estimate the significance weight for every criterion, its marginal utility function, a final ranking of the segments, and valuable insights about how those ranks are achieved. In particular, it became apparent that for the specific location of the pipeline, the external interference criterion has greater importance than in other regions. In fact, it becomes a criterion of primary importance (in tandem with the corrosion criterion).

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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Stelios Antoniades
    • 1
  • Nikolaos Christodoulakis
    • 3
  • Pavlos Delias
    • 2
    Email author
  • Nikolaos Matsatsinis
    • 4
  1. 1.Department of Petroleum & Natural Gas TechnologyEastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of TechnologyKavalaGreece
  2. 2.Department of Accounting and FinanceEastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of TechnologyKavalaGreece
  3. 3.Department of InformaticsUniversity of PiraeusPiraeusGreece
  4. 4.Decision Support Systems LaboratoryTechnical University of CreteChaniaGreece

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