The Challenge of Baltic Sea Level Change
Baltic Sea level variability is caused by different climatic and geological factors that render their understanding more difficult than for other areas of the Earth. Yet this understanding is crucial to predict with reliability the sea-level rise in the Baltic Sea that will be brought about by anthropogenic climate change. We illustrate this complexity by a few, in our opinion, important questions that ultimately are related to the estimation of long-term trends in the presence of land crust movements, to the heterogeneity of the Baltic sea-level response to atmospheric forcing, and the difficulty of identifying a sea-level rise acceleration in the observed records.
KeywordsBaltic Sea Sea level Regional factors Acceleration
This work is part of the Baltic Earth program (www.baltic-earth.eu) and contributes to the Baltic Earth Grand Challenge ‘Sea-level dynamics’. The work benefited from regular discussions within the Research Area ‘Climate Sensitivity and Sea level’ of the Cluster of Excellence Integrated 794 Climate System Analysis and Prediction (CliSAP) funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG).
- Ablain M, Cazenave A, Larnicol G, Balmaseda M, Cipollini P, Faugère Y, Fernandes MJ, Henry O, Johannessen JA, Knudsen P, Andersen O, Legeais J, Meyssignac B, Picot N, Roca M, Rudenko S, Scharffenberg MG, Stammer D, Timms G, Benveniste J (2015) Improved sea level record over the satellite altimetry era (1993–2010) from the Climate Change Initiative project. Ocean Sci 11:67–82. doi: 10.5194/os-11-67-2015 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Bogdanov VI, Medvedev MY, Solodov VA, Trapeznikov YA, Troshkov GA, Trubitsina AA et al (2000) Mean monthly series of sea level observations (1777–1993) at Kronstadt gauge, Reports of the Finnish Geodetic Institute 2000, vol 1 pp 34Google Scholar
- Church JA, Clark PU, Cazenave A, Gregory JM, Jevrejeva S, Levermann A, Merrifield MA, Milne GA, Nerem RS, Nunn PD, Payne AJ, Pfeffer WT, Stammer D, Unnikrishnan AS (2013) Sea level change. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New YorkGoogle Scholar
- Ekman M (2009) The changing level of the Baltic Sea during 300 years: a clue to understanding the earth. Summer Institute for Historical Geophysics, p 155Google Scholar
- Hünicke B, Zorita E, Soomere T, Madsen KS, Johansson M, Suursaar Ü (2015) “The BACC author team: second assessment of climate change for the Baltic Sea basin” (BACC II). Springer, Berlin, pp 155–185Google Scholar
- Jensen J, Töppe A (1986) Composition and evaluation of original records of the gauge at Travemünde/Baltic Sea since 1826. Deutsche Gewässerkundliche Mitteilungen 30(4):99–107Google Scholar
- Johansson JM, Davis JL, Scherneck HG, Milne GA, Vermeer M, Mitrovica JX, Bennet RA, Jonsson B, Elgered G, Elósegui P, Koivula H, Poutanen M, Rönnäng BO, Shapiro II (2002) Continuous GPS measurements of postglacial adjustment in Fennoscandia 1 Geodetic results. J Geophys Res 107(B8):2157 http://www.dx.doi.org/101029/2001JB000400
- Kowalewska-Kalkowska H, Marks R (2011) 200 years of sea level measurements at the Swinoujscie tide gauge – an unique opportunity to study sea level variability at a regional scale. Scientific symposium 200 years of oldest continuous record of tide-gauge in Świnoujście, 18 November 2011, Świnoujście, PolandGoogle Scholar
- Rosentau R, Meyer M, Harff J, Dietrich R, Richter A (2007) Relative sea level change in the Baltic Sea since the littorina transgression. Z Geol Wiss 35:3–16Google Scholar