Modeling the Impact of Cyber Attacks

  • Igor KotenkoEmail author
  • Igor Saenko
  • Oleg Lauta
Part of the Risk, Systems and Decisions book series (RSD)


In this chapter, we continue exploring how resilient is a network to a failure propagating through it; however, now we also include an explicit treatment of specific causes of failure – malicious activities of the cyber attacker. This chapter considers cyber attacks and the ability to counteract their implementation as the key factors determining the resilience of computer networks and systems. Indeed, cyber attacks are the most important among destabilizing forces impacting a network. Moreover, the term cyber resilience can be interpreted as the stability of computer networks or systems operating under impact of cyber attacks. The approach in this chapter involves the construction of analytical models to implement the most well-known types of attacks. The result of the modeling is the distribution function of time and average time of implementation of cyber attacks. These estimates are then used to find the indicators of cyber resilience. To construct analytical models of cyber attacks, this chapter introduces an approach based on the stochastic networks conversion, which works well for modeling multi-stage stochastic processes of different natures.


Cyber security Cyber attacks Attack modeling Cyber resilience Stochastic networks Laplace transform 



This research is being supported by the grants of the Russian Foundation of Basic Research (16-29-09482, 18-07-01369, 18-07-01488), partial support of the budgetary subject АААА-А16-116033110102-5, and by the Government of the Russian Federation, Grant 074-U01.


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© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Laboratory of Computer Security ProblemsSt. Petersburg Institute for Informatics and Automation of Russian Academy of Sciences (SPIIRAS)Saint-PetersburgRussia
  2. 2.Laboratory of Computer Security ProblemsSt. Petersburg National Research University of Information Technologies, Mechanics and Optics (ITMO University)Saint-PetersburgRussia

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