Abstract
The goal of this chapter is to assess “intelligence failures,” as defined by existing literature, in order to determine whether the failures can be attributed (at least in part) to a failure or inadequate use of technical-based or non-technical based intelligence gathering methods. Two case studies are considered in this analysis: the placement of Soviet missiles in Cuba in 1962 and the collapse of the Soviet Union. The results of the analysis conclude that while there are some technology-based intelligence failures evident in each case study, the bulk of the failure can be linked to an oversight or misuse of non-technical intelligence gathering methods. However, most striking is the pre-existing notions within the United States intelligence community that can be linked to how and why the community overlooked critical human, cultural, economic, and ethnic-based intelligence. Therefore, the analysis concludes with the suggestion that the two case studies are considered “intelligence failures” due to the internal failures of the intelligence community. Biases and pressure to deliver conclusions according to the political administration’s preferences continue to impact the analyses coming from the US intelligence community. How the US intelligence community should address this failure remains unclear and requires future research that would be strengthened by the inclusion of additional case studies.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Betts, R. K. (1978). Analysis, war, and decision: Why intelligence failures are inevitable. World Politics, 31(1), 61–89. Web.
Coles, J. (2006). Incorporating cultural intelligence into joint doctrine. Joint Information Operations Center, 1–13. http://www.au.af.mil/info-ops/iosphere/iosphere_spring06_coles.pdf
Collier, D. (2011). Understanding process tracing. Political Science and Politics., 44(4), 823–830.
Collins, R. (1995). Prediction in macrosociology: The case of the soviet collapse. American Journal of Sociology, 100(6), 1552–1593.
Diamond, J. (2008). The CIA and the culture of failure: US intelligence from the end of the cold war to the invasion of Iraq (pp. 19–45). Stanford: Stanford Security Series. Print.
Garicano, L., & R. A. Posner. (2005). Intelligence Failures: An Organizational Economic Perspective. Working paper no. 5186. London: Center for Economic Policy Research. Discussion Paper Series. Industrial Organization and Public Policy, 6. <www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP5186.asp>.
Hopf, T., & Gaddis, J. L. (1993). Getting the end of the cold war wrong. International Security, 18(2), 202–210.
Kennedy, R. (2008). Of knowledge and power: The complexities of National Intelligence. Praeger Security International. 8–9. Print.
Knorr, K. (1964). Failures in National Intelligence Estimates: The case of the Cuban missiles. World Politics, 16(3), 455–467.
Meyer, J. W., & Rowan, B. (1977). Institutionalized organizations: Formal structure as myth and ceremony. Journal of Sociology, 83(2), 340–363.
Renzi, F. (2006). Networks: Terra incognita and the case for ethnographic intelligence. Military Review (September–October) (pp. 16–22).
Simon, H.A. (1997). “The psychology of administrative decisions.” Administrative Behavior. Ch. 5.
The National Security Archive. (2008). “National Security Agency releases history of cold war intelligence activities.” National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 260. http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB260/
Westad, O. A. (2000). The new international history of the cold war: Three (possible) paradigms. Diplomatic History, 24(4), 551–565.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
McGrath, J.K. (2018). Exploring the Contributing Factors Associated with Intelligence Failures During the Cold War. In: Kosal, M. (eds) Technology and the Intelligence Community. Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-75232-7_5
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-75232-7_5
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-75231-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-75232-7
eBook Packages: Political Science and International StudiesPolitical Science and International Studies (R0)