International Conference and School on Network Science

Advances in Network Science pp 29-42 | Cite as

Going Beyond GDP to Nowcast Well-Being Using Retail Market Data

  • Riccardo Guidotti
  • Michele Coscia
  • Dino Pedreschi
  • Diego Pennacchioli
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 9564)

Abstract

One of the most used measures of the economic health of a nation is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP): the market value of all officially recognized final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. GDP, prosperity and well-being of the citizens of a country have been shown to be highly correlated. However, GDP is an imperfect measure in many respects. GDP usually takes a lot of time to be estimated and arguably the well-being of the people is not quantifiable simply by the market value of the products available to them. In this paper we use a quantification of the average sophistication of satisfied needs of a population as an alternative to GDP. We show that this quantification can be calculated more easily than GDP and it is a very promising predictor of the GDP value, anticipating its estimation by six months. The measure is arguably a more multifaceted evaluation of the well-being of the population, as it tells us more about how people are satisfying their needs. Our study is based on a large dataset of retail micro transactions happening across the Italian territory.

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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Riccardo Guidotti
    • 1
    • 2
  • Michele Coscia
    • 3
  • Dino Pedreschi
    • 2
  • Diego Pennacchioli
    • 1
  1. 1.KDDLab ISTI CNRPisaItaly
  2. 2.KDDLab, CS DepartmentUniversity of PisaPisaItaly
  3. 3.CID - HKSCambridgeUSA

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