Advertisement

Introduction

  • Harold L. Vogel
Chapter

Abstract

Circumstantial and anecdotal evidence of speculative bubbles and subsequent crashes can be traced as far back as ancient Rome and Greece and Babylon (Mesopotamia). The presence of mere speculation alone, which was clearly an aspect of trade in the ancient world, is not however sufficient to make an asset price “bubble.” Throughout history, bubbles and crashes have been common and complex events that always involve money, credit, trust, psychology, and emotions. This chapter introduces readers to these elements.

References

  1. Abelson, A. (2005, January 31). Unhappy Ending? Barron’s.Google Scholar
  2. Akerlof, G. A., & Shiller, R. J. (2009). Animal Spirits. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  3. Allen, F., & Gale, D. (2000). Bubbles and Crises. Economic Journal, 110(January).Google Scholar
  4. Allen, F., & Gale, D. (2007). Understanding Financial Crises. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  5. Allen, F., & Gorton, G. (1993). Churning Bubbles. Review of Economic Studies, 60(4), 813–836.Google Scholar
  6. Allen, F., Morris, S., & Postlewaite, A. (1993). Finite Bubbles with Short Sale Constraints and Asymmetric Information. Journal of Economic Theory, 61.Google Scholar
  7. Amihud, Y. (2002). Illiquidity and Stock Returns: Cross-Section and Time-Series Effects. Journal of Financial Markets, 5.Google Scholar
  8. Amihud, Y., Mendelson, H., & Pedersen, L. H. (2005). Liquidity and Asset Prices. Foundations and Trends in Finance, 1(4).Google Scholar
  9. Anand, P. (1993). Foundations of Rational Choice Under Risk. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  10. Angeletos, G.-M., & La’O, J. (2013). Sentiments. Econometrica, 81(2).Google Scholar
  11. Appley, M. H. (Ed.). (1971). Adaptation-Level Theory. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  12. Ariely, D. (2008). Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces that Shape Our Decisions. New York: HarperCollins.Google Scholar
  13. Arnhart, L. (2003). Human Nature is Here to Stay. The New Atlantis, 2(Summer), 65–78.Google Scholar
  14. Bailey, N. T. (1957). The Mathematical Theory of Epidemics. London: C. Griffin.Google Scholar
  15. Balen, M. (2003). The Secret History of the South Sea Bubble: The World’s First Great Financial Scandal. New York: HarperCollins (Fourth Estate). Also under the title, The King, the Crook, & the Gambler.Google Scholar
  16. Barboza, D. (2015a, July 13). China’s Incendiary Market Is Fanned by Borrowers and Manipulation. New York Times.Google Scholar
  17. Barboza, D. (2015b, July 7). Chinese Investors Who Borrowed are Hit Hard by Market Turn. New York Times.Google Scholar
  18. Barlevy, G. (2012). Rethinking Theoretical Models of Bubbles, in Evanoff et al. (2012).Google Scholar
  19. Barlevy, G. (2015). Bubbles and Fools. Economic Perspectives, Q2. Chicago: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.Google Scholar
  20. Baron, J. (1988). Thinking and Deciding. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  21. Baumol, W. J., & Benhabib, J. (1989). Chaos: Significance, Mechanism, and Economic Applications. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(1), 77–105.Google Scholar
  22. Berger, J. (2016). Contagious: Why Things Catch On. New York: Simon & Schuster (Paperback edition).Google Scholar
  23. Bernanke, B. S., & Gertler, M. (1999, 2000). Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, presented at Jackson Hole, Wyoming conference, August. www.kc.frb.org and 2000, NBER Working Paper No. 7559.
  24. Bernholz, P. (2003). Monetary Regimes and Inflation. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.Google Scholar
  25. Bezemer, D. J. (2009). ‘No One Saw This Coming’: Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models. MRA Paper No. 15892. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15892/
  26. Bierman, H., Jr. (1991). The Great Myths of 1929 and the Lessons to be Learned. Westport: Greenwood Press.Google Scholar
  27. Blinder, A. S. (2013). After the Music Stopped: The Financial Crisis, The Response, and the Work Ahead. New York: Penguin Press.Google Scholar
  28. Booth, G. G., & Gurun, U. G. (2004). Financial Archaeology: Capitalism, Financial Markets, and Price Volatility. Working paper. East Lansing: Michigan State University.Google Scholar
  29. Bordo, M. (2003). Stock Market Crashes, Productivity Boom and Bush, and Recessions: Some Historical Evidence (Unpublished). Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, Ch. 2.Google Scholar
  30. Brickman, P., & Campbell, D. T. (1971). Hedonic Relativism and Planning the Good Society. In M. H. Appley (Ed.), Adaptation-Level Theory. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  31. Brown, B. (2008). Bubbles in Credit and Currency: How Hot Markets Cool Down. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
  32. Browning, E. S., & Dugan, I. J. (2002, December 16). Aftermath of a Market Mania. Wall Street Journal.Google Scholar
  33. Brunnermeier, M. K. (2001). Asset Pricing Under Asymmetric Information: Bubbles, Crashes, Technical Analysis, and Herding. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  34. Brunnermeier, M. K. (2008). Bubbles. In S. N. Durlauf & L. E. Bluem (Eds.), New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics (2nd ed.). London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
  35. Burnham, T. C. (2008). Mean Markets and Lizard Brains: How to Profit from the New Science of Irrationality (Revised ed.). Hoboken: Wiley.Google Scholar
  36. Byun, K. J. (2010). The U.S. Housing Bubble and Bust: Impacts on Employment. Monthly Labor Review, 133, 3–17.Google Scholar
  37. Calomiris, C. W., & Meltzer, A. (2016). Rules for the Lender of Last Resort: Introduction. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 28(October), 1–3.Google Scholar
  38. Camerer, C. F. (1989). An Experimental Test of Several Generalized Utility Theories. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 2, 61–104.Google Scholar
  39. Campbell, J. Y., & Shiller, R. J. (1987). Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models. Journal of Political Economy, 95(5), 1062–1088.Google Scholar
  40. Capie, F. H., & Wood, G. E. (2007). The Lender of Last Resort. London/New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
  41. Case, K. E., & Shiller, R. J. (2004, August 24). Mi Casa Es Su Housing Bubble. Wall Street Journal.Google Scholar
  42. Cassidy, J. (2006, September 18). Mind Games: What Neuroeconomics Tells Us about Money and the Brain. The New Yorker.Google Scholar
  43. Cecchetti, S. G. (2008). Asset Bubbles and the Fed. Milken Institute Review, Second Quarter 10(2), 44–53.Google Scholar
  44. Černý, A. (2004). Mathematical Techniques in Finance: Tools for Incomplete Markets. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  45. Chambers, D., & Dimson, E. (Eds.). (2016). Financial Market History: Reflections on the Past for Investors Today. Charlottesville: CFA Institute Research Foundation. http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/pdf/10.2470/rf.v2016.n3.1.Google Scholar
  46. Chamley, C. P. (2004). Rational Herds: Economic Models of Social Learning. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  47. Chancellor, E. (1999). Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation. New York: Farrar, Straus, Giroux.Google Scholar
  48. Chernow, R. (2009, October 23). Everyman’s Financial Meltdown. New York Times.Google Scholar
  49. Cohen, E. E. (1992). Athenian Economy and Society: A Banking Perspective. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  50. Cohen, B. (1997). The Edge of Chaos: Financial Booms, Bubbles, Crashes and Chaos. Chichester: Wiley.Google Scholar
  51. Colander, D. (Ed.). (2006). Post Walrasian Macroeconomics: Beyond the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  52. Corzo, T., Prat, M., & Vaquero, E. (2014). Behavioral Finance In Joseph de la Vega’s Confusion de Confusiones. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 15(4), 341–350.Google Scholar
  53. Craine, R. (1993). Rational Bubbles: A Test. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 17, 829–846.Google Scholar
  54. Cutler, D. M., Poterba, J. M., & Summers, L. H. (1989). What Moves Stock Prices? Journal of Portfolio Management, 15(3), 4–12.Google Scholar
  55. Daley, D. J., & Gani, J. (1999). Epidemic Modelling. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  56. Davidson, J. N. (1999). Courtesans & Fishcakes: The Consuming Passions of Classical Athens. New York: Harper Perennial.Google Scholar
  57. Davies, G. (2002). A History of Money: From Ancient Times to the Present Day (3rd ed.). Cardiff: University of Wales Press.Google Scholar
  58. De Bondt, W. (2003). Bubble Psychology. in Hunter et al. (2003 [2005]).Google Scholar
  59. De Soto, J. H. (2006). Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles (trans: Stroup, M. A.). Auburn: Ludwig von Mises Institute.Google Scholar
  60. Detken, C., & Smets, F. (2004). Asset Price Booms and Monetary Policy. Working Paper Series No. 364 (May). Frankfurt: European Central Bank. www.ecb.int
  61. Dewey, J. (1922). Human Nature and Conduct: An Introduction to Social Psychology. New York: Modern Library.Google Scholar
  62. Dholakia, N., & Turcan, R. V. (2014). Toward a Metatheory of Economic Bubbles: Socio-Political and Cultural Perspectives. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
  63. Diba, B. T., & Grossman, H. I. (1988). The Theory of Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices. Economic Journal, 98(392), 746–754.Google Scholar
  64. Donkin, R. A. (2003). Between East and West: The Moluccas and the Traffic in Spices Up to the Arrival of Europeans. Darby: Diane Publishing Company and American Philosophical Society.Google Scholar
  65. Dunbar, N. (2000). Inventing Money: The Story of Long-Term Capital Management and the Legends Behind It. Chichester: Wiley.Google Scholar
  66. Durant, W. (1944). Caesar and Christ: A History of Roman Civilization and of Christianity from Their Beginnings to A.D. 325. New York: Simon & Schuster.Google Scholar
  67. Evanoff, D. D., Kaufman, G. G., & Malliaris, A. G. (Eds.). (2012). New Perspectives on Asset Price Bubbles: Theory, Evidence, and Policy. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  68. Falconer, K. (2013). Fractals: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  69. Fama, E. F. (1965). The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices. The Journal of Business, 38(1), 34–105.Google Scholar
  70. Ferguson, N. (2009, May 17). Diminished Returns. New York Times.Google Scholar
  71. Ferreira, S., & Karali, B. (2017). Do Earthquakes Shake Stock Markets? PLoS One, 10(7), e0133319.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0133319.Google Scholar
  72. Fleckenstein, W. A., & Sheehan, F. (2008). Greenspan’s Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
  73. Flood, R. P., & Garber, P. M. (Eds.). (1994). Speculative Bubbles, Speculative Attacks and Policy Switching. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
  74. Flood, R. P., & Hodrick, R. J. (1991). Asset Price Volatility, Bubbles, and Process Switching. In Flood, R. P., & Garber, P. M. 1994).Google Scholar
  75. Flood, R., Hodrick, R., & Kaplan, P. (1986). An Evaluation of Recent Evidence on Stock Market Bubbles. NBER Working Paper #1971 in Flood and Garber (1994), Speculative Bubbles, Attacks and Policy Switching. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
  76. French, D. E. (2009). Early speculative Bubbles and Increases in the Supply of Money (2nd ed.). Auburn: Ludwig von Mises Institute.Google Scholar
  77. Furnham, A., & Argyle, M. (1998). The Psychology of Money. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
  78. Gabaix, X. (2009). Power Laws in Economics and Finance. Annual Review of Economics, 1, 255–293.Google Scholar
  79. Galbraith, J. K. (1988). The Great Crash, 1929 (2nd ed.). Boston: Houghton-Mifflin.Google Scholar
  80. Gao, L., & Schmidt, U. (2005). Self is Never Neutral: Why Economic Agents Behave Irrationally. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 6(1), 27–37.Google Scholar
  81. Garber, P. M. (2000). Famous First Bubbles: The Fundamentals of Early Manias. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
  82. Garnsey, P., & Saller, R. (1987). The Roman Empire: Economy, Society and Culture. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
  83. Gascoigne, B. (2003). The Dynasties of China: A History. New York: Carroll and Graf.Google Scholar
  84. George, D. A. R. (2007). Consolations for the Economist: The Future of Economic Orthodoxy. Journal of Economic Surveys, 21(3), 417–425.Google Scholar
  85. Gernet, J. (1982). A History of Chinese Civilization (trans: Foster, J. R.). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  86. Gladwell, M. (2002). The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference. New York: Little Brown.Google Scholar
  87. Goetzmann, W. N. (2016a). Bubble Investing: Learning from History. In D. Chambers, & E. Dimson (Eds.). Financial Market History. Charlottesville, VA: CFA Research Foundation.Google Scholar
  88. Goetzmann, W. N. (2016b). Money Changes Everything: How Finance Made Civilization Possible. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  89. Grant, J. (2008). Mr. Market Miscalculates: The Bubble Years and Beyond. Mount Jackson: Axios Press.Google Scholar
  90. Grantham, J. (2014, May 5). Jeremy Grantham Remains Bullish on Stocks. Barron’s.Google Scholar
  91. Gray, W. R., & Vogel, J. R. (2016). Quantitative Momentum. Hoboken: Wiley.Google Scholar
  92. Greenspan, A. (1999, August 27). New Challenges for Monetary Policy. Presented at the FRB Kansas, Jackson Hole Symposium.Google Scholar
  93. Greenspan, A. (2007). The Age of Turbulance: Adventures in a New World. New York: Penguin.Google Scholar
  94. Greenwald, B. C. N., Kahn, J., Sonkin, P. D., & van Biema, M. (2001). Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond. New York: Wiley (Paperback edition).Google Scholar
  95. Guiso, L., Sapienza, P., & Zingales, L. (2008). Trusting the Stock Market. Journal of Finance, 63(6), 2557–2600.Google Scholar
  96. Haacke, C. (2004). Frenzy: Bubbles, Busts and How to Come Out Ahead. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
  97. Hale, D. (2007, July 31). The Best Economy Ever. Wall Street Journal.Google Scholar
  98. Harman, Y. S. (2000). Bubbles, Fads, and the Psychology of Investors. Unpublished PhD dissertation, Florida State University.Google Scholar
  99. Harrison, P. (1998). Similarities in the Distribution of Stock Market Price Changes Between the Eighteenth and Twentieth Centuries. Journal of Business, 71(1), 55–79.Google Scholar
  100. Harrison, M. J., & Kreps, D. (1978). Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 89, 519–542.Google Scholar
  101. Hartcher, P. (2006). Bubble Man. New York: W. W. Norton.Google Scholar
  102. Hassett, K. A. (2002). Bubbleology: The New Science of Stock Market Winners and Losers. New York: Crown.Google Scholar
  103. Hayford, M. D., & Malliaris, A. G. (2005). Is the Federal Reserve Stock Market Bubble-Neutral? In A. G. Malliaris (Ed.). Economic Uncertainty, Instability and Asset Bubbles: Selected Essays. Hackensack: World Scientific.Google Scholar
  104. Heim, E., & Truger, A. (Eds.). (2007). Money, Distribution and Economic Policy: Alternatives to Orthodox Macroeconomics. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.Google Scholar
  105. Hendricks, V. F. (2015). Bubble Studies: The Brass Tacks. London: Bloomsbury. Leading Frontier Research in the Humanities, (September).Google Scholar
  106. Hendricks, V. F., & Rendsvig, R. K. (2016). The Philosophy of Distributed Information. In L. Floridi (Ed.), The Routledge Handbook of Philosophy of Information. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
  107. Hodrick, L. S., & Moulton, P. C. (2009). Liquidity: Considerations of a Portfolio Manager. Financial Management, 38(1), 59–74.Google Scholar
  108. Hughes, R. (2011). Rome: A Cultural and Personal History. New York: Random House/Vintage.Google Scholar
  109. Hunter, W. C., Kaufman, G. G., & Pomerleano, M., eds. (2003). Asset Price Bubbles: The Implications for Monetary, Regulatory, and International Policies. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press (Paperback, 2005).Google Scholar
  110. International Monetary Fund [IMF]. (2003). When Bubbles Burst. World Economic Report. Washington, DC: IMF.Google Scholar
  111. Ip, G. (2004, November 18). Fed Chief’s Style: Devour the Data, Beware of Dogma. Wall Street Journal.Google Scholar
  112. Isenberg, C. (1992). The Science of Soap Films and Soap Bubbles. New York: Dover.Google Scholar
  113. Janszen, E. (2008, February). The Next Bubble: Priming the Markets for Tomorrow’s Big Crash. Harper’s Magazine.Google Scholar
  114. Jovanovic, F., & Schinckus, C. (2017). Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialog. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  115. Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (2000). Choices, Values and Frames. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  116. Kamarck, A. M. (2001). Economics for the Twenty-First Century. Aldershot: Ashgate.Google Scholar
  117. Kaplan, D. A. (2011, July 25). Don’t Call It The Next Tech Bubble – Yet. Fortune, 164(2), 48–56.Google Scholar
  118. Keay, J. (2006). The Spice Route: A History. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
  119. Kenourgios, D., Samitas, A., & Paltalidis, N. (2011). Financial Crises and Stock Market Contagion in a Multivariate Time-Varying Asymmetric Framework. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 21, 92–106.Google Scholar
  120. Keuzenkamp, H. A. (2000). Probability, Econometrics and Truth: The Methodology of Econometrics. New York/Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  121. Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. London/San Diego: Macmillan/Harcourt Brace (1964 reprint).Google Scholar
  122. Kindleberger, C. (1987). Bubbles. In J. Eatwell, M. Milgate, & P. Newman (Eds.), The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
  123. Kindleberger, C. (1996 [1989]). Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises (3rd ed.). New York: Wiley (2nd ed., 1989).Google Scholar
  124. Kindleberger, C., & Aliber, R. Z. (2011). Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises (6th ed.). Houndmills: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
  125. King, M. (2016). The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking and the Future of the Global Economy. New York: W. W. Norton.Google Scholar
  126. Kirkland, R. (2007, July 12). The Greatest Economic Boom Ever. Fortune.Google Scholar
  127. Kolata, G. (Ed.). (2013). The New York Times Book of Mathematics. New York: Sterling.Google Scholar
  128. Koo, R. C. (2010). Lessons from Japan: Fighting a Balance Sheet Recession. CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly, 27(4), 28–39.Google Scholar
  129. Kroszner, R. S. (2003 [2005]). Asset Price Bubbles, Information, and Public Policy. In Hunter et al. (2003).Google Scholar
  130. Kruger, R. (2003). All Under Heaven: A Complete History of China. Chichester: Wiley.Google Scholar
  131. Laing, J. R. (1991, July 29). Efficient Chaos or, Things They Never Taught in Business School. Barron’s.Google Scholar
  132. Lansing, K. J. (2010). Rational and Near-Rational Bubbles Without Drift. Economic Journal, 120(549), 1149–1174.Google Scholar
  133. Laperriere, A. (2008, April 3). Questions for the Fed. Wall Street Journal.Google Scholar
  134. Lattman, P., Smith, R., & Strasburg, J. (2008, March 14). Carlyle Fund in Free Fall as Its Banks Get Nervous. Wall Street Journal.Google Scholar
  135. Le Bon. (1895). The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind. digireads.com. 2009 ed.
  136. Lee, T. (2004). Why the Markets Went Crazy. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
  137. Lefèvre, E. (1923). Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. New York: George H. Doran. Reprinted 1980 by Fraser Publishing, Burlington VT.Google Scholar
  138. Lei, V., Noussair, C. N., & Plott, C. R. (2001). Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality vs. Actual Irrationality. Econometrica, 69(4).Google Scholar
  139. Lewis, M. (2007, August 26). In Nature’s Casino. New York Times.Google Scholar
  140. Lhabitant, F.-S., & Gregoriou, G. N. (Eds.). (2008). Stock Market Liquidity: Implications for Market Microstructure and Asset Pricing. Hoboken: Wiley.Google Scholar
  141. Lleo, S., & Ziemba, W. T. (2015). Can Warren Buffett Also Predict Equity Market Downturns? https://ssrn.com/abstract=2630068,  https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2630068
  142. Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1999). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  143. Lyons, J., & Hong, S. (2016, November 1). Series of Bubbles Rattles China. Wall Street Journal.Google Scholar
  144. Machina, M. J. (1987). Choice Under Uncertainty. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1, 121–154.Google Scholar
  145. Mackay, C. (1841). Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1995th ed.). New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
  146. Malkiel, B. G. (1999). A Random Walk Down Wall Street, 7th ed., 8th ed. (2003), 9th ed. (2007), 11th ed. (2015). New York: W. W. Norton.Google Scholar
  147. Malkiel, B. G. (2003). The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 59–82.Google Scholar
  148. Mallaby, S. (2016). The Man Who Knew: the Life and Times of Alan Greenspan. New York: Penguin/Random House.Google Scholar
  149. Mandelbrot, B. (1964). The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices. In P. Cootner (Ed.), The Random Character of Stock Prices. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
  150. Mandelbrot, B., & Hudson, R. L. (2004). The (Mis)Behavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin, and Reward. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
  151. Mantegna, R. N., & Stanley, H. E. (2000). An Introduction to Econophysics: Correlations and Complexity in Finance. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  152. Martenson, C. (2011). The Crash Course: The Unsustainable Future of Our Economy, Energy, and Environment. Hoboken: Wiley.Google Scholar
  153. Martin, F. (2015). Money: The Unauthorized Biography – From Coinage to Cryptocurrencies. New York: Random House/Vintage (Paperback edition).Google Scholar
  154. McCauley, J. L. (2004). Dynamics of Markets: Econophysics and Finance. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  155. McFarland, D. (2016). The Biological Bases of Economic Behaviour: A Concise Introduction. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
  156. McGrattan, E. R., & Prescott, E. C. (2000). Is the Stock Market Overvalued? Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 24(4), 20–40.Google Scholar
  157. McGrattan, E. R., & Prescott, E. C. (2003). Testing for Stock Market Overvaluation/Undervaluation. In Hunter et al. (2003 [2005]).Google Scholar
  158. McGregor, J. (1991, December 19). China Cancels Its Red-Hot Stamp Market, But Traders Hope Crackdown Will Pass. Wall Street Journal.Google Scholar
  159. Medio, A. (1992). Chaotic Dynamics: Theory and Applications to Economics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  160. Mehrling, P. (2005). Fischer Black and the Revolutionary Idea of Finance. Hoboken: Wiley.Google Scholar
  161. Merton, R. C. (1992). Continuous-Time Finance (Revised ed.). Oxford, UK: Blackwell.Google Scholar
  162. Mishkin, F. S., & White, E. N. (2003). Stock Market Bubbles: When Does Intervention Work? Milken Institute Review (Second Quarter), 5(2), 44–52.Google Scholar
  163. Mitchell, H., Brown, R. L., & Easton, S. A. (2002). Old Volatility – ARCH effects in 19th Century Consol Data. Applied Financial Economics, 12(4), 301–307.Google Scholar
  164. Nairn, A. (2001). Engines that Move Markets: Technology Investing from Railroads to the Internet and Beyond. Hoboken: Wiley.Google Scholar
  165. Neal, L. D. (2015). A Concise History of International Finance from Babylon to Bernanke. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  166. Nesvetailova, A. (2010). Financial Alchemy in Crisis: The Great Liquidity Illusion. London: Pluto Press.Google Scholar
  167. Nofsinger, J. R. (2005). Social Mood and Financial Economics. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 6(3), 144–160.Google Scholar
  168. Noguchi, Y. (1994). The ‘Bubble’ and Economic Policies in the 1980s. Journal of Japanese Studies, 20(2), 291–329.Google Scholar
  169. Oates, J. (1986). Babylon (rev ed.). New York: Thames and Hudson.Google Scholar
  170. O’Driscoll, G. P., Jr. (2007, August 10). Our Subprime Fed. Wall Street Journal.Google Scholar
  171. Officer, R. R. (1972). The Distribution of Stock Returns. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 67(340), 807–812.Google Scholar
  172. Oliver, M. J. (2007). Financial Crises. In M. J. Oliver & D. H. Aldcroft (Eds.), Economic Disasters of the Twentieth Century. Cheltenham: Elgar.Google Scholar
  173. Oliver, M. J., & Aldcroft, D. H. (Eds.). (2007). Economic Disasters of the Twentieth Century. Cheltenham: Elgar.Google Scholar
  174. Olson, K. R. (2006). A Literature Review of Social Mood. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 7(4).Google Scholar
  175. Parks, T. (2005). Medici Money: Banking, Metaphysics, and Art in Fifteenth Century Florence. New York: W. W. Norton.Google Scholar
  176. Pastor, L., & Veronesi, P. (2008). Technological Revolutions and Stock Prices. NBER Working Paper No. 11876.Google Scholar
  177. Pattillo, C., Poirson, H., & Ricci, L. A. (2011). External Debt and Growth. Review of Economics and Institutions, 2(3), 1–30.Google Scholar
  178. Perkins, A. B., & Perkins, M. C. (1999). The Internet Bubble: Inside the Overvalued World of High-Tech Stocks – And What You Need to Know to Avoid the Coming Shakeout. New York: Harper Business.Google Scholar
  179. Pixley, J. (2012). Emotions in Finance: Booms, Busts and Uncertainty (2nd ed.). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  180. Porras, E. R. (2016). Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets, Vol 1: An Integrative View. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
  181. Posen, A. S. (2003). It Takes More than a Bubble to Be Japan. WP 03-9, Institute for International Economics. http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/wp/03-9.pdf
  182. Poterba, J., & Summers, L. H. (1988). Mean Reversion in Stock Returns: Evidence and Implications. Journal of Financial Economics, 22.Google Scholar
  183. Poundstone, W. (2005). Fortune’s Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street. New York: Hill and Wang/Farrar, Straus and Giroux.Google Scholar
  184. Poundstone, W. (2010). Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value. New York: Hill and Wang (Farrar, Straus and Giroux).Google Scholar
  185. Prechter, R. R., Jr. (2016). The Socionomic Theory of Finance. Gainesville: Socionomics Institute Press.Google Scholar
  186. Rapoport, A., & Wallsten, T. S. (1972). Individual Decision Behaviour. Annual Review of Psychology, 21.Google Scholar
  187. Rebello, J. (2005, March 7). Fed Officials Worried in 1999 About Managing Stock “Bubble’. Wall Street Journal.Google Scholar
  188. Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2009). This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  189. Reinhart, C. M., Reinhart, V. R., & Rogoff, K. S. (2012). Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26(3), 69–86.Google Scholar
  190. Rich, M., & Leonhardt, D. (2005, March 25). Trading Places: Real Estate Instead of Dot-coms. New York Times.Google Scholar
  191. Roehner, B. M. (2002). Patterns of Speculation: A Study in Observational Econophysics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  192. Rostovtzeff, M. (1941). The Social and Economic History of the Roman Empire. Oxford: Clarendon.Google Scholar
  193. Rostovtzeff, M. (1953). The Social and Economic History of the Hellenistic World (Vol. 1). Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  194. Roubini, N., & Mihm, S. (2011). Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance. New York: Penguin.Google Scholar
  195. Russollio, S. (2016, December 6). Greenspan’s New Worrisome Gauge. Wall Street Journal.Google Scholar
  196. Ryan-Collins, J., Greenham, T., Werner, R., & Jackson, A. (2011). Where Does Money Come From?: A Guide to the UK Monetary and Banking System. London: New Economics Foundation.Google Scholar
  197. Rynecki, D. (2000, April 3). Market Madness: What the Hell is Going On? Fortune, 141(7).Google Scholar
  198. Samuels, W. J., Biddle, J. F., & Davis, J. B. (Eds.). (2007). A Companion to the History of Economic Thought. Oxford, UK: Blackwell.Google Scholar
  199. Samuelson, P. A. (1965). Proof that Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly. Industrial Management Review, 6.Google Scholar
  200. Schaede, U. (1989). Forwards and Futures in Tokugawa-period Japan: A New Perspective on the Dojima Rice Market. Journal of Banking and Finance, 13, 487–513.Google Scholar
  201. Scheinkman, J. A., & LeBaron, B. (1989). Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns. Journal of Business, 62, 311–337.Google Scholar
  202. Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1982). The Expected Utility Model. Journal of Economic Literature, 20, 529–563.Google Scholar
  203. Schrage, M. (2003). Daniel Kahneman: The Thought Leader Interview. Business+Strategy. Booz, Allen, & Hamilton and. http://ebusiness.mit.edu/schrage/Articles/DanielKahnemanInterview.pdf
  204. Schumpeter, J. A. (1939). Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical, and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
  205. Schwartz, A. J. (1986). Real and Pseudo-Financial Crises. In F. H. Capie & G. E. Wood (Eds.), The Lender of Last Resort. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
  206. Schwartz, D. G. (2006). Roll the Bones: The History of Gambling. New York: Gotham Books (Penguin Group).Google Scholar
  207. Sharma, R. (2015a, July 7). China’s Stock Plunge Is Scarier Than Greek Debt Crisis. Wall Street Journal.Google Scholar
  208. Shiller, R. J. (2000, 2005, 2015). Irrational Exuberance (3nd ed.). Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  209. Shiller, R. J. (2002, December 17). Safe as Houses? Wall Street Journal.Google Scholar
  210. Shiller, R. J. (2006). Irrational Exuberance Revisited. In R. N. Sullivan & J. J. Diermeier (Eds.), Global Perspectives on Investment Management. Charlottesville: CFA Institute.Google Scholar
  211. Smick, D. M. (2008). The World Is Curved: Hidden Dangers to the Global Economy. New York: Penguin Portfolio.Google Scholar
  212. Smithers, A., & Wright, S. (2000). Valuing Wall Street: Protecting Wealth in Turbulent Markets. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
  213. Sorkin, A. R. (2009). Too Big To Fail: The Inside Story of How Wall Street and Washington Fought to Save the Financial System – and Themselves. New York: Viking.Google Scholar
  214. Sornette, D. (2003). Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  215. Stiglitz, J. E. (1990). Symposium on Bubbles. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4(2), 13–18.Google Scholar
  216. Stiglitz, J. E., & Greenwald, B. (2003). Towards a New Paradigm in Monetary Economics. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  217. Stout, D. (2002, August 30). Greenspan Says Fed Could Not Prevent Market Bubble. New York Times.Google Scholar
  218. Sullivan, R. N., & Diermeier, J. J. (Eds.). (2006). Global Perspectives on Investment Management. Charlottesville: CFA Institute.Google Scholar
  219. Surowiecki, J. (2004). The Wisdom of Crowds. New York: Doubleday.Google Scholar
  220. Swarup, B. (2014). Money Mania: Booms, Panics and Busts from Ancient Rome to the Great Meltdown. New York: Bloomsbury Press.Google Scholar
  221. Sylla, R. (2001). The New Media Boom in Historical Perspective. Prometheus, 19(1), 17–26.Google Scholar
  222. Taleb, N. N. (2004). Bleed or Blowup? Why Do We Prefer Asymmetric Payoffs? Journal of Behavioral Finance, 5(1).Google Scholar
  223. Taleb, N. N. (2005). Fooled by Randomness. New York: Random House (2nd paperback edition).Google Scholar
  224. Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
  225. Taylor, S. (2005). Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  226. Thaler, R. H. (Ed.). (1992). The Winner’s Curse: Paradoxes and Anomalies of Economic Life. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  227. Thaler, R. H. (Ed.). (2005). Advances in Behavioral Finance (Vol. II). Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  228. Thomas, L., Jr. (2012, June 27). Spain Officials Hailed Banks as Crisis Built. New York Times.Google Scholar
  229. Treynor, J. L. (1998). Bulls, Bears, and Market Bubbles. Financial Analysts Journal, 54(2), 69–74.Google Scholar
  230. Triana, P. (2009). Lecturing Birds on Flying: Can Mathematical Theories Destroy the Financial Markets? Hoboken: Wiley.Google Scholar
  231. Tuckett, D. (2011). Minding the Markets: An Emotional Finance View of Financial Instability. London: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
  232. Vaga, T. (1994). Profiting From Chaos: Using Chaos Theory for Market Timing, Stock Selection, and Option Valuation. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
  233. Varchaver, N. (2008, April 28). What Warren Thinks… Fortune, 157(8).Google Scholar
  234. Vogel, H. L. (2017). Are There Any Laws and Constants in Economics? A Brief Comparison to the Sciences. Journal of Contemporary Management, 6(1), 73–88.Google Scholar
  235. Voth, H.-J. (2000). A Tale of Five Bubbles – Asset Price Inflation and Central Bank Policy in Historical Perspective. Discussion Paper 416. Canberra: Australian National University. http://econrsss.anu.edu.au
  236. Voth, H.-J. (2003). With a Bang, Not a Whimper: Pricking Germany’s ‘Stock Market Bubble’ in 1927 and the Slide into Depression. Journal of Economic History, 63(1), 65–99.Google Scholar
  237. Warburton, P. (2000). Debt and Delusion: Central Bank Follies That Threaten Economic Disaster. London: Penguin.Google Scholar
  238. Weatherall, J. O. (2013). The Physics of Wall Street: A Brief History of Predicting the Unpredictable. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.Google Scholar
  239. Werner, R. A. (2005). New Paradigm in Macroeconomics: Solving the Riddle of Japanese Macroeconomic Performance. Houndmills: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
  240. West, M. D. (2000). Private Ordering at the World’s First Futures Exchange. Michigan Law Review, 98(8), 2574–2615.Google Scholar
  241. Witter, L. (2006, August 21). The No-Money-Down Disaster. Barron’s.Google Scholar
  242. Wood, C. (2005). The Bubble Economy: Japan’s Extraordinary Speculative Boom of the ‘80s and the Dramatic Bust of the ‘90s. San Luis Obispo: Solstice/London: Sidgwick & Jackson, 1992, and New York: Atlantic Monthly Press.Google Scholar
  243. Zweig, J. (2008, August 30). With Buybacks, Look Before You Leap. Barron’s.Google Scholar
  244. Zweig, J. (2015, November 14). Deciphering the Dialect: A Wall Street Glossary. Wall Street Journal.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© The Author(s) 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Harold L. Vogel
    • 1
  1. 1.New YorkUSA

Personalised recommendations