The UK Economy and Brexit
This paper reviews some important literature on the likely implications of Brexit on the UK economy, including that from some of the large forecasting organisations in the UK. Most of these forecasts suggest that the economy will be smaller than it would have been had the UK remained in the EU going forward, though the extent will depend on the trading arrangements which are put in place following Brexit. The paper also reviews research on the implications of Brexit on different household types and areas within the UK. Implications for foreign direct investment (FDI), emerging markets as well as SMEs are discussed, including the potential to damage important supply chains and just-in-time production methods.
KeywordsBrexit Emerging Markets EU Impact UK
The author is grateful to those who took part in the Emerging Markets and Brexit, EMaRC workshop, 3 July 2017, Swansea University for helpful comments. Financial support from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) grant number ESL009099/1 is gratefully acknowledged.
- Armstrong, A., Lisenkova, K., & Lloyd, S. P. (2016). The EU referendum and fiscal impact on low income households. National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 9 June 2016. London, UK.Google Scholar
- Clayton, N., & Overman, H. G. (2017). Brexit, trade and the economic impacts on UK cities, centreforcities, London.Google Scholar
- Dhingra, S., Ottaviano, G., Sampson, T., & Van Reenen, J. (2016). The Impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK. Centre for Economic Performance, Brexit analysis, No. 3, LSE.Google Scholar
- Emmerson, C., Johnson, P., Mitchell, I., & Phillips, D. (2016). Brexit and the UK’s public finances, Institute for Fiscal Studies, Report 116. London.Google Scholar
- Minford, P., Gupta, S., Le, V. P. M., & Mahambare, V. (2016). Should Britain leave the EU? An economic analysis of a troubled relationship (Second ed.), Institute of Economic Affairs, London.Google Scholar
- Sampson, T., Dhingra, S., Ottaviano, G., & Van Reenen, J. (2016). Economists for Brexit: A critique. Centre for Economic Performance, Brexit Analysis, No. 6 LSE.Google Scholar
- Sands, P., Balls, E., Leape, S., & Weinberg, N. (2017). Making Brexit work for British Businesses, Harvard Kennedy School.Google Scholar