Party’s Issue Competence and Electoral Decisions in Taiwan’s 2012 and 2016 Presidential Elections
Employing the theory of issue ownership, this chapter finds that voters’ concerns about Taiwan’s increasing economic dependence on China, together with a series of domestic events, have altered voter’s perceptions of the KMT’s issue competence, particularly in managing cross-Strait relations. This shifting perception of issue competence in part explained the KMT’s electoral misfortune in 2016. However, partisanship and candidate attributes continued to play a major role in the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections. While the role of issue ownership and perceived issue competence cannot be ignored, their effects on Taiwanese citizens’ electoral decisions may vary from election to election.
KeywordsParty’s issue competence Kuomintang (KMT) Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) 2012 presidential election 2016 presidential election Taiwan
- BBC. 2013. Taiwan Protest Over Hung Chung-chiu Death. August 3. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-23561244. Accessed 30 Mar 2017.
- Brown, David G. 2017. Governing Taiwan Is Not Easy: President Tsai Ing-wen’s First Year. May 17. https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/governing-taiwan-is-not-easy-president-tsai-ing-wens-first-year/. Accessed 10 July 2017.
- Budge, Ian, and Dennis Farlie. 1983a. Explaining and Predicting Elections. London: Allen & Unwin.Google Scholar
- ———. 1983b. Party Competition-Selective Emphasis or Direct Confrontation? An Alternative View with Data. In West European Party Systems: Continuity and Change, ed. H. Daalder and Peter Mair, 267–305. London: Sage.Google Scholar
- Carmines, Edward G., and James A. Stimson. 1989. Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
- Chang, Ching-ching. 2009. The Effects of Political Advertising: The Role of Issue Ownership. Chinese Journal of Communication Research 16: 93–129.Google Scholar
- Chu, Yun-han. 2012. Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2009–2012(III): The Survey of the Presidential and Legislative Elections, 2012 (TEDS 2012).Google Scholar
- Executive Yuan. 2009. Employment Promotion Plan of 98–101 [98–101nian chujin jiuye fangan]. The Republic of China. http://www.ey.gov.tw/public/Attachment/93102155871.pdf. Accessed 6 July 2009.
- Garver, John W. 1997. Face Off: China, the United States, and Taiwan’s Democratization. Seattle: University of Washington Press.Google Scholar
- Huang, Chi. 2016. Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2012–2016 (IV): The Survey of the Presidential and Legislative Elections, 2016 (TEDS 2016).Google Scholar
- J. R. 2014. Politics in Taiwan: Sunflower Sutra. Economist, April 8. http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2014/04/politics-taiwan. Accessed 20 Jan 2015.
- Jacoby, William. 2010. The American Voter. In The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior, ed. Jan E. Leighley, 260–277. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
- Lin, Chiung-chu. 2014. Party Competence and Vote Choice in the 2012 Election in Taiwan. International Journal of China Studies 5 (1): 49–70.Google Scholar
- Lockett, Hudson. 2017. China Aircraft Carrier Enters Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone. Financial Times, July 11. https://www.ft.com/content/fad6ea94-09b8-37fa-b427-5519193c535a. Accessed 29 July 2017.
- Ma, Ying-jeou. 2009. New Year’s Day Celebratory Message. Government Information Office, Republic of China, January 1. http://www.gio.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=44972&ctNode=2462. Accessed 6 July 2009.
- Moreno, Elida, and Philip Wen. 2017. Panama Establishes Ties with China, Ditches Taiwan in Win for Beijing. Reuters, June 12. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-panama-china-idUSKBN194054. Accessed 28 July 2017.
- Petrocik, John. 1989. The Theory of Issue Ownership: Issues, Agendas, and Electoral Coalitions in the 1988 Election. Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta.Google Scholar
- ———. 1996. Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study. American Journal of Political Science 43 (3): 864–887.Google Scholar
- Riker, William H. 1996. The Strategy of Rhetoric: Campaigning for the American Constitution. New Haven: Yale University.Google Scholar
- Sheng, Shing-yuan, and Hsiao-chuan Liao. 2017. Issues, Political Cleavages, and Party Competition in Taiwan. In Taiwan Voter, ed. Chris Achen and T.Y. Wang. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, forthcoming.Google Scholar
- Smith, Nicola. 2016. China Is Using Tourism to Hit Taiwan Where It Really Hurts. Times, November 16. http://time.com/4574290/china-taiwan-tourism-tourists/. Accessed 28 July 2017.
- Su Chi, and Cheng An-guo, eds. Yige Zhongguo, gezi biaoshu’ gongshi de shishi [One China, Different Interpretations: An Account of the Consensus]. Taipei: Guojia zhengce yanjiu jijinhui, 2002.Google Scholar
- Taipei Times. 2014. Miaoli Will Not Fight Dapu Ruling, but Refuses Redress. p. 4. February 7, 2014. http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2014/02/07/2003582955. Accessed 30 Mar 2017.
- Tsai, Ing-wen. 2016. Inaugural Ceremony of the 14th-term President and Vice President of the Republic of China (Taiwan). Office of the President, Republic of China (Taiwan). http://english.president.gov.tw/Page/252. Accessed 28 July 2017.
- Wang, T.Y. 2017. Changing Boundaries: The Development of Taiwan Voters’ Identity. In The Taiwan Voter, ed. Christopher Achen and T.Y. Wang. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
- Winglee, Michelle. 2017. On Taiwan, The Honeymoon Is Over. The Diplomat, March 2. http://thediplomat.com/2017/03/on-taiwan-the-honeymoon-is-over/. Accessed 10 July 2017
- Wu, DD. 2017. WHO Déjà Vu: Taiwan Not Invited to World Health Assembly. The Diplomat, May 13. http://thediplomat.com/2017/05/who-deja-vu-taiwan-not-invited-to-world-health-assembly/. Accessed 28 July 2017.