Estimating and Forecasting

  • Harold L. Vogel


The basic elements needed for defining and finding bubbles and crashes are now in place and this chapter collates and summarizes the concepts that have earlier been developed. The result is a practical empirical method that enables extreme events to be statistically defined, detected, and tested by applying the elasticity-of-variance approach to real-world data. Given the fractal, scaled nature of financial markets, all bubbles and crashes are comprised of what can be called microbubbles and microcrashes.


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Copyright information

© The Author(s) 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Harold L. Vogel
    • 1
  1. 1.New YorkUSA

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