Risk Assessment

Chapter

Abstract

The international discussion on risk has mostly originated from the assessment of risk in the fields of medical services, the chemical industry, and especially after the nuclear catastrophes of Three Mile Island (United States) in 1979 and Chernobyl (former Soviet Union). The discussion is not detailed here, but authors including Paul Slovic, Stanley Kaplan, Ulrich Beck, Ortwin Renn, and many others are the main representatives who have given a multitude of explanations and examples of risk assessment. Today in every nation worldwide are institutionalized organizations, such as the Wissenschaftliche Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen (WBGU) in Germany, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Corporation, the Swiss Nagra, the British Civil Contingencies Secretariat (SCC), or the US Federal Emergency Management Agency/Department of Homeland Security (FEMA). These organizations deal with all kinds of technical and man-made but also natural disasters and all have contributed substantially to the subject.

Keywords

Risk Assessment Gross Domestic Product Natural Disaster Risk Index Disaster Risk 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

References

  1. Arnold, M., Dilley, M., Deichmann, U., Chen, R.S. & Lerner-Lam, A.L. (2005) : Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis. – The World Bank, Disaster Management Series, No. 5, Washington DCGoogle Scholar
  2. Aven, T. & Renn, O. (2009): The Role of Quantitative Risk Assessments for Characterizing Risk and Uncertainty and Delineating Appropriate Risk Management Options, with Special Emphasis on Terrorism Risk. - Risk Analysis, Vol. 29.4, p.587, Wiley Online LibraryGoogle Scholar
  3. Bukowski, J., Korn, L. & Wartenberg, D. (1995): Correlated inputs in quantitative risk Assessment - The effects of distributional shape. – Risk Analysis, Vol. 15, No 2, Wiley Online LibraryGoogle Scholar
  4. Burton, I., Kates, R.W. & White, G.F. (1993): The environment as hazard (2nd edition).- The Guilford Press London/New York NYGoogle Scholar
  5. Cardona, O. (2005): Indicators of disaster risk and risk management: Program für Latin America and the Caribbean- Summary Report.- Inter-American Development Bank (IBD), Sustainable Development Department, The World Bank, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  6. Carlsson, F., Daruvala, D. & Jaldell, H. (2010): Value of statistical life and cause of accident: A choice experiment. - Risk Analysis, Vol. 30, No.9, p.975-986, Wiley Online LibraryGoogle Scholar
  7. Coburn, A.W., Spence, R.J.S. & Pomonis, A. (1991): Vulnerability and risk assessment. – United Nations Development Program/United Nations Disaster Reduction Organization (UNDP/UNDRO), Disaster Management Training Program, GenevaGoogle Scholar
  8. Davidson, R.A. & Shah, H.C. (1997): An urban earthquake disaster risk index.- John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Center, Stanford University CAGoogle Scholar
  9. Dilley, M., Chen, R.S., Deichmann, U., Lerner-Lam, A.L., Arnold, M. with Agwe, J., Buys, P., Kjekstad, O., Lyon, B. & Yetman, G. (2005): Natural disaster hotspots - A Global Risk Analysis - Synthesis Report.- The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank and Columbia University, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  10. ECLAC (2003): Handbook on estimating the socio-economic and environmental effects of disasters. - United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, Washington DCGoogle Scholar
  11. Enarson, E. (2000): Gender and Natural Disasters - InFus Programme on Crisis Response and Reconstruction,. – International Labor Organization, Recover and Reconstruction Department (ILO), Working Paper No. 1, GenevaGoogle Scholar
  12. EPA (2010): Frequently Asked Questions on Mortality Risk Valuation.- National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington DC Google Scholar
  13. Felgentreff, C. & Glade, Th. (2008): Naturrisiken – Sozialkatastrophen in: Felgentreff, C. & Glade, T (eds.): Naturrisiken und Sozialkatastrophen, Spectrum, HeidelbergGoogle Scholar
  14. FEMA (2002a): Building Support for Mitigation Planning – How to Guide. - Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Publication 386, Vol 1-9, Washington DCGoogle Scholar
  15. FEMA (2002b): Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Handbook. – FEMA Hazard Mitigation Handbook Series, update June 2002, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Washington DCGoogle Scholar
  16. FEMA (2004): Using HAZUS-MH for Risk Assessment - HAZUS-MH Risk Assessment and User Group Series Using; How to Guide. - Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Publication 433, Washington DCGoogle Scholar
  17. FEMA (2008): Flood Insurance Manual – National Flood Insurance Program. – Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Washington DC (online: www.fema.gov/…/flood-insurance-manual-effective-may-1-2008)
  18. FEMA (2014): Hazus-MH 2.1 - Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology.- Federal Emergency Management Agency, United States Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC (online: www.hazus.org)
  19. German Alliance Development Works (2013): WeltRisikoBericht 2012. - German Alliance Help, BonnGoogle Scholar
  20. Germanwatch (2014): Global Climate Risk Index 2014 – Who suffers most from extreme weather events? Weather-related loss events in 2012 and 1993 to 2012. – Germanwatch e.V., Bonn (online: www.germanwatch.org/en/cri)
  21. IPCC (2012): Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance - Climate Change Adaptation. - Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge MDGoogle Scholar
  22. Kaplan, S. (1997): The words of risk analysis. – Risk Analysis, Vol. 17, Issue 4, p. 407-417.- Wiley Online LibraryGoogle Scholar
  23. Kasperson, R.E., Renn, O., Slovic, P., Brown, H.S., Emel, J., Goble, R., Kasperson, J.X. & Ratick S. (1988): The social amplification of Risk: A Conceptual Framework. – Risk Analysis, Vol. 8, No. 2, Wiley Online LibraryGoogle Scholar
  24. Kirchsteiger, C. (1999): On the use of probabilistic and deterministic methods in risk analysis. - Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, Vol. 12, p.399– 419, Elsevier, Philadelphia PAGoogle Scholar
  25. Lindhjem, H., Navrud, S., Braathen, N.A. & Biausque, V. (2011): Valuing mortality risk reductions from environmental, transport and health polices: A global meta-analysis of stated preferences studies.- Risk Analysis, Vol. 31, No.9, p.1381-1407, Wiley Online LibraryGoogle Scholar
  26. Maplecroft (2010): Natural Disaster Risk Index 2010. – Maplecroft United Kingdom, Bath (online: http://maplecroft.com/)
  27. MunichRe (2011): World Map of Natural Hazards. – Munich Reinsurance Company, Nathan, 2011-Version. MunichGoogle Scholar
  28. MunichRe (2012): Topics Geo online – 2012. - Munich Reinsurance Company, MunichGoogle Scholar
  29. MunichRe (2013): Topics Geo online - 2013. - Munich Reinsurance Company, MunichGoogle Scholar
  30. Peduzzi,P., Dao, H., Herold,C. with contributions from A. Martin Diaz, F. Mouton, O. Nordbeck, D. Rochette, T. Ton-That, B. Widmer (2002): Global Risk and Vulnerability Index-Trends per Year (GRAVITY) - Phase II: Development, analysis and results. - The Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery of the United Nation Development Programme, GenevaGoogle Scholar
  31. Peduzzi, P., Dao, H. & Herold, C. (2005): Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets. – Natural Hazards, Vol. 35, No. 2, p.265–289, Springer LinkGoogle Scholar
  32. Peduzzi, P., Dao, H., Herold, C. & Mouton, F. (2009): Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards: the Disaster Risk Index. – Natural Hazards Earth Systems Sciences, Vol. 9 p.1149—1159, Copernicus Publications, GoettingenGoogle Scholar
  33. Power,M. & McCarry, L.S. (1996): Probabilistic risk assessment: Betting on its future. - Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, Vol. 2, No. 1 p.30-34, Taylor Francis OnlineGoogle Scholar
  34. Purdy, G. (2010): ISO 31000:2009 — Setting a New Standard for Risk Management. - Risk Analysis, Vol. 30, No. 6, p.881–886, Wiley Online LibraryGoogle Scholar
  35. Quarantelli, E.L. (1989): Conceptualizing disasters from a sociological perspective. – International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, Vol. 7, No. 3, Mattoon ILGoogle Scholar
  36. Renn, O. (1989): Risikowahrnehmung und Risikobewertung in der Gesellschaft – in: Hosemann, G. (ed): Risiko in der Industriegesellschaft, Analyse, Vorsorge and Akzeptanz. - Erlanger Forschungen, Vol. 19, p.176-192, ErlangenGoogle Scholar
  37. Renn, O. (2003): Social Amplification of Risk in Participation: Two Case Studies; p.374-401: in: Pidgeon, N., Kasperson R.E. & Slovic, P. (eds.): The Social Amplification of Risk. -Cambridge University Press, Cambridge MDGoogle Scholar
  38. Slovic, P. (1987): The perception of risk. – Science, Vol. 236, p.280-285, Washington DCGoogle Scholar
  39. Slovic, P. (2000): The Perception of Risk.- Earthscan Publications, p.473, LondonGoogle Scholar
  40. Slovic, P. (2002): Terrorism as hazard: A new species of trouble.- Risk Analysis, Vol. 22, Issue 3, p.425-426, Wiley Online LibraryGoogle Scholar
  41. Subbiah, A.R., Bildan, L. & Narasimhan, R. (2008): Background paper on assessment of the economics of early warning systems for disaster risk reduction. Report submitted to the World Bank Group, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR / Contract 7148513). - Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, BangkokGoogle Scholar
  42. Tobin, G.A. & Montz, B.E. (eds)(1997): Natural Hazards – Explanation and Integration. - The Guilford Press, London/New York NYGoogle Scholar
  43. UNDP (2004a): International patterns of risk. – in: Reducing disaster risk - A challenge for development, Chapter 2; United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, United Nations, GenevaGoogle Scholar
  44. UNDP (2004b): International patterns of risk. – in: Reducing disaster risk - A challenge for development, Chapter 2; United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, United Nations, GenevaGoogle Scholar
  45. UNDP (2004c): Reducing disaster risk – A challenge for development. - United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Bureau of Crisis Prevention and Recovery, United Nations, GenevaGoogle Scholar
  46. UNDRO (1979): Natural disaster and vulnerability analysis. - Office of the United Nations Disaster Relief Co-ordinator (UNDRO), Report of Expert Group (9-12 July, 1979), United Nations, GenevaGoogle Scholar
  47. UNISDR (2004): Living with Risk - A Global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives”. – United Nation International Strategy of Disaster Reduction (ISDR), United Nations, GenevaGoogle Scholar
  48. USEPA (1997): Guiding principles for Monte Carlo Analysis. – Risk Assessment Forum, United States Environmental Protection Agency EPA) (online: www.EPA/630/R-97/001)
  49. USGS (2005): An Assessment of Volcanic Threat and Monitoring Capabilities in the United States: Framework for a National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS). – United States Geological Survey (USGS), Open-File Report, 2005-1164, Reston VAGoogle Scholar
  50. Viscusi, W.K. & Aldy, J.E. (2002): The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates troughout the World.- Harvard Law School, John M. Olin Center for Law, Economics and Business, Discussion Paper Series, No.392, Cambridge MDGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.BurgdorfGermany

Personalised recommendations