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The DPP Ascendancy and Cross-Strait Relations

  • Yu-Shan Wu
Chapter
Part of the Politics and Development of Contemporary China book series (PDCC)

Abstract

This chapter analyzes the possibility of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) President Tsai Ing-wen taking a galvanizing strategy when the next presidential election nears. It adopts an electoral cycle theory and posits that during the electoral periods, political parties in Taiwan adopt either a median (M) or galvanizing (G) approach on cross-Strait issues. The theory also posits that during the inter-electoral period, the equilibrium for Taiwan is either a semi-partner of the US or a hedger between Washington and Beijing. Both are realistic (R) positions. Chen Shui-bian, a former DPP president, initially took an M approach, then alternated between G and R. Whether Tsai will follow the Chen scenario is determined by the president’s approval rating, timing, and the strength and coherence of her opponents.

Keywords

Tsai Ing-wen Chen Shui-bian Cross-Strait relation Electoral cycle theory Electoral period Inter-electoral period DPP Galvanizing strategy 

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Copyright information

© The Author(s) 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Yu-Shan Wu
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute of Political ScienceAcademia SinicaTaipeiTaiwan

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