Advertisement

Leveraging Coupled Agent-Based Models to Explore the Resilience of Tightly-Coupled Land Use Systems

  • Patrick BittermanEmail author
  • David A. Bennett
Conference paper
Part of the Advances in Geographic Information Science book series (AGIS)

Abstract

This chapter argues that agent-based models (ABMs) possess an inherent advantage for modeling and exploring the general and specified resilience of social-ecological systems. Coupled systems are often complex adaptive systems, and the ability of ABMs to integrate heterogeneous actors, dynamic couplings, and processes across spatiotemporal scales is vital to understanding resilience in the context of complexity theory. To that end, we present the results of a preliminary stylized model designed to explore resilience concepts in an agricultural land use system. We then identify strengths and opportunities for further ABM development, and outline future work to integrate empirically-parameterized agent behavioral rules with robust biophysical models to explore resilience and complexity.

Keywords

Resilience Agent-based modeling Complexity Adaptive capacity 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This work is funded in part by NSF Coupled Natural Human Systems Award #1114978, People, Water, and Climate: Adaptation and Resilience in Agricultural Watersheds.

References

  1. 1.
    An L, Zvoleff A, Liu J, Axinn W (2014) Agent-based modeling in coupled human and natural systems (CHANS): lessons from a comparative analysis. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 104:723–745CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. 2.
    Ostrom E (2009) A general framework for analyzing sustainability of social-ecological systems. Science 325:419–422CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. 3.
    Liu J, Dietz T, Carpenter SR, Folke C, Alberti M, Redman CL, Schneider SH, Ostrom E, Pell AN, Lubchenco J, Taylor WW, Ouyang Z, Deadman P, Kratz T, Folke C, Provencher W (2007) Coupled human and natural systems. Ambio 36:639–649CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    Binder CR, Hinkel J, Bots PWG, Pahl-Wostl C (2013) Comparison of frameworks for analyzing social-ecological systems. Ecol Soc 18:26CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Grimm V, Schmidt E, Wissel C (1992) On the application of stability concepts in ecology. Ecol Model 63:143–161CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. 6.
    Scheffer M, Carpenter S, Foley JA, Folke C, Walker B (2001) Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413:591–596CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. 7.
    Cutter SL, Finch C (2008) Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards. Proc National Acad Sci USA 105:2301–2306CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. 8.
    Cutter SL, Burton CG, Emrich CT (2010) Disaster resilience indicators for benchmarking baseline conditions. J Homeland Secur Emerg Manag 7:1–24Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Lam NS-N, Qiang Y, Arenas H, Brito P, Liu K-B (2015) Mapping and assessing coastal resilience in the Caribbean region. Cartogr Geogr Inf Sci 42:315–322CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. 10.
    Adger WN, Vincent K (2005) Uncertainty in adaptive capacity. Compt Rendus Geosci 337:399–410CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. 11.
    Anderies JM, Folke C, Walker B, Ostrom E (2013) Aligning key concepts for global change policy: robustness, resilience, and sustainability. Ecol Soc 18:8CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. 12.
    Zhou H, Wang J, Wan J, Jia H (2010) Resilience to natural hazards: a geographic perspective. Nat Hazards 53:21–41CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. 13.
    Morecroft MD, Crick HQP, Duffield SJ, Macgregor NA (2012) Resilience to climate change: translating principles into practice. J Appl Ecol 49:547–551CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. 14.
    Baggio JA, Baggio JA, Brown K, Brown K, Hellebrandt D, Hellebrandt D (2015) Boundary object or bridging concept? A citation network analysis of resilience. Ecol Soc 20:2CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. 15.
    Davidson JL, Jacobson C, Lyth A, Dedekorkut-Howes A, Baldwin CL, Ellison JC, Holbrook NJ, Howes MJ, Serrao-Neumann S, Singh-Peterson L, Smith TF (2016) Interrogating resilience: toward a typology to improve its operationalization. Ecol Soc 21:27CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. 16.
    Quinlan AE, Berbés-Blázquez M, Haider LJ, Peterson GD (2015) Measuring and assessing resilience: broadening understanding through multiple disciplinary perspectives. J Appl Ecol 53:677–687CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. 17.
    Schouten MAH, van der Heide CM, Heijman WJM, Opdam PFM (2012) A resilience-based policy evaluation framework: application to European rural development policies. Ecol Econ 81:165–175CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. 18.
    Walker B, Carpenter S, Holling CS, Kinzig A (2004) Resilience, adaptability and transformability in social–ecological systems. Ecol Soc 9:5CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. 19.
    Holling CS (2001) Understanding the complexity of economic, ecological, and social systems. Ecosystems 4:390–405CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. 20.
    Carpenter S, Walker B, Anderies JM, Abel N (2001) From metaphor to measurement: resilience of what to what? Ecosystems 4:765–781CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. 21.
    Folke C (2016) Resilience (republished). Ecol Soc 21:44CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. 22.
    Engle NL (2011) Adaptive capacity and its assessment. Glob Environ Chang 21:647–656CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. 23.
    Walker B, Salt D (2006) Resilience thinking: sustaining ecosystems and people in a changing world. Island Press, Washington, D.CGoogle Scholar
  24. 24.
    Allison HE, Hobbs RJ (2004) Resilience, adaptive capacity, and the lock-in trap of the western Australian agricultural region. Ecol Soc 9:3CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. 25.
    Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2008) Adaptive capacity and traps. Ecol Soc 13:40CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. 26.
    Gunderson LH, Carpenter S, Folke C, Olsson P, Peterson G (2006) Water RATs (resilience, adaptability, and transformability) in lake and wetland social-ecological systems. Ecol Soc 11:16CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. 27.
    Folke C (2006) Resilience: the emergence of a perspective for social–ecological systems analyses. Glob Environ Chang 16:253–267CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. 28.
    Holland JH (1992) Complex adaptive systems. Daedalus 121:17–30Google Scholar
  29. 29.
    Cumming GS (2011) Spatial resilience in social-ecological systems. Springer, LondonCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. 30.
    Janssen MA, Bodin Ö, Anderies JM, Elmqvist T, Ernstson H, Mcallister RRJ, Olsson P, Ryan P (2006) Toward a network perspective of the study of resilience in social-ecological systems. Ecol Soc 11:15CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. 31.
    Mitchell M (2009) Complexity a guided tour. Oxford University Press, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  32. 32.
    Malanson GP (1999) Considering complexity. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 89:746–753CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. 33.
    Liu J, Dietz T, Carpenter SR, Alberti M, Folke C, Moran E, Pell AN, Deadman P, Kratz T, Lubchenco J, Ostrom E, Ouyang Z, Provencher W, Redman CL, Schneider SH, Taylor WW (2007) Complexity of coupled human and natural systems. Science 317:1513–1516CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. 34.
    Bennett D, McGinnis D (2008) Coupled and complex: human–environment interaction in the greater yellowstone ecosystem, USA. Geoforum 39:833–845CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. 35.
    Parker DC, Manson SM, Janssen MA, Deadman P, Hoffmann MJ (2003) Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-cover change: a review. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 93:314–337CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. 36.
    Tang W, Bennett DA (2010) The explicit representation of context in agent-based models of complex adaptive spatial systems. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 100:1128–1155CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. 37.
    Brown DG, Page S, Riolo R, Zellner M, Rand W (2005) Path dependence and the validation of agent-based spatial models of land use. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 19:37–41CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. 38.
    Parker DC, Hessl A, Davis SC (2008) Complexity, land-use modeling, and the human dimension: fundamental challenges for mapping unknown outcome spaces. Geoforum 39:789–804CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. 39.
    Guzy MR, Smith CL, Bolte JP, Hulse DW, Gregory SV (2008) Policy research using agent-based modeling to assess future impacts of urban expansion into farmlands and forests. Ecol Soc 13:37CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. 40.
    Schouten M, Opdam P, Polman N, Westerhof E (2013) Resilience-based governance in rural landscapes: experiments with agri-environment schemes using a spatially explicit agent-based model. Land Use Policy 30:934–943CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. 41.
    Mallya G, Zhao L, Song XC, Niyogi D, Govindaraju RS (2013) 2012 midwest drought in the United States. J Hydrol Eng 18:737–745CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. 42.
    Schilling K, Streeter M, Hutchinson K, Wilson C, Abban B, Wacha K, Papanicolaou A (2015) Effects of land cover on streamflow variability in a small iowa watershed: assessing future vulnerabilities. Am J Environ Sci 11:186–198CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. 43.
    Papanicolaou AN, Wacha KM, Abban BK, Wilson CG, Hatfield JL, Stanier CO, Filley TR (2015) From soilscapes to landscapes: a landscape-oriented approach to simulate soil organic carbon dynamics in intensively managed landscapes. J Geophys Res Biogeosci 120(11):2375–2401CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. 44.
    Ding D, Bennett D, Secchi S (2015) Investigating impacts of alternative crop market scenarios on land use change with an agent-based model. Landscape 4:1110–1137Google Scholar
  45. 45.
    Budyko MI (1958) The heat balance of the Earth’s surface. Office of Technical Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington D. CGoogle Scholar
  46. 46.
    Renard KG, Foster GR, Weesies GA, Porter JP (1991) RUSLE: revised universal soil loss equation. J Soil Water Conserv 46(1):30–33Google Scholar
  47. 47.
    R Core Team: R, https://R-project.org
  48. 48.
    Bitterman P, Bennett DA (2016) Constructing stability landscapes to identify alternative states in coupled social-ecological agent-based models. Ecol Soc 21:21CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. 49.
  50. 50.
    Iowa State University (2016) Extension and outreach: estimated costs of crop production in Iowa–2016Google Scholar
  51. 51.
    Bakhsh A, Jaynes DB, Colvin TS, Kanwar RS (2000) Spatio-temporal analysis of yield variability for a corn-soybean field in Iowa. Trans ASAE 43:31–38CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. 52.
    Pielou EC (1975) Ecological diversity. Wiley-Interscience, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  53. 53.
    Shannon CE, Weaver W (1949) The mathematical theory of communication. University of Illinois Press, UrbanaGoogle Scholar
  54. 54.
    Elmqvist T, Folke C, Nystrom M, Peterson G, Bengtsson J, Walker B, Norberg J (2003) Response diversity, ecosystem change, and resilience. Front Ecol Environ 1:488–494CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. 55.
    Allen CR, Angeler DG, Cumming GS, Folke C, Twidwell D, Uden DR (2016) Quantifying spatial resilience. J Appl Ecol 53:625–635CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. 56.
    Brooks N, Neil Adger W, Mick Kelly P, Kelly PM (2005) The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation. Glob Environ Chang 15:151–163CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. 57.
    Nelson DR, Adger WN, Brown K (2007) Adaptation to environmental change: contributions of a resilience framework. Annu Rev. Environ Resour 32:395–419CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. 58.
    Bennett DA, Tang W, Wang S (2011) Toward an understanding of provenance in complex land use dynamics. J Land Use Sci 6:211–230CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. 59.
    Moser SC, Ekstrom JA (2010) A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation. PNAS 107:22026–22031CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. 60.
    Grothmann T, Patt A (2005) Adaptive capacity and human cognition: the process of individual adaptation to climate change. Glob Environ Chang 15:199–213CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. 61.
    Bousquet F, Le Page C (2004) Multi-agent simulations and ecosystem management: a review. Ecol Model 176:313–332CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. 62.
    Magliocca NR, Brown DG, Ellis EC (2013) Exploring agricultural livelihood transitions with an agent-based virtual laboratory: global forces to local decision-making. PLoS One 8:e73241CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. 63.
    Magliocca NR, Brown DG, Ellis EC (2014) Cross-site comparison of land-use decision-making and its consequences across land systems with a generalized agent-based model. PLoS One 9:e86179CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. 64.
    Bone C, Dragićević S (2010) Simulation and validation of a reinforcement learning agent-based model for multi-stakeholder forest management. Comput Environ Urban Syst 34:162–174CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. 65.
    Scheffer M, Bascompte J, Brock WA, Brovkin V, Carpenter SR, Dakos V, Held H, van Nes EH, Rietkerk M, Sugihara G (2009) Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461:53–59CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. 66.
    Andersen T, Carstensen J, Hernández-García E, Duarte CM (2009) Ecological thresholds and regime shifts: approaches to identification. Trends Ecol Evol 24:49–57CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. 67.
    Van Meter KJ, Basu NB (2015) Catchment legacies and time lags: a parsimonious watershed model to predict the effects of legacy storage on nitrogen export. PLoS One 10:e0125971–e0125922CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. 68.
    Gray SA, Gray S, De Kok JL, Helfgott AER, O'Dwyer B, Jordan R, Nyaki A (2015) Using fuzzy cognitive mapping as a participatory approach to analyze change, preferred states, and perceived resilience of social-ecological systems. Ecol Soc 20:11CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. 69.
    Davoudi S, Shaw K, Haider LJ, Quinlan AE, Peterson GD, Wilkinson C, Fünfgeld H, McEvoy D, Porter L (2012) Resilience: a bridging concept or a dead end? “reframing” resilience: challenges for planning theory and practice interacting traps: resilience assessment of a pasture management system in northern afghanistan urban resilience: what does it mean in planning practice? Resilience as a useful concept for climate change adaptation? The politics of resilience for planning: a cautionary note. Plan Theory Pract 13:299–333CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.University of VermontBurlingtonUSA
  2. 2.University of IowaIowa CityUSA

Personalised recommendations