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Using Demographics in Predicting Election Results with Twitter

  • Eric Sanders
  • Michelle de Gier
  • Antal van den Bosch
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 10047)

Abstract

The results of two Dutch elections are predicted by counting political party mentions from tweets. In an attempt to improve the predictions, gender and age information from the Twitter users is automatically derived and used to adapt the party counts to the demographics in the election turnout. The prediction improves only slightly in one of the elections where the correlation between election outcome and Twitter-based prediction was relatively lower to begin with (0.86 versus 0.97). The relatively inaccurate estimation of Twitter user age may hinder a larger improvement.

Keywords

Twitter Political election prediction Demographics 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Dong Nguyen who provided the TweetGenie data, TNS-Nipo who provided the demographic data of the election turnout, Ruut Brandsma of allepeilingen.com for the polling information and Eline Pilaet, who did part of the demographic annotations of the political tweeters.

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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Eric Sanders
    • 1
  • Michelle de Gier
    • 1
  • Antal van den Bosch
    • 1
  1. 1.CLS/CLSTRadboud UniversityNijmegenThe Netherlands

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