Population Projections by Ethnicity: Challenges and Solutions for the United Kingdom

  • Philip H. Rees
  • Pia Wohland
  • Paul Norman
  • Nikolas Lomax
  • Stephen D. Clark
Part of the Applied Demography Series book series (ADS, volume 9)


This chapter describes the context, model, estimates and assumptions for projections of ethnic group populations in England at local authority scale, and in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. A bi-regional cohort-component model is used; estimates of the component rates for ethnic groups are developed; assumptions are aligned to recent official projections with one exception. For international migration we assume higher immigration, emigration and net balances of 254 thousand in the long term compared with the most recent official assumption of 185 thousand. The projections show that the UK population grows significantly, from a population of 59.1 million in 2001 to 84.5 million in 2061. Black, Asian and other Minority ethnic groups expand their share of the UK population from 8 to 30 % in that period. This increasing diversity is greatest in the UK’s largest cities but ethnic minority groups grow fastest outside those cities. We show through a comparison of 2001 based and 2011 based projections that there is considerable uncertainty both nationally and locally in future diversity although the direction of travel to a more diverse future is certain.


Population projections Ethnicity Local projections Component estimates 



The research reported in this chapter was supported by ESRC award ES/L013878/1 for the project Evaluation, Revision and Extension of Ethnic Population Projections – NewETHPOP and by the University of Leeds Higher Education Innovation Fund. The datasets used in the analysis were sourced from the Office for National Statistics, National Records Scotland and the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency under the terms of the UK’s Open Government Licence and are subject to Crown Copyright.


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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Philip H. Rees
    • 1
  • Pia Wohland
    • 2
  • Paul Norman
    • 1
  • Nikolas Lomax
    • 1
  • Stephen D. Clark
    • 1
  1. 1.School of GeographyUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
  2. 2.Hull York Medical SchoolUniversity of HullHullUK

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