Decarbonising the Finnish Transport Sector by 2050—Electricity or Biofuels?
Finland has set ambitious long-term targets, which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector and the whole energy system by 2050. By utilising the energy system model STREAM, which includes the power, heat and transport sectors, this paper develops two alternative scenarios for the transport sector by 2050—one with a high percentage of electric vehicles (EV) and another with a high percentage of biofuels (BIO), and compares the scenario results with a known Carbon-Neutral Scenario (CNS) which is adopted from the Nordic Energy Technology Perspective (IEA in Nordic energy technology perspective—pathways to a carbon-neutral energy future, 2013a). The socio-economic value of the total system cost is computed and the system integration of the transport sector with the electricity and heating sectors is simulated with an hourly time resolution. This study finds that a Finnish transport sector with a high share of EV by 2050 leads to the lowest total annual system cost of the scenarios and yields a reduction by 2.3% compared to CNS. While the transport configuration in the BIO scenario achieves the highest total annual system cost which is 0.4% higher than CNS. The robustness of the results is tested through a sensitivity analysis which shows that the costs (investment and maintenance) of biodiesel cars and EV are the most sensitive parameters in the comparative analysis of the scenarios.
KeywordsEnergy system modelling Transport Electric vehicles Biofuels STREAM model
- Börjesson, M., Grahn, M., & Ahlgren, E. O. (2013). Transport biofuel futures in energy-economic modeling—A review. Report no 2013:10, f3 The Swedish Knowledge Centre for Renewable Transportation Fuels, Sweden.Google Scholar
- Danish Energy Agency and COWI. (2013). Alternative drivmidler i transportsektoren 2.1. May 2013.Google Scholar
- Danish Energy Agency and Energinet.dk. (2012, May). Technology data for energy plants—Individual heating and energy transport.Google Scholar
- EA Energy Analyses. (2013). For Danish Energy Agency. In C. Bang, A. Vitina, J. Sterling Gregg, H. H. Lindboe (Eds.), Analysis of biomass prices—Future danish prices for straw, wood chips and wood pellets. Published by: Ea Energy Analyses, Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: http://www.ea-energianalyse.dk/reports/1280_analysis_of_biomass_prices.pdf.
- European Commission. (2009). Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources and amending and subsequently repealing Directives 2001/77/EC and 2003/30/. Official Journal of the European Union, L 140/16-L 140/61.Google Scholar
- European Commission. (2011). A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions.Google Scholar
- Finish Ministry of Employment and the Economy. (2014). Energy and climate roadmap 2050, report of the Parliamentary Committee on Energy and Climate Issues on October 16, 2014.Google Scholar
- International Energy Agency. (2012). Energy technology perspectives 2012—Pathways to a clean energy system.Google Scholar
- International Energy Agency and Nordic Energy Research. (2013a). Nordic energy technology perspective—Pathways to a carbon neutral energy future.Google Scholar
- International Energy Agency. (2013b). Energy policies of IEA Countries, Finland, 2013 review.Google Scholar
- Münster, M., Larsen, H., & Iversen, J. (2014). DTU Risø and EA energy analysis, STREAM (sustainable technology research and energy analysis model) manual. August 2014. http://www.streammodel.org.
- Ravn, HF., & Skytte, K. (2000). Uncertainty in energy-economic modelling of the electrical power sector. Annals of Operations Research, 97(1/4), 213–229.Google Scholar
- Skytte, K., & Skjerk Christensen, P. (1999). An energy system simulator for long term planning. Revista Mexicana de Fisica, 45(5), 532–538.Google Scholar
- Skytte, K., Pizarro, A., & Karlsson, KB. (2017a) Use of electric vehicles or hydrogen in the Danish transport sector in 2050?. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, 6(1), e233.Google Scholar
- Skytte, K. Olsen, OJ., Soysal, ER., & Sneum, DM. (2017b) Barriers for district heating as a source of flexibility for the electricity system. The Journal of Energy Markets, 10(2), 1–19.Google Scholar