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Handbook on Sustainability Transition and Sustainable Peace pp 267–283Cite as

The Challenge of a 4°C World by 2100

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Part of the book series: Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace ((HSHES,volume 10))

Abstract

As evidenced by the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC, our understanding of the Earth System and the climate change impacts expected in the coming decades is developing at a rapid pace. Contributing to this progress, the first ever Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison (ISI-MIP) has helped to paint a clearer picture of potential impacts at different levels of global mean warming. However, along with such advances the limitations of our understanding become more apparent. A number of processes are scarcely or not at all reflected in current assessments of the risks associated with significant levels of warming. These include critical thresholds in the Earth system which, once breached, can give rise to non-linear impacts. Recent insights from West Antarctica indicate that we have already ‘tipped’ several large glacier systems there, suggesting that the risk of crossing such thresholds might be much greater than previously thought. Also excluded from a sectoral perspective are the intricate interdependencies between systems and the potential for an initial impact to cascade into a chain of impacts, or for impacts to occur simultaneously and interact in complex ways. Finally, we need to take into account the different degrees of vulnerability not only across but also within nation states. The ramifications of non-linear impacts and their uneven distribution are likely to be deleterious to the stability and wellbeing of our societies and will, we hope, never be realized. However, if we wish to understand the challenges associated with a 4°C world2, such a world needs to be imagined.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. The University of New South Wales, New South Wales, Australia

    Sophie Adams

  2. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

    Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Olivia Maria Serdeczny, Claudia Köhler & Ilona Magdalena Otto

  3. Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany

    Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

Authors
  1. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
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  2. Olivia Maria Serdeczny
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  3. Sophie Adams
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  4. Claudia Köhler
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  5. Ilona Magdalena Otto
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  6. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. AFES-PRESS, AG Friedensforschung und Europäische Sicherheitspolitik, Mosbach, Baden-Württemberg, Germany

    Hans Günter Brauch

  2. (UNAM), National Autonomous Univ. of Mexico (UNAM), Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico

    Úrsula Oswald Spring

  3. Department of Political Science, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    John Grin

  4. Res. Group Climate Change and Security, Hamburg University ZMAW, Hamburg, Germany

    Jürgen Scheffran

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Schellnhuber, H.J., Serdeczny, O.M., Adams, S., Köhler, C., Magdalena Otto, I., Schleussner, CF. (2016). The Challenge of a 4°C World by 2100. In: Brauch, H., Oswald Spring, Ú., Grin, J., Scheffran, J. (eds) Handbook on Sustainability Transition and Sustainable Peace . Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace, vol 10. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-43884-9_11

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