Crude Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Performances in the ASEAN Economies

  • Giray GozgorEmail author
  • Youngho Chang
  • Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin
Conference paper
Part of the Eurasian Studies in Business and Economics book series (EBES, volume 4)


This paper examines the relationship between the crude oil price shocks and the macroeconomic performance in the panel data set of 10 ASEAN economies: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, over the period 1970–2013. We implement a second-generation panel unit root test, the panel cointegration analysis, accounting for multiple structural breaks, the panel dynamic ordinary least squares (PDOLS) estimations, and the panel-causality test in sequence. The empirical findings imply that there is only a statistically significant cointegration between the crude oil prices and the real GDP per capita levels. The results of the panel-causality test also indicate that there is a significant pairwise causal relationship between the levels of crude oil price and the real GDP per capita. In addition, the results of the PDOLS estimations indicate that 10 % increase in the crude oil price leads to 1.8 % increase in the real GDP per capita in the ASEAN economies in general. Running the common correlated effects panel estimations, we obtain the coefficients for each country and observe that the significant and positive effects are valid in 7 of 10 countries.


Crude oil price shocks Income Unemployment Inflation Domestic credits ASEAN economies Panel data estimation techniques 


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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Giray Gozgor
    • 1
    Email author
  • Youngho Chang
    • 2
  • Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin
    • 1
  1. 1.Faculty of Political SciencesIstanbul Medeniyet UniversityIstanbulTurkey
  2. 2.Department of EconomicsNanyang Technological UniversitySingaporeSingapore

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