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Outcome Prediction for Patients with Traumatic Brain Injury with Dynamic Features from Intracranial Pressure and Arterial Blood Pressure Signals: A Gaussian Process Approach

  • Marco A. F. Pimentel
  • Thomas Brennan
  • Li-wei Lehman
  • Nicolas Kon Kam King
  • Beng-Ti Ang
  • Mengling Feng
Part of the Acta Neurochirurgica Supplement book series (NEUROCHIRURGICA, volume 122)

Abstract

Previous work has been demonstrated that tracking features describing the dynamic and time-varying patterns in brain monitoring signals provide additional predictive information beyond that derived from static features based on snapshot measurements. To achieve more accurate predictions of outcomes of patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI), we proposed a statistical framework to extract dynamic features from brain monitoring signals based on the framework of Gaussian processes (GPs). GPs provide an explicit probabilistic, nonparametric Bayesian approach to metric regression problems. This not only provides probabilistic predictions, but also gives the ability to cope with missing data and infer model parameters such as those that control the function’s shape, noise level and dynamics of the signal. Through experimental evaluation, we have demonstrated that dynamic features extracted from GPs provide additional predictive information in addition to the features based on the pressure reactivity index (PRx). Significant improvements in patient outcome prediction were achieved by combining GP-based and PRx-based dynamic features. In particular, compared with the a baseline PRx-based model, the combined model achieved over 30 % improvement in prediction accuracy and sensitivity and over 20 % improvement in specificity and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

Keywords

Gaussian process Intracranial pressure Dynamic features and outcome prediction 

Notes

Acknowledgments

Dr Mengling Feng’s fellowship is funded by A*STAR Graduate Scholarship (AGS). Marco A F Pimentel is supported by the RCUK Digital Economy Program grant number EP/G036861/1 (Oxford Centre for Doctoral Training in Healthcare Innovation) and FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia – under grant SFRH/DB/79799/2011.

Conflict of Interest Statement

We declare that we have no conflicts of interest.

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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Marco A. F. Pimentel
    • 1
  • Thomas Brennan
    • 2
  • Li-wei Lehman
    • 2
  • Nicolas Kon Kam King
    • 3
  • Beng-Ti Ang
    • 3
  • Mengling Feng
    • 2
    • 4
  1. 1.Department of Engineering ScienceInstitute of Biomedical Engineering, University of OxfordOxfordUK
  2. 2.Laboratory for Computational PhysiologyInstitute for Medical Engineering and Science, E25-505 Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridgeUSA
  3. 3.National Neuroscience InstituteSingaporeSingapore
  4. 4.Department of Data AnalyticsA*STAR, Institute for Infocomm ResearchSingaporeSingapore

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