To Reliability of Mortality Shifts in Working Population in Russia

  • Alla Ivanova
  • Tamara Sabgayda
  • Viktoria Semyonova
  • Elena Zemlyanova
Part of the The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis book series (PSDE, volume 46)


The article presents the analysis of death causes structure of working population (15–59 years) in Russia determining its age-specific and gender regularities and defining their influence on death causes structure in working ages. The main results of 50-years of history of Russian mortality are the following:
  • Russia for the third time almost returned to the levels of life expectancy, already met in its history over the past 50 years: in 1987 and in 1965; in 2014, life expectancy level was higher by only 1.3 years than in 1965 and by 0.9 years than in 1987;

  • the main source of both disadvantages and gains is the population of working ages; in males cumulative losses due to population of 15–59 years following the results of 1965–2014 occurred to be 1.2 years of life expectancy, in females – 0.01 years;

  • the resulting losses during working-life period are combined from 2 age groups: 30–44 year-olds and 45–59 year-olds – in males proportion of those 2 groups was 40% and 60%; in females reverse – 60% and 40%. Input of younger age groups both in males and females occurred small (0.17 and 0.15 year);

  • In the ages where resulting mortality during analyzed period didn’t change in general, and in ages where it increased the structure of death causes visibly changed:

  • as to structure of mortality in young ages, input of respiratory and digestive diseases as well as ill-defined conditions plus infections and cardio-vascular diseases in males the resulting mortality remained the same as in 1965 only due to reduction of traumas and poisonings and neoplasms;

  • as to structure of mortality in working ages over 30 years, input of main somatic diseases (except neoplasms) and external causes increased which determined growth of summarized mortality in these ages.


Mortality Input of age groups Input of death causes Working population Hypotheses of changes in mortality Component analysis of mortality change 


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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Alla Ivanova
    • 1
  • Tamara Sabgayda
    • 1
  • Viktoria Semyonova
    • 1
  • Elena Zemlyanova
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Health StatisticsFederal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of Ministry of Health of the Russian FederationMoscowRussia

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