Simulating Forest Landscape Disturbances as Coupled Human and Natural Systems

  • Michael C. Wimberly
  • Terry L. Sohl
  • Zhihua Liu
  • Aashis Lamsal
Chapter

Abstract

Anthropogenic disturbances resulting from human land use affect forest landscapes over a range of spatial and temporal scales, with diverse influences on vegetation patterns and dynamics. These processes fall within the scope of the coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) concept, which has emerged as an important framework for understanding the reciprocal interactions and feedbacks that connect human activities and ecosystem responses. Spatial simulation modeling of forest landscape change is an important technique for exploring the dynamics of CHANS over large areas and long time periods. Landscape models for simulating interactions between human activities and forest landscape dynamics can be grouped into two main categories. Forest landscape models (FLMs) focus on landscapes where forests are the dominant land cover and simulate succession and natural disturbances along with forest management activities. In contrast, land change models (LCMs) simulate mosaics of different land cover and land use classes that include forests in addition to other land uses such as developed areas and agricultural lands. There are also several examples of coupled models that combine elements of FLMs and LCMs. These integrated models are particularly useful for simulating human–natural interactions in landscapes where human settlement and agriculture are expanding into forested areas. Despite important differences in spatial scale and disciplinary scope, FLMs and LCMs have many commonalities in conceptual design and technical implementation that can facilitate continued integration. The ultimate goal will be to implement forest landscape disturbance modeling in a CHANS framework that recognizes the contextual effects of regional land use and other human activities on the forest ecosystem while capturing the reciprocal influences of forests and their disturbances on the broader land use mosaic.

References

  1. Agee JK, Skinner CN (2005) Basic principles of forest fuel reduction treatments. For Ecol Manage 211(1–2):83–96Google Scholar
  2. Ager AA, Valliant NM, Finney MA (2010) A comparison of landscape fuel treatment strategies to mitigate wildland fire risk in the urban interface and preserve old forest structure. For Ecol Manage 259(8):1556–1570Google Scholar
  3. Akcakaya HR, Radeloff VC, Mlandenoff DJ, He HS (2004) Integrating landscape and metapopulation modeling approaches: viability of the sharp-tailed grouse in a dynamic landscape. Conserv Biol 18(2):526–537Google Scholar
  4. Andam KS, Ferraro PJ, Sims KR, Healy A, Holland MB (2010) Protected areas reduced poverty in Costa Rica and Thailand. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(22):9996–10001PubMedCentralPubMedGoogle Scholar
  5. Barreto L, Schoorl JM, Kok K, Veldkamp T, Hass A (2013) Modelling potential landscape sediment delivery due to projected soybean expansion: a scenario study of the sub-basin, Cerrado, Maranhão state, Brazil. J Environ Manage 115:270–277PubMedGoogle Scholar
  6. Baskent EZ (1997) Assessment of structural dynamics in forest landscape management. Can J For Res 27(10):1675–1684Google Scholar
  7. Bell EJ (1974) Markov analysis of land use change—an application of stochastic processes to remotely sensed data. Socio Econ Plan Sci 8(6):311–316Google Scholar
  8. Berry AH, Hesseln H (2004) The effect of the wildland–urban interface on prescribed burning costs in the Pacific Northwestern United States. J For 102(6):33–37Google Scholar
  9. Bettinger P, Johnson KN (2003) Spatial scheduling of forest management activities using a dynamic deterministic harvest block aggregation process. J For Plan 9(1):25–34Google Scholar
  10. Bettinger P, Lennette M, Johnson KN, Spies TA (2005) A hierarchical spatial framework for forest landscape planning. Ecol Model 182(1):25–48Google Scholar
  11. Bierwagen BG, Theobald DM, Pyke CR, Choate A, Groth P, Thomas JV, Morefield P (2010) National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(49):20887–20892PubMedCentralPubMedGoogle Scholar
  12. Bodin Ö, Tengö M, Norman A, Lundberg J, Elmqvist T (2006) The value of small size: loss of forest patches and ecological thresholds in southern Madagascar. Ecol Appl 16(2):440–451PubMedGoogle Scholar
  13. Boychuk D, Perera AH (1997) Modeling temporal variability of boreal landscape age classes under different fire disturbance regimes and spatial scales. Can J For Res 27:1083–1094Google Scholar
  14. Brown DG, Pijanowski BC, Duh JD (2000) Modeling the relationships between land use and land cover on private lands in the Upper Midwest, USA. J Environ Manage 59(4):247–263Google Scholar
  15. Bu R, He HS, Hu Y, Chang Y, Larsen DR (2008) Using the LANDIS model to evaluate forest harvesting and planting strategies under possible warming climates in Northeastern China. For Ecol Manage 254:407–419Google Scholar
  16. Carter NH, Shrestha BK, Karki JB, Pradhan NMB, Liu J (2012) Coexistence between wildlife and humans at fine spatial scales. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109(38):15360–15365PubMedCentralPubMedGoogle Scholar
  17. Castella J-C, Trung TN, Boissau S (2005) Participatory simulation of land-use changes in the northern mountains of Vietnam: the combined use of an agent-based model, a role-playing game, and a geographic information system. Ecol Soc 10(1):27Google Scholar
  18. Chew JD, Stalling C, Moeller K (2004) Integrating knowledge for simulating vegetation change at landscape scales. West J Appl For 19(2):102–108Google Scholar
  19. Cincotta RP, Wisnewski J, Engelman R (2000) Human population in the biodiversity hotspots. Nature 404(6781):990–992PubMedGoogle Scholar
  20. Claessens L, Schoorl JM, Verburg PH, Geraedts L, Veldkamp A (2009) Modelling interactions and feedback mechanisms between land use change and landscape processes. Agr Ecosys Environ 129(1–3):157–170Google Scholar
  21. Claggett PR, Jantz CA, Goetz SJ, Bisland C (2004) Assessing development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed: an evaluation of two land-use change models. Environ Monit Assess 94(1–3):129–146PubMedGoogle Scholar
  22. Clarke KC, Hoppen S, Gaydos L (1997) A self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay area. Environ Plann B 24:247–261Google Scholar
  23. Cochrane MA, Barber CP (2009) Climate change, human land use and future fires in the Amazon. Glob Change Biol 15(3):601–612Google Scholar
  24. Cochrane MA, Alencar A, Schulze MD, Souza CM, Nepstad DC, Lefebvre P, Davidson EA (1999) Positive feedbacks in the fire dynamic of closed canopy tropical forests. Science 284(5421):1832–1835PubMedGoogle Scholar
  25. Curran LM, Trigg SN, McDonald AK, Astiani D, Hardiono Y, Siregar P, Caniago I, Kasischke E (2004) Lowland forest loss in protected areas of Indonesian Borneo. Science 303(5660):1000–1003PubMedGoogle Scholar
  26. de Filho FJBO, Metzger JP (2006) Thresholds in landscape structure for three common deforestation patterns in the Brazilian Amazon. Landscape Ecol 21(7):1061–1073Google Scholar
  27. Fernandes PM, Botelho HS (2003) A review of prescribed burning effectiveness in fire hazard reduction. Int J Wildland Fire 12(2):117–128Google Scholar
  28. Fisher R, McDowell N, Purves D, Moorcroft P, Sitch S, Cox P, Huntingford C, Meir P, Woodward FI (2010) Assessing uncertainties in a second-generation dynamic vegetation model caused by ecological scale limitations. New Phytol 187(3):666–681PubMedGoogle Scholar
  29. Foster DR (1992) Land-use history (1730–1990) and vegetation dynamics in central New England, USA. J Ecol 80(4):753–772Google Scholar
  30. Franklin JF, Spies TA, Van Pelt R, Carey AB, Thornburgh DA, Berg DR, Lindenmayer DB, Harmon ME, Keeton WS, Shaw DC, Bible K, Chen JQ (2002) Disturbances and structural development of natural forest ecosystems with silvicultural implications, using Douglas-fir forests as an example. For Ecol Manage 155(1–3):399–423Google Scholar
  31. Fraser JS, He HS, Shifley SR, Wang WJ, Thompson FR (2013) Simulating stand-level harvest prescriptions across landscapes: LANDIS PRO harvest module design. Can J For Res 43:972–978Google Scholar
  32. Geist HJ, Lambin EF (2002) Proximate causes and underlying driving forces of tropical deforestation: tropical forests are disappearing as the result of many pressures, both local and regional, acting in various combinations in different geographical locations. Bioscience 52(2):143–150Google Scholar
  33. Guan D, Gao W, Watari K, Fukahori H (2008) Land use change of Kitakyushu based on landscape ecology and Markov model. J Geogr Sci 18(4):455–468Google Scholar
  34. Gustafson EJ, Crow TR (1996) Simulating the effects of alternative forest management strategies on landscape structure. J Environ Manage 46(1):77–94Google Scholar
  35. Gustafson EJ, Sturtevant BR (2013) Modeling forest mortality caused by drought stress: implications for climate change. Ecosystems 16(1):60–74Google Scholar
  36. Gustafson EJ, Shifley SR, Mladenoff DJ, Nimerfro KK, He HS (2000) Spatial simulation of forest succession and timber harvesting using LANDIS. Can J For Res 30(1):32–43Google Scholar
  37. Gustafson EJ, Shvidenko AZ, Sturtevant BR, Scheller RM (2010) Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia. Ecol Appl 20(3):700–715PubMedGoogle Scholar
  38. He HS (2008) Forest landscape models: definitions, characterization, and classification. For Ecol Manage 254(3):484–498Google Scholar
  39. He HS, Mladenoff DJ (1999) Spatially explicit and stochastic simulation of forest-landscape fire disturbance and succession. Ecology 80(1):81–99Google Scholar
  40. He HS, Shang BZ, Crow TR, Gustafson EJ, Shifley SR (2004) Simulating forest fuel and fire risk dynamics across landscapes—LANDIS fuel module design. Ecol Model 180(1):135–151Google Scholar
  41. Hernández Encinas L, Hoya White S, Martín del Rey A, Rodríguez Sánchez G (2007) Modelling forest fire spread using hexagonal cellular automata. Appl Math Model 31(6):1213–1227Google Scholar
  42. Herold M, Goldstein NC, Clarke KC (2003) The spatiotemporal form of urban growth: measurement, analysis and modeling. Remote Sens Environ 86(3):286–302Google Scholar
  43. Hirota M, Holmgren M, Van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2011) Global resilience of tropical forest and savanna to critical transitions. Science 334(6053):232–235PubMedGoogle Scholar
  44. Horn HS (1975) Markovian properties of forest succession. In: Cody ML, Diamond JM (eds) Ecology and evolution of communities. Belknap Press, Cambridge, pp 196–211Google Scholar
  45. Jantz CA, Goetz SJ, Donato D, Claggett P (2010) Designing and implementing a regional urban modeling system using the SLEUTH cellular urban model. Comp Environ Urban 34(1):1–16Google Scholar
  46. Johnson KN, Bettinger P, Kline JD, Spies TA, Lennette M, Lettman G, Garber-Yonts B, Larsen T (2007) Simulating forest structure, timber production, and socioeconomic effects in a multi-owner province. Ecol Appl 17(1):34–47PubMedGoogle Scholar
  47. Johnston F, Bowman D (2014) Bushfire smoke: an exemplar of coupled human and natural systems. Geogr Res 52(1):45–54Google Scholar
  48. Jones JA, Swanson FJ, Wemple BC, Snyder KU (2000) Effects of roads on hydrology, geomorphology, and disturbance patches in stream networks. Conserv Biol 14(1):76–85Google Scholar
  49. Karafyllidis I, Thanailakis A (1997) A model for predicting forest fire spreading using cellular automata. Ecol Model 99(1):87–97Google Scholar
  50. Karam SL, Weisberg PJ, Scheller RM, Johnson DW, Miller W (2013) Development and evaluation of a nutrient cycling extension for the LANDIS-II landscape simulation model. Ecol Model 250:45–57Google Scholar
  51. Karau EC, Keane RE (2007) Determining landscape extent for succession and disturbance simulation modeling. Landscape Ecol 22(7):993–1006Google Scholar
  52. Keane RE, Parsons RA, Hessburg PF (2002) Estimating historical range and variation of landscape patch dynamics: limitations of the simulation approach. Ecol Model 151(1):29–49Google Scholar
  53. Keane RE, Holsinger LM, Pratt SD (2006) Simulating historical landscape dynamics using the landscape fire succession model LANDSUM version 4.0. USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort CollinsGoogle Scholar
  54. Kline JD, Azuma DL, Moses A (2003) Modeling the spatially dynamic distribution of humans in the Oregon (USA) Coast Range. Landscape Ecol 18(4):347–361Google Scholar
  55. Kline JD, Azuma DL, Alig RJ (2004) Population growth, urban expansion, and private forestry in western Oregon. For Sci 50(1):33–43Google Scholar
  56. Lamsal A, Wimberly MC, Liu Z, Sohl TL (2014) A simulation model of human-natural interactions in dynamic landscapes. In: Ames DP, Quinn NWT, Rizzoli AE (eds) Proceedings of 7th international congress on environmental modelling and software, San Diego, CA. International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs)Google Scholar
  57. Laurance WF, Ferreira LV, Rankin-De Merona JM, Laurance SG (1998) Rain forest fragmentation and the dynamics of Amazonian tree communities. Ecology 79(6):2032–2040Google Scholar
  58. Leahy JE, Gorczyca EL (2013) Agent-based modeling of harvest decisions by small scale forest landowners in Maine, USA. Int J For Res 2013:563068Google Scholar
  59. Li H, Franklin J, Swanson F, Spies T (1993) Developing alternative forest cutting patterns: a simulation approach. Landscape Ecol 8(1):63–75Google Scholar
  60. Li C, Ter-Mikaelian M, Perera A (1997) Temporal fire disturbance patterns on a forest landscape. Ecol Model 99(2):137–150Google Scholar
  61. Lindenmayer DB, Hobbs RJ, Likens GE, Krebs CJ, Banks SC (2011) Newly discovered landscape traps produce regime shifts in wet forests. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108(38):15887–15891PubMedCentralPubMedGoogle Scholar
  62. Lischke H, Zimmermann NE, Bolliger J, Rickebusch S, Löffler TJ (2006) TreeMig: a forest-landscape model for simulating spatio-temporal patterns from stand to landscape scale. Ecol Model 199(4):409–420Google Scholar
  63. Liu J, Dietz T, Carpenter SR, Alberti M, Folke C, Moran E, Pell AN, Deadman P, Kratz T, Lubchenco J (2007a) Complexity of coupled human and natural systems. Science 317(5844):1513–1516PubMedGoogle Scholar
  64. Liu J, Dietz T, Carpenter SR, Folke C, Alberti M, Redman CL, Schneider SH, Ostrom E, Pell AN, Lubchenco J (2007b) Coupled human and natural systems. Ambio 36(8):639–649PubMedGoogle Scholar
  65. Liu X, Li X, Shi X, Wu S, Liu T (2008) Simulating complex urban development using kernel-based non-linear cellular automata. Ecol Model 211(1):169–181Google Scholar
  66. Liu X, Sun R, Yang Q, Su G, Qi W (2012) Simulating urban expansion using an improved SLEUTH model. J Appl Remote Sens 6(1):061709Google Scholar
  67. Liu J, Hull V, Batistella M, DeFries R, Dietz T, Fu F, Hertel TW, Izaurralde RC, Lambin EF, Li S (2013) Framing sustainability in a telecoupled world. Ecol Soc 18(2):26Google Scholar
  68. Liu Z, Wimberly MC, Lamsal A, Sohl TL, Hawbaker TJ (2014) Coupled simulation of human-driven and natural land cover change in the Front Range Corridor, CO. In: Ames DP, Quinn NWT, Rizzoli AE (eds) Proceedings of 7th international congress on environmental modelling and software, San Diego, CA. International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs)Google Scholar
  69. Loepfe L, Martinez-Vilalta J, Piñol J (2011) An integrative model of human–influenced fire regimes and landscape dynamics. Environ Model Softw 26(8):1028–1040Google Scholar
  70. López-Carr D, Davis J, Jankowska MM, Grant L, López-Carr AC, Clark M (2012) Space versus place in complex human–natural systems: spatial and multi-level models of tropical land use and cover change (LUCC) in Guatemala. Ecol Model 229:64–75Google Scholar
  71. Manson SM, Evans T (2007) Agent-based modeling of deforestation in southern Yucatán, Mexico, and reforestation in the Midwest United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104(52):20678–20683PubMedCentralPubMedGoogle Scholar
  72. Matthews RB, Gilbert NG, Roach A, Polhill JG, Gotts NM (2007) Agent-based land-use models: a review of applications. Landscape Ecol 22(10):1447–1459Google Scholar
  73. McDonald RI, Yuan-Farrell C, Fievet C, Moeller M, Kareiva P, Foster D, Gragson T, Kinzig A, Kuby L, Redman C (2007) Estimating the effect of protected lands on the development and conservation of their surroundings. Conserv Biol 21(6):1526–1536PubMedGoogle Scholar
  74. McGarigal K, Romme WH, Crist M, Roworth E (2001) Cumulative effects of roads and logging on landscape structure in the San Juan Mountains, Colorado (USA). Landscape Ecol 16(4):327–349Google Scholar
  75. Meentemeyer RK, Haas SE, Václavík T (2012) Landscape epidemiology of emerging infectious diseases in natural and human-altered ecosystems. Annu Rev Phytopathol 50:379–402PubMedGoogle Scholar
  76. Mell WE, Manzello SL, Maranghides A, Butry D, Rehm RG (2010) The wildland–urban interface fire problem–current approaches and research needs. Int J Wildland Fire 19(2):238–251Google Scholar
  77. Moreira E, Costa S, Aguiar AP, Câmara G, Carneiro T (2009) Dynamical coupling of multiscale land change models. Landscape Ecol 24(9):1183–1194Google Scholar
  78. Narayanaraj G, Wimberly MC (2011) Influences of forest roads on the spatial pattern of wildfire boundaries. Int J Wildland Fire 20(6):792–803Google Scholar
  79. Narayanaraj G, Wimberly MC (2012) Influences of forest roads on the spatial patterns of human- and lightning-caused wildfire ignitions. Appl Geogr 32(2):878–888Google Scholar
  80. Naughton-Treves L, Alix-Garcia J, Chapman CA (2011) Lessons about parks and poverty from a decade of forest loss and economic growth around Kibale National Park, Uganda. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108(34):13919–13924PubMedCentralPubMedGoogle Scholar
  81. Nepstad DC, Stickler CM, Soares-Filho B, Merry F (2008) Interactions among Amazon land use, forests and climate: prospects for a near-term forest tipping point. Philos Trans R Soc B 363(1498):1737–1746Google Scholar
  82. Ozah AP, Dami A, Adesina FA (2012) A deterministic cellular automata model for simulating rural land use dynamics: a case study of Lake Chad Basin. J Earth Sci Eng 2(1):22–34Google Scholar
  83. Parendes LA, Jones JA (2000) Role of light availability and dispersal in exotic plant invasion along roads and streams in the HJ Andrews experimental forest, Oregon. Conserv Biol 14(1):64–75Google Scholar
  84. Perez L, Dragicevic S (2010) Modeling mountain pine beetle infestation with an agent-based approach at two spatial scales. Environ Model Softw 25(2):223–236Google Scholar
  85. Perez L, Dragicevic S (2012) Landscape-level simulation of forest insect disturbance: coupling swarm intelligent agents with GIS-based cellular automata model. Ecol Model 231:53–64Google Scholar
  86. Petit C, Scudder T, Lambin E (2001) Quantifying processes of land-cover change by remote sensing: resettlement and rapid land-cover change in south-eastern Zambia. Int J Remote Sens 22(17):3435–3456Google Scholar
  87. Pontius RG, Cornell JD, Hall CA (2001) Modeling the spatial pattern of land-use change with GEOMOD2: application and validation for Costa Rica. Agr Ecosys Environ 85(1):191–203Google Scholar
  88. Radeloff VC, Stewart SI, Hawbaker TJ, Gimmi U, Pidgeon AM, Flather CH, Hammer RB, Helmers DP (2010) Housing growth in and near United States protected areas limits their conservation value. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(2):940–945PubMedCentralPubMedGoogle Scholar
  89. Robinson DT, Brown DG (2009) Evaluating the effects of land-use development policies on ex-urban forest cover: an integrated agent-based GIS approach. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 23(9):1211–1232Google Scholar
  90. Roy ED, Morzillo AT, Seijo F, Reddy SM, Rhemtulla JM, Milder JC, Kuemmerle T, Martin SL (2013) The elusive pursuit of interdisciplinarity at the human—environment interface. Bioscience 63(9):745–753Google Scholar
  91. Ryu S-R, Chen J, Zheng D, Bresee MK, Crow TR (2006) Simulating the effects of prescribed burning on fuel loading and timber production (EcoFL) in managed northern Wisconsin forests. Ecol Model 196(3):395–406Google Scholar
  92. Schaldach R, Priess JA, Alcamo J (2011) Simulating the impact of biofuel development on country-wide land-use change in India. Biomass Bioenerg 35(6):2401–2410Google Scholar
  93. Scheller RM, Mladenoff DJ (2007) An ecological classification of forest landscape simulation models: tools and strategies for understanding broad-scale forested ecosystems. Landscape Ecol 22(4):491–505Google Scholar
  94. Scheller RM, Hua D, Bolstad PV, Birdsey RA, Mladenoff DJ (2011) The effects of forest harvest intensity in combination with wind disturbance on carbon dynamics in Lake States Mesic Forests. Ecol Model 222(1):144–153Google Scholar
  95. Seidl R, Rammer W, Scheller RM, Spies TA (2012) An individual-based process model to simulate landscape-scale forest ecosystem dynamics. Ecol Model 231:87–100Google Scholar
  96. Shang BZ, He HS, Crow TR, Shifley SR (2004) Fuel load reductions and fire risk in central hardwood forests of the United States: a spatial simulation study. Ecol Model 180(1):89–102Google Scholar
  97. Shang Z, He HS, Lytle DE, Shifley SR, Crow TR (2007) Modeling the long-term effects of fire suppression on central hardwood forests in Missouri Ozarks, using LANDIS. For Ecol Manage 242(2):776–790Google Scholar
  98. Shugart H, Crow T, Hett J (1973) Forest succession models: a rationale and methodology for modeling forest succession over large regions. Forest Sci 19(3):203–212Google Scholar
  99. Silvestrini RA, Soares-Filho BS, Nepstad D, Coe M, Rodrigues H, Assunção R (2011) Simulating fire regimes in the Amazon in response to climate change and deforestation. Ecol Appl 21(5):1573–1590PubMedGoogle Scholar
  100. Smithwick EAH, Harmon ME, Domingo JB (2007) Changing temporal patterns of forest carbon stores and net ecosystem carbon balance: the stand to landscape transformation. Landscape Ecol 22(1):77–94Google Scholar
  101. Soares-Filho BS, Nepstad DC, Curran LM, Cerqueira GC, Garcia RA, Ramos CA, Voll E, McDonald A, Lefebvre P, Schlesinger P (2006) Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin. Nature 440(7083):520–523PubMedGoogle Scholar
  102. Soares-Filho B, Silvestrini R, Nepstad D, Brando P, Rodrigues H, Alencar A, Coe M, Locks C, Lima L, Hissa L, Stickler C (2012) Forest fragmentation, climate change and understory fire regimes on the Amazonian landscapes of the Xingu headwaters. Landscape Ecol 27(4):585–598Google Scholar
  103. Sohl T, Sayler K (2008) Using the FORE-SCE model to project land-cover change in the southeastern United States. Ecol Model 219(1–2):49–65Google Scholar
  104. Sohl TL, Sleeter BM, Zhu Z, Sayler KL, Bennett S, Bouchard M, Reker R, Hawbaker T, Wein A, Liu S, Kanengieter R, Acevedo W (2012) A land-use and land-cover modeling strategy to support a national assessment of carbon stocks and fluxes. Appl Geogr 34:111–124Google Scholar
  105. Spies TA, Johnson KN, Burnett KM, Ohmann JL, McComb BC, Reeves GH, Bettinger P, Kline JD, Garber-Yonts B (2007) Cumulative ecological and socioeconomic effects of forest policies in Coastal Oregon. Ecol Appl 17(1):5–17PubMedGoogle Scholar
  106. Stanilov K, Batty M (2011) Exploring the historical determinants of urban growth patterns through cellular automata. Trans GIS 15(3):253–271Google Scholar
  107. Stanturf JA, Schweitzer CJ, Gardiner ES (1998) Afforestation of marginal agricultural land in the Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley, USA. Silva Fennica 32:281–297Google Scholar
  108. Sturtevant BR, Miranda BR, Yang J, He HS, Gustafson EJ, Scheller RM (2009a) Studying fire mitigation strategies in multi-ownership landscapes: balancing the management of fire-dependent ecosystems and fire risk. Ecosystems 12(3):445–461Google Scholar
  109. Sturtevant BR, Scheller RM, Miranda BR, Shinneman D, Syphard A (2009b) Simulating dynamic and mixed-severity fire regimes: a process-based fire extension for LANDIS-II. Ecol Model 220(23):3380–3393Google Scholar
  110. Syphard AD, Clarke KC, Franklin J (2007a) Simulating fire frequency and urban growth in southern California coastal shrublands, USA. Landsc Ecol 22(3):431–445Google Scholar
  111. Syphard AD, Radeloff VC, Keeley JE, Hawbaker TJ, Clayton MK, Stewart SI, Hammer RB (2007b) Human influence on California fire regimes. Ecol Appl 17(5):1388–1402PubMedGoogle Scholar
  112. Syphard AD, Massada AB, Butsic V, Keeley JE (2013) Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss. PLoS ONE 8(8):e71708PubMedCentralPubMedGoogle Scholar
  113. Tang Z, Engel B, Pijanowski B, Lim K (2005) Forecasting land use change and its environmental impact at a watershed scale. J Environ Manage 76(1):35–45PubMedGoogle Scholar
  114. Theobald DM (2005) Landscape patterns of exurban growth in the USA from 1980 to 2020. Ecol Soc 10(1):32Google Scholar
  115. Thompson JR, Foster DR, Scheller RM, Kittredge D (2011) The influence of land use and climate change on forest biomass and composition in Massachusetts, USA. Ecol Appl 21(7):2425–2444PubMedGoogle Scholar
  116. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2013) World population prospects: the 2012 revision, key finding and advance tables. New YorkGoogle Scholar
  117. Vahidnia MH, Alesheikh AA, Behzadi S, Salehi S (2013) Modeling the spread of spatio-temporal phenomena through the incorporation of ANFIS and genetically controlled cellular automata: a case study on forest fire. Int J Digital Earth 6(1):51–75Google Scholar
  118. Valbuena D, Verburg PH, Bregt AK, Ligtenberg A (2010) An agent-based approach to model land-use change at a regional scale. Landscape Ecol 25(2):185–199Google Scholar
  119. Veldkamp A, Fresco L (1996) CLUE: a conceptual model to study the conversion of land use and its effects. Ecol Model 85(2):253–270Google Scholar
  120. Verburg PH (2006) Simulating feedbacks in land use and land cover change models. Landscape Ecol 21(8):1171–1183Google Scholar
  121. Verburg PH, Soepboer W, Veldkamp A, Limpiada R, Espaldon V, Mastura SSA (2002) Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model. Environ Manage 30(3):391–405PubMedGoogle Scholar
  122. Walsh SJ, Entwisle B, Rindfuss RR, Page PH (2006) Spatial simulation modelling of land use/land cover change scenarios in northeastern Thailand: a cellular automata approach. J Land Use Sci 1(1):5–28Google Scholar
  123. Wang WJ, He HS, Spetich MA, Shifley SR, Thompson FR III, Fraser JS (2013a) Modeling the effects of harvest alternatives on mitigating oak decline in a central hardwood forest landscape. PLoS ONE 8(6):e66713PubMedCentralPubMedGoogle Scholar
  124. Wang WJ, He HS, Spetich MA, Shifley SR, Thompson FR III, Larsen DR, Fraser JS, Yang J (2013b) A large-scale forest landscape model incorporating multi-scale processes and utilizing forest inventory data. Ecosphere 4(9):art106Google Scholar
  125. Wang WJ, He HS, Fraser JS, Thompson FR, Shifley SR, Spetich MA (2014) LANDIS PRO: a landscape model that predicts forest composition and structure changes at regional scales. Ecography 37(3):225–229Google Scholar
  126. Wassenaar T, Gerber P, Verburg P, Rosales M, Ibrahim M, Steinfeld H (2007) Projecting land use changes in the Neotropics: the geography of pasture expansion into forest. Global Environ Chang 17(1):86–104Google Scholar
  127. Watkins RZ, Chen J, Pickens J, Brosofske KD (2003) Effects of forest roads on understory plants in a managed hardwood landscape. Conserv Biol 17(2):411–419Google Scholar
  128. Wear DN, Liu R, Foreman JM, Sheffield RM (1999) The effects of population growth on timber management and inventories in Virginia. For Ecol Manage 118(1–3):107–115Google Scholar
  129. Wijesekara G, Gupta A, Valeo C, Hasbani J-G, Qiao Y, Delaney P, Marceau D (2012) Assessing the impact of future land-use changes on hydrological processes in the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada. J Hydrol 412:220–232Google Scholar
  130. Wimberly MC (2002) Spatial simulation of historical landscape patterns in coastal forests of the Pacific Northwest. Can J For Res 32(8):1316–1328Google Scholar
  131. Wimberly MC (2006) species dynamics in disturbed landscapes: when does a shifting habitat mosaic enhance connectivity? Landscape Ecol 21(1):35–46Google Scholar
  132. Wimberly MC, Kennedy RSH (2008) Spatially explicit modeling of mixed-severity fire regimes and landscape dynamics. For Ecol Manage 254(3):511–523Google Scholar
  133. Wimberly MC, Liu Z (2014) Interactions of climate, fire, and management in future forests of the Pacific Northwest. For Ecol Manag 327:270–279Google Scholar
  134. Wimberly MC, Spies TA, Long CJ, Whitlock C (2000) Simulating historical variability in the amount of old forests in the Oregon Coast Range. Conserv Biol 14(1):167–180Google Scholar
  135. Wimberly MC, Boyte SP, Gustafson EJ (2012) Understanding landscapes through spatial modeling. In: Stanturf J, Lamb D, Madsen P (eds) Forest landscape restoration: integrating natural and social sciences. Springer, New York, pp 111–130Google Scholar
  136. Wittemyer G, Elsen P, Bean WT, Burton AC, Brashares JS (2008) Accelerated human population growth at protected area edges. Science 321(5885):123–126PubMedGoogle Scholar
  137. Xi W, Coulson RN, Birt AG, Shang Z-B, Waldron JD, Lafon CW, Cairns DM, Tchakerian MD, Klepzig KD (2009) Review of forest landscape models: types, methods, development and applications. Acta Ecol Sin 29(1):69–78Google Scholar
  138. Yang X, Zheng X-Q, Lv L-N (2012) A spatiotemporal model of land use change based on ant colony optimization, Markov chain and cellular automata. Ecol Model 233:11–19Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Michael C. Wimberly
    • 1
  • Terry L. Sohl
    • 2
  • Zhihua Liu
    • 1
  • Aashis Lamsal
    • 1
  1. 1.Geospatial Sciences Center of ExcellenceSouth Dakota State UniversityBrookingsUSA
  2. 2.USGS Earth Resource Observation and Science (EROS) CenterSioux FallsUSA

Personalised recommendations