AdaWIRL: A Novel Bayesian Ranking Approach for Personal Big-Hit Paper Prediction

  • Chuxu Zhang
  • Lu Yu
  • Jie Lu
  • Tao ZhouEmail author
  • Zi-Ke ZhangEmail author
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 9659)


Predicting the most impactful (big-hit) paper among a researcher’s publications so it can be well disseminated in advance not only has a large impact on individual academic success, but also provides useful guidance to the research community. In this work, we tackle the problem of given the corpus of a researcher’s publications in previous few years, how to effectively predict which paper will become the big-hit in the future. We explore a series of features that can drive a paper to become the big-hit, and design a novel Bayesian ranking algorithm AdaWIRL (Adaptive Weighted Impact Ranking Learning) that leverages a weighted training schema and an adaptive timely false correction strategy to predict big-hit papers. Experimental results on the large ArnetMiner dataset with over 1.7 million authors and 2 million papers demonstrate the effectiveness of AdaWIRL. Specifically, it correctly predicts over 78.3 % of all researchers’ big-hit papers and outperforms the compared regression and ranking algorithms, with an average of \(5.8\,\%\) and \(2.9\,\%\) improvement respectively. Further analysis shows that temporal features are the best indicator for personal big-hit papers, while authorship and social features are less relevant. We also demonstrate that there is a high correlation between the impact of a researcher’s future works and their similarity to the predicted big-hit paper.


Latent Dirichlet Allocation Citation Count Average Citation Ranking Algorithm Academic Feature 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.



This work was partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 11305043, No. 61433014), and the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (No. LY14A050001), the EU FP7 Grant 611272 (project GROWTHCOM) and Zhejiang Provincial Qianjiang Talents Project (Grant No. QJC1302001). Chuxu Zhang thanks to the assistantship of Computer Science Department of Rutgers University and Internship Experience of IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center.


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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Alibaba Research Centre for Complexity SciencesHangzhou Normal UniversityHangzhouChina
  2. 2.Department of Computer ScienceRutgers UniversityNew BrunswickUSA
  3. 3.Alibaba GroupHangzhouChina
  4. 4.IBM Thomas J. Watson Research CenterYorktown HeightUSA
  5. 5.Big Data Research CenterUniversity of Electronic Science and Technology of ChinaChengduChina

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