Advertisement

Introduction

  • Atanu SarkarEmail author
  • Gary W. vanLoon
  • Dave Watson
Chapter

Abstract

More than any other human activity, agriculture is fundamental to the survival and well-being of the human population. In 2016, a total of 2.73 Gt of food grains were produced worldwide. This fundamental food source is alone enough to supply sufficient nutritional kilocalories for the entire global population. And nutrition is supplemented by the many other crops and livestock that are part of the overall food system (FAO 2016). Yet, in the same year, it is estimated that around 815 million people, some 11% of the world’s population were chronically hungry. Moreover, the number was higher (by 38 million) than in the previous year and this rise can largely be attributed to conflict combined with climate effects such as more frequent droughts or floods (FAO 2017). These two issues are also connected. Exacerbated by climate-related shocks, the number of conflicts is on the rise augmenting the challenges of maintaining food security. Indeed, existing household level poverty and, at the macro level, the slowing down of national/regional economies has drained foreign exchange and fiscal revenues, eventually affecting both food availability through reduced import capacity and food access through reduced fiscal space to protect poor households against rising domestic food prices have worsened food security. The global population is expected to increase from 7.6 billion in 2017 to 8.5 billion by 2030, and, perhaps, over 9.5 billion by 2050 (UN). In some regions, such as sub-Saharan Africa, the population is likely to double by 2050 (PRB 2013). Whilst uncontrolled population growth is posing a major challenge to continuing effort in improving global food security; climate change has begun to pose a formidable threat to our surrounding agro-ecosystem. Based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2014 report, the following schematic diagram shows the cascading effects of climate change on food insecurity (IPCC 2014) (see Fig. 1.1, page 17).

References

  1. Adger, W. N., Agrawala, S., Mirza, M. M. Q., Conde, C., O’Brien, K., Pulhin, J., et al. (2007). Assessment of adaptation practices, management options, constraints and capacity. Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter17.pdf.Google Scholar
  2. Asfaw, S., & Lipper, L. (2011). Economics of PGRFA management for adaptation to climate change: A review of selected literature. Commission on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture. Background Study Paper No. 60. Rome: FAO. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from http://www.fao.org/docrep/meeting/023/mb695e.pdf.Google Scholar
  3. Backlund, P., Janetos, A., & Schimel, D. (2008). The effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity in the United States. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture. 362.Google Scholar
  4. Battisti, D. S., & Naylor, R. L. (2009). Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science, 323, 240–244.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Brander, K. M. (2007). Global fish production and climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104(50), 19709–19714.  https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0702059104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Brown, M., & Funk, C. C. (2008). Food security under climate change. Science, 319, 580–581.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Cairns, J. E., Sonder, K., Zaidi, P. H., Verhulst, N., Mahuku, G., Babu, R., et al. (2012). Maize production in a changing climate: Impacts, adaptation, and mitigation strategies. Advances in Agronomy, 114, 1–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Cairns, J. E., Hellin, J., Sonder, K., Araus, J. L., MacRobert, J. F., Thierfelder, C., et al. (2013). Adapting maize production to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Food Security, 5, 345–360.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-013-0256-x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., Sarmiento, J. L., Kearney, K., Watson, R., Zeller, D., et al. (2010). Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change. Global Change Biology, 16, 24–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Ciais, P., Schelhaas, M. J., Zaehle, S., Piao, L., Cescatti, A., Liski, J., et al. (2008). Carbon accumulation in European forests. Nature Geoscience, 1(7), 425–429.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. CNN. (2016). Mercury rising: India records its highest temperature ever. May 23. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/20/asia/india-record-temperature/.
  12. Collier, P., Conway, G., & Venables, T. (2008). Climate change and Africa. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 24, 337–353.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Cooper, P. J. M., Dimes, J., Rao, K. P. C., Shapiro, B., Shiferaw, B., & Twomlow, S. (2008). Coping better with current climatic variability in the rain-fed farming systems of sub-Saharan Africa: An essential first step in adapting to future climate change? Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 126, 24–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Cooper, M., Messina, C. D., Podlich, D., Radu Totir, L., Baumgarten, A., & Hausmann, N. J. (2014). Predicting the future of plant breeding: Complementing empirical evaluation with genetic prediction. Crop & Pasture Science, 65, 311–336.  https://doi.org/10.1071/CP14007.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Crescio, M. I., Forastiere, F., Maurella, C., Ingravalle, F., & Ru, G. (2010). Heat-related mortality in dairy cattle: A case crossover study. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 97(3), 191–197.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Cressman, K. (2013). Climate change and locusts in the WANA Region. In M. V. K. Sivakumar, R. Lal, R. Selvaraju, & I. Hamdan (Eds.), Climate change and food security in West Asia and North Africa (pp. 131–143). Dordrecht: Springer.  https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6751-5_7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Deryng, D., Conway, D., Ramankutty, N., Price, J., & Warren, R. (2014). Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures. Environmental Research Letters, 9, 034011. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034011/pdf.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Ericksen, P., Thornton, P., Notenbaert, A., Cramer, L., Jones, P., & Herrero, M. (2011). Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics. CCAFS Report 5. Copenhagen: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Retrieved December 22, 2017, from www.ccafs.cgiar.org.Google Scholar
  19. FAO. (2008). Climate change and food security: A framework document. Rome: Food Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.Google Scholar
  20. FAO. (2011). The State of food and agriculture 2010–2011. Women in agriculture: Closing the gender gap for development. Rome: Food Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/i2050e/i2050e.pdf.Google Scholar
  21. FAO. (2015). Coping with climate change – The roles of genetic resources for food and agriculture. Rome: Food Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from http://www.fao.org/3/a-i3866e.pdf.Google Scholar
  22. FAO. (2016). The state of food and agriculture: Climate change, agriculture and food security. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/publications/sofa/2016/en/.Google Scholar
  23. FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, WHO. (2017). The State of food security and nutrition in the world 2017. Building resilience for peace and food security. Rome: Food Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/3/a-I7695e.pdf.Google Scholar
  24. Fischer, R. A., Byerlee, D., & Edmeades, G. O. (2014). Crop yields and global food security: Will yield increase continue to feed the world? Canberra, ACT: Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from http://aciar.gov.au/publication/mn158.Google Scholar
  25. Frieler, K., Levermann, A., Elliott, J., Heinke, J., Arneth, A., Bierkens, M. F. P., et al. (2015). A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: Land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties. Earth System Dynamics, 6, 447–460.  https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Gitz, V., & Meybeck, A. (2012). Risks, vulnerabilities and resilience in a context of climate change. In A. Meybeck, J. Lankoski, S. Redfern, N. Azzu, & V. Gitz (Eds.), Building resilience for adaptation to climate change in the agriculture sector, Proceedings of a joint FAO/OECD Workshop (pp. 19–36). Rome: FAO. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from http://www.fao.org/docrep/017/i3084e/i3084e.pdf.Google Scholar
  27. Gong, F. P., Wu, X., Zhang, H., Chen, Y., & Wang, W. (2015). Making better maize plants for sustainable grain production in a changing climate. Frontiers in Plant Science, 6, 835.  https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2015.00835.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. HLPE. (2011). Price volatility and food security. A report by the High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition of the Committee on World Food Security (report 1). Rome. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/hlpe/hlpe_documents/HLPE-price-volatility-and-food-security-report-July-2011.pdf.
  29. HLPE. (2012). Food security and climate change. A report by the High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition of the Committee on World Food Security (report 3). Rome. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/hlpe/hlpe_documents/HLPE_Reports/HLPE-Report-3-Food_security_and_climate_change-June_2012.pdf.
  30. Hoddinot, J. (2006). Shocks and their consequences across and within households in rural Zambia. Journal of Development Studies, 42(2), 301–321.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Horton, D. E., Johnson, N. C., Singh, D., Swain, D. L., Rajaratnam, B., & Diffenbaugh, N. S. (2015). Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends. Nature, 522, 465–469.  https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14550.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Hossain, A., & Teixeira da Silva, J. A. (2013). Wheat production in Bangladesh: Its future in the light of global warming. AoB Plants, 5, pls042.  https://doi.org/10.1093/aobpla/pls042.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. IPCC. (2007). Fourth assessment report: Synthesis. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf.
  34. IPCC. (2012). Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation - Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In C. B. Field, C. Barros, T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, D. J. Dokken, K. L. Ebi, et al. (Eds.). Cambridge; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. 582 pp. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX_Full_Report.pdf.Google Scholar
  35. IPCC. (2013). Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. In T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G. K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, et al. (Eds.), Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for policymakers. Cambridge; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. 1535 p. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WGIAR5_SPM_brochure_en.pdf.Google Scholar
  36. IPCC. (2014). Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. In Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri, & L. A. Meyer (Eds.), Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva: IPCC. 151 pp. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf.Google Scholar
  37. Kumwenda, J. D. T., Waddington, S. R., Snapp, S. S., Jones, R. B., & Blackie, M. J. (1998). Soil fertility management in Southern Africa. In D. Byerlee & C. K. Eicher (Eds.), Africa’s emerging maize revolution (p. 305). Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.Google Scholar
  38. Kurukulasuriya, P., & Rosenthal, S. (2003). Climate change and agriculture: A review of impacts and adaptations, Climate Change Series, Paper 91. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/757601468332407727/pdf/787390WP0Clima0ure0377348B00PUBLIC0.pdf.Google Scholar
  39. Lambrou, Y., & Nelson, S. (2010). Farmers in a changing climate – Does gender matter? Food security in Andhra Pradesh, India. Rome: FAO. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/i1721e/i1721e00.pdf.Google Scholar
  40. Lioubimtseva, L., Dronin, N., & Kirilenko, A. (2015). Grain production trends in the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan in the context of climate change and international trade. In A. Elbehri (Ed.), Climate change and food systems: Global assessments and implications for food security and trade (pp. 211–244). Rome: Food Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).Google Scholar
  41. Lobell, D. B., Hammer, G. L., McLean, G., Messina, C., Roberts, M. J., & Schlenker, W. (2013). The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States. Nature Climate Change, 3, 497–501.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Masih, I., Maskey, S., Mussá, F. E. F., & Trambauer, P. (2014). A review of droughts on the African continent: A geospatial and long-term perspective. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18(9), 3635–3649.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Miles, L., Newton, A. C., DeFries, R. S., Ravilious, C., May, I., Blyth, S., et al. (2006). A global overview of the conservation status of tropical dry forests. Journal of Biogeography, 33(3), 491–505.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Meridian Institute. (2017). Public intellectual property resource for agriculture. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from http://merid.org/Content/Projects/Public_Intellectual_Property_Resource_for_Agriculture.aspx.
  45. Müller, C., & Elliott, J. (2015). The global gridded crop model intercomparison: Approaches, insights and caveats for modelling climate change impacts on agriculture at the global scale. In A. Elbehri (Ed.), Climate change and food systems: Global assessments and implications for food security and trade (pp. 28–59). Rome: Food Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).Google Scholar
  46. Nelson, G. C., Rosegrant, M. W., Palazzo, A., Gray, I., Ingersoll, C., Robertson, R., et al. (2010). Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).Google Scholar
  47. Nelson, G. C., Valin, H., Sands, R. D., Havlik, P., Ahammad, H., Deryng, D., et al. (2014). Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111(9), 3274–3279.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Nkonya, E., Mirzabaev, A., & Von Braun, J. (2015). Economics of land degradation and improvement: A global assessment for sustainable development. New York, NY: Springer.Google Scholar
  49. Nyasimi, M., Amwata, D., Hove, L., Kinyangi, J., & Wamukoya, G. (2014). Evidence of impact: Climate-smart agriculture in Africa. CCAFS Working Paper No. 86. Copenhagen: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from https://ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/research/attachments/climate_smart_farming_successes_Africa.pdf.Google Scholar
  50. OECD. (2013). Policy instruments to support green growth in agriculture. OECD green growth studies. Paris: OECD. Retrieved February 06, 2018, from http://www.oecd.org/environment/policy-instruments-to-support-green-growth-in-agriculture-9789264203525-en.htm.Google Scholar
  51. OECD. (2015). Agriculture and climate change, trade and agriculture directorate. Paris: Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development. September. Retrieved February 06, 2018, from https://www.oecd.org/tad/sustainable-agriculture/agriculture-climate-change-september-2015.pdf.Google Scholar
  52. Pattnaik, I., Lahiri-Dutt, K., Lockie, S., & Pritchard, B. (2018). The feminization of agriculture or the feminization of agrarian distress? Tracking the trajectory of women in agriculture in India. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 23, 138.  https://doi.org/10.1080/13547860.2017.1394569.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Pautasso, M., Döring, T. F., Garbelotto, M., Pellis, L., & Jeger, M. J. (2012). Impacts of climate change on plant diseases – Opinions and trends. European Journal of Plant Pathology, 133(1), 295–313.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Perry, A. L., Low, P. J., Ellis, J. R., & Reynolds, J. D. (2005). Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes. Science, 308(5730), 1912–1915.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. PRB. (2013). World population data sheet 2013. Population reference bureau. . Retrieved December 22, 2017, from www.prb.org/Publications/Datasheets/2013/2013-world-population-data-sheet.aspx.Google Scholar
  56. Porter, J. R., Xie, L., Challinor, A. J., Cochrane, K., Howden, S. M., Iqbal, M. M., et al. (2014). Food security and food production systems. In C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, D. J. Dokken, K. J. Mach, M. D. Mastrandrea, T. E. Bilir, et al. (Eds.), Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 485–533). Cambridge; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap7_FINAL.pdf.Google Scholar
  57. Pörtner, H. O. (2008). Ecosystem effects of ocean acidification in times of ocean warming: A physiologist’s view. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 373, 203–217.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Rosenzweig, C., Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Ruane, A. C., Müller, C., Arneth, A., et al. (2014). Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111(9), 3268–3273.  https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222463110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Rosegrant, M. W., Ewing, M., Yohe, G., Burton, I., Huq, S., & Valmonte-Santos, R. (2008). Climate change and agriculture: Threats and opportunities. Bonn: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH. Climate Protection Programme for Developing Countries.Google Scholar
  60. Recha, C. W., Makokha, G. L., Traore, P. S., Shisanya, C., Lodoun, T., & Sako, A. (2012). Determination of seasonal rainfall variability, onset and cessation in semi-arid Tharaka District, Kenya. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108, 479–494.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Sarkar, A., Patil, S., Hugar, L. B., & van Loon, G. (2011). Sustainability of current agriculture practices, community perception, and implications for ecosystem health: An Indian study. EcoHealth, 8(4), 418–431.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-011-0723-9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Sarkar, A., & vanLoon, G. W. (2015). Modern agriculture and food and nutrition insecurity: Paradox in India. Public Health, 129(9), 1291–1293.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Settele, J., Scholes, R., Betts, R., Bunn, S., Leadley, P., Nepstad, D., et al. (2014). Terrestrial and inland water systems. In C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, D. J. Dokken, K. J. Mach, M. D. Mastrandrea, T. E. Bilir, et al. (Eds.), Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 271–359). Cambridge; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-Chap4_FINAL.pdf.Google Scholar
  64. Smit, B., & Skinner, M. W. (2002). Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: A typology. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 7, 85–114.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Sanchez, P. (2002). Soil fertility and hunger in Africa. Science, 295, 2019–2020.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Shiferaw, B., Tesfaye, K., Kassie, M., Abate, T., Prasanna, B. M., & Menkir, A. (2014). Managing vulnerability to drought and enhancing livelihood resilience in sub-Saharan Africa: Technological, institutional and policy options. Weather and Climate Extremes, 3, 67–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. Thomas, T., & Rosegrant, M. (2015). Climate change impact on key crops in Africa: Using crop models and general equilibrium models to bound the predictions. In A. Elbehri (Ed.), Climate change and food systems: Global assessments and implications for food security and trade. Rome: FAO.Google Scholar
  68. Uleberg, E., Hanssen-Bauer, I., van Oort, B., & Dalmannsdottir, S. (2014). Impact of climate change on agriculture in Northern Norway and potential strategies for adaptation. Climatic Change, 122, 27–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. UN. (2014). Goal 2. Sustainable development knowledge platform. United Nations. December 1. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/?page=view&nr=164&type=230 and https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg13.
  70. van Loon, G. W., Patil, S. G., & Hugar, L. B. (2005). Agricultural sustainability—Strategies for assessment. New Delhi: Sage.Google Scholar
  71. Wassmann, R., Jagadish, S. V. K., Heuer, S., Ismail, A., Redoña, E., Serraj, R., et al. (2009). Climate change affecting rice production: The physiological and agronomic basis for possible adaptation strategies. In L. Sparks Donald (Ed.), Advances in agronomy (Vol. 101, pp. 59–122). Burlington, MA: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  72. World Bank/FAO/WorldFish Center. (2010). The hidden harvests: The global contribution of capture fisheries. Agriculture and Rural Development Department, Sustainable Development Network. June. Washington, DC: World Bank. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTARD/Resources/336681-1224775570533/TheHiddenHarvestsConferenceEdition.pdf.Google Scholar
  73. Wreford, A., Moran, D., & Adger, N. (2010). Climate change and agriculture: Impacts, adaptation and mitigation. Paris: OECD. Retrieved December 22, 2017, from https://www.cabdirect.org/cabdirect/abstract/20103233880.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Division of Community Health and Humanities, Faculty of MedicineMemorial UniversitySt JohnsCanada
  2. 2.Department of ChemistryQueen’s UniversityKingstonCanada
  3. 3.School of Environmental StudiesQueen’s UniversityKingstonCanada
  4. 4.CGIAR Research Program on MaizeInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT)TexcocoMéxico

Personalised recommendations