The concluding chapter analyzes the most likely future trajectories of the East European security complex. Four main scenarios are identified; in the most probable one, Eastern Europe becomes the arena of a mainly three-cornered rivalry whose actors are Russia, the Franco-German axis and later Germany, and the USA in alliance with the UK and certain East European states (either within NATO or, more likely, through US-UK-Poland-type trilateral alliances); Russia uses hybrid wars and reignited frozen conflicts to expand its sphere of influence within and even outside the CIS, but the active role of the USA prevents it from turning the region into a Hobbesian arena. Tense episodes alternate with more peaceful ones, allowing for the survival of substantial economic cooperation.
KeywordsEuropean union USA Russia The Franco-German axis Germany UK
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