On the Spot and Map: Interactive Model-Based Policy Support Under Deep Uncertainty

Chapter
First Online:
Part of the Public Administration and Information Technology book series (PAIT, volume 25)

Abstract

In this chapter, we discuss and demonstrate the use of ‘on the spot’ and ‘on the map’ scenario exploration and policy-support in workshop settings. First we justify the need for exploratory model-based policy workshops. Then we present some methods and techniques needed for these workshops. Special attention is paid to new techniques we believe are crucially needed for this kind of interactive workshop if time is of the essence, namely (1) techniques to quickly generate small but diverse ensembles of alternative scenarios, and (2) techniques to visualize whole-system dynamics on maps by means of geospatial animations. We subsequently describe a workshop related to the 2015–2016 European refugee crisis for which this approach and these techniques were developed and used. Finally, we discuss shortcomings and improvements to deal with these shortcomings and conclude.

Keywords

Exploratory modelling System dynamics Adaptive sampling Geospatial visualization 
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Notes

Acknowledgements

This simulation project was conducted in partnership with the Munich Security Conference. The results were shown at the Munich Strategy Forum in November 2015 in Schloss Elmau (Germany). We greatly acknowledge Datenflug for the visualizations developed for the workshop. Finally, we want to thank Jan H. Kwakkel and Willem L. Auping for their contributions to TU Delft’s EMA Workbench.

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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Faculty of Technology, Policy and ManagementDelft University of TechnologyDelftThe Netherlands
  2. 2.Greenwood Strategic AdvisorsUnteraegeriSwitzerland
  3. 3.SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation GmbHFreiburgGermany

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