Advertisement

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Water and Land Context

  • Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
Chapter

Abstract

Risks of climate change impacts on water and land have affected natural and human systems and are projected to increase significantly with increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. There are key risks, spanning sectors, and regions. We can adapt to climate change impacts or mitigate the climate change. Prospects for climate-resilient sustainable development are related fundamentally to what the world accomplishes with climate change mitigation. Greater rates and degrees of climate change increase the likelihood of exceeding adaptation limits and make satisfactory adaptation much costlier and difficult, if not impossible. Increasing efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change imply an increasing complexity of interactions, particularly among water, energy, land use, and biodiversity. Adaptation and mitigation choices have implications for future societies, economies, environment, and climate in the long term. Responding to climate-related risks involves decision making in a changing world, with continuing uncertainty about the severity and timing of climate change impacts and with limits to adaptation.

Keywords

Climate Change European Union Climate Change Impact Climate Change Adaptation Radiative Force 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Notes

Acknowledgments

The author acknowledges the useful and constructive remarks of two anonymous referees that helped improve this document.

References

  1. Adger, W.N., S. Agrawala, M.M.Q. Mirza, C. Conde, K. O’Brien, J. Pulhin, R. Pulwarty, B. Smit, and K. Takahashi. 2007. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity. Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, ed. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, and C.E. Hanson, 717–743. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  2. Anagnostopoulos, G.G., D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, and N. Mamassis. 2010. A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data. Hydrological Sciences Journal 55(7): 1094–1110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. CEC (Commission of European Communities). 2007. Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council on the assessment and management of floods. Brussels, p.27. 2007/60/EC (OJ L288, 6.11.2007).Google Scholar
  4. Cohn, T.A., and H.F. Lins. 2005. Nature’s style: Naturally trendy. Geophysical Research Letters 32(23): L23402.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Döll, P., B. Jiménez-Cisneros, T. Oki, N.W. Arnell, G. Benito, J.G. Cogley, T. Jiang, Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Mwakalila, and A. Nishijima. 2014. Integrating risks of climate change into water management. Hydrological Sciences Journal 60(1): 4–13.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.). 2012. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A special report of working groups I and II of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge/New York: Cambridge University Press. 582 pp.Google Scholar
  7. Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, M. van Aalst, W.N. Adger, D.J. Arent, J. Barnett, R. Betts, T.E. Bilir, J. Birkmann, J. Carmin, D.D. Chadee, A.J. Challinor, M. Chatterjee, W. Cramer, D.J. Davidson, Y.O. Estrada, J.-P. Gattuso, Y. Hijioka, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, H.Q. Huang, G.E. Insarov, R.N. Jones, R.S. Kovats, P. Romero-Lankao, J.N. Larsen, I.J. Losada, J.A. Marengo, R.F. McLean, L.O. Mearns, R. Mechler, J.F. Morton, I. Niang, T. Oki, J.M. Olwoch, M. Opondo, E.S. Poloczanska, H.-O. Pörtner, M.H. Redsteer, A. Reisinger, A. Revi, D.N. Schmidt, M.R. Shaw, W. Solecki, D.A. Stone, J.M.R. Stone, K.M. Strzepek, A.G. Suarez, P. Tschakert, R. Valentini, S. Vicuńa, A. Villamizar, K.E. Vincent, R. Warren, L.L. White, T.J. Wilbanks, P.P. Wong, and G.W. Yohe. 2014. Technical summary. In Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, ed. C.B. Field, V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White, 35–94. Cambridge/New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  8. Gerten, D., S. Rost, W. von Bloh, and W. Lucht. 2008. Causes of change in 20th century global river discharge. Geophysical Research Letters 35(20): L20405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Gerten, D., Heinke, J., Hoff, H., et al. 2011. Global water availability and requirements for future food production. Journal of Hydrometeorology 12(5): 885–899.Google Scholar
  10. Green, C., and S. Eslamian. 2014. Water governance. In Handbook of engineering hydrology. Vol 3, Environmental hydrology and water management, ed. S. Eslamian. Boca Raton: Taylor and Francis.Google Scholar
  11. Green, C., and Z.W. Kundzewicz. 2015. Towards a systems approach to flood risk management (unpublished manuscript).Google Scholar
  12. Hoff, H. 2011. Understanding the nexus. Background paper for the Bonn 2011 conference: Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.Google Scholar
  13. IPCC. 2013. Summary for policymakers. In Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, ed. T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P.M. Midgley. Cambridge/New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  14. IPCC. 2014. Summary for policymakers. In Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, ed. C.B. Field, V.R. Barros, M.D. Mastrandrea, and K.J. Mach. Cambridge/New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  15. Jiménez, B.E.C., et al. 2014. Freshwater resources. In Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [online], ed. C.B. Field, et al., 229–269. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  16. Klijn, F., M. van Buuren, and S.A.M. van Rooij. 2004. Flood-risk management strategies for an uncertain future: Living with Rhine river floods in the Netherlands? Ambio 33: 141–147.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Montanari, H.F. Lins, and T.A. Cohn. 2009. Climate, hydrology and freshwater: Towards an interactive incorporation of hydrological experience into climate research. Discussion of ‘The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management’ by Kundzewicz et al. (2008). Hydrological Sciences Journal 54(2): 394–405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Kundzewicz, Z.W. 2014. Fifth IPCC assessment report now out. Papers on Global Change 21: 9–27.Google Scholar
  19. Kundzewicz, Z.W., and D. Gerten. 2015. Grand challenges related to the assessment of climate change impacts on freshwater resources. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. 20(1) SI Article Number: A4014011 http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001012.
  20. Kundzewicz, Z.W., Sh. Kanae, S.I. Seneviratne, J. Handmer, N. Nicholls, P. Peduzzi, R. Mechler, L.M. Bouwer, N. Arnell, K. Mach, R. Muir-Wood, G.R. Brakenridge, W. Kron, G. Benito, Y. Honda, K. Takahashi, and B. Sherstyukov. 2014. Flood risk and climate change: Global and regional perspectives. Hydrological Sciences Journal 59(1): 1–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Kundzewicz, Z.W., L.J. Mata, N.W. Arnell, P. Döll, P. Kabat, B. Jiménez, K.A. Miller, T. Oki, Z. Sen, and I.A. Shiklomanov. 2007. Freshwater resources and their management. In Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, ed. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, and C.E. Hanson, 173–210. Cambridge/New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  22. Kundzewicz, Z.W., L.J. Mata, N.W. Arnell, P. Döll, B. Jiménez, K.A. Miller, T. Oki, Z. Sen, and I.A. Shiklomanov. 2008. The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management. Hydrological Sciences Journal 53(1): 3–10.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Kundzewicz, Z.W., and H.-J. Schellnhuber. 2004. Floods in the IPCC TAR perspective. Natural Hazards 31: 111–128.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Kundzewicz, Z.W., and E.Z. Stakhiv. 2010. Are climate models “ready for prime time” in water resources management applications, or is more research needed? Editorial. Hydrological Sciences Journal 55(7): 1085–1089.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Milly, P.C.D., J. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark, R.M. Hirsch, Z.W. Kundzewicz, D.P. Lettenmaier, and R.J. Stouffer. 2008. Stationarity is dead: Whither water management? Science 319: 573–574.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Stern, N. (ed.). 2006. The economics of climate change—The Stern review. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  27. Mimura, N., R.S. Pulwarty, D.M. Duc, I. Elshinnawy, M.H. Redsteer, H.Q. Huang, J.N. Nkem, and R.A. Sanchez Rodriguez. 2014. Adaptation planning and implementation. In Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, ed. C.B. Field, V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White, 869–898. Cambridge/New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  28. Noble, I.R., S. Huq, Y.A. Anokhin, J. Carmin, D. Goudou, F.P. Lansigan, B. Osman-Elasha, and A. Villamizar. 2014. Adaptation needs and options. In Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, ed. C.B. Field, V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White, 833–868. Cambridge/New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  29. Trenberth, K. 2010. More knowledge, less certainty. Nature Reports Climate Change 4: 29.Google Scholar
  30. Wigley, T.M.L. 2005. The climate change commitment. Science 307(5716): 1766–1769.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Wilby, R.L. 2010. Evaluating climate model outputs for hydrological applications. Hydrological Sciences Journal 55(7): 1090–1093.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Wilby, R. L., Beven, K. J., and Reynard, N. S. 2008. Climate change and fluvial risk in the UK: More of the same? Hydrological Processes 22(14): 2511–2523.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Institute for Agricultural and Forest EnvironmentPolish Academy of SciencesPoznańPoland
  2. 2.Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchPotsdamGermany

Personalised recommendations