Advertisement

Analysis of change in relative uncertainty in GHG emissions from stationary sources for the EU 15

  • Myroslava Lesiv
  • Andriy Bun
  • Matthias Jonas
Chapter

Abstract

Total uncertainty in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions changes over time due to “learning” and structural changes in GHG emissions. Understanding the uncertainty in GHG emissions over time is very important to better communicate uncertainty and to improve the setting of emission targets in the future. This is a diagnostic study divided into two parts. The first part analyses the historical change in the total uncertainty of CO2 emissions from stationary sources that the member states estimate annually in their national inventory reports. The second part presents examples of changes in total uncertainty due to structural changes in GHG emissions considering the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) emissions scenarios that are consistent with the EU’s “20-20-20” targets. The estimates of total uncertainty for the year 2020 are made under assumptions that relative uncertainties of GHG emissions by sector do not change in time, and with possible future uncertainty reductions for non-CO2 emissions, which are characterized by high relative uncertainty. This diagnostic exercise shows that a driving factor of change in total uncertainty is increased knowledge of inventory processes in the past and prospective future. However, for individual countries and longer periods, structural changes in emissions could significantly influence the total uncertainty in relative terms.

Keywords

Emission Factor Inventory Process Relative Uncertainty Total Uncertainty International Maritime Organisation 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. API, CONCAWE, IPIECA (2009) Addressing uncertainty in oil and natural gas industry greenhouse gas inventories: technical considerations and calculation method. Pilot Version, London. Available at: http://www.api.org/ehs/climate/response/upload/Addressing_Uncertainty.pdf
  2. Bun A, Hamal K, Jonas M, Lesiv M (2010) Verification of compliance with GHG emissions target: annex B countries. Clim Chang 103:215–225CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. EC (1991) Nitrates Directive. Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/water-nitrates/index_en.html
  4. EC (2008) Second strategic review – An EU security and solidarity action plan – Europe’s current and future energy position – Demand – resources – investments. SEC (2008) 2871, Brussels, 13 November 2008. Vol. 1. Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/energy/strategies/2008/2008_11_ser2_en.htm
  5. EC (2009) EU action against climate change – Leading global action to 2020 and beyond. Directorate-General for the Environment Information Centre (BU-9 0/11), B-1049 BrusselsGoogle Scholar
  6. EEA (2003–2010) Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventories and inventory reports. Available at: http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/#c9=all&c14=technical_report_2002_75&c12=&c7=en&c11=5&b_start=0
  7. EEA (2010) Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2008 and inventory report 2010. Available at: http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/european-union-greenhouse-gas-inventory-2010
  8. EEA (2010) Tracking progress towards Kyoto and 2020 targets in Europe. Denmark. Available at: http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/progress-towards-kyoto.
  9. Ermolieva T, Ermoliev Y, Fischer G, Jonas M, Makowski M, Wagner F (2010) Carbon emission trading and carbon taxes under uncertainties. Clim Chang 103(1):277–289CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Hamal K (2010) Reporting greenhouse gas emissions: change in uncertainty and its relevance for the detection of emission changes. Interim report IR-10-003, Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Available at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-10-003.pdf
  11. IIASA (2010) GAINS – the greenhouse gas and air pollution interactions and synergies (GAINS)-model. Available at: http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/gains/EUR/index.login?logout=1
  12. IPCC (2006) 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. In: Eggleston HS, Buendia L, Miwa K, Ngara T, Tanabe K (eds) Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, JapanGoogle Scholar
  13. IPCC (1997) Revised 1996 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories, Vol. 1: Greenhouse gas inventory reporting instructions; Vol. 2: Greenhouse gas inventory workbook; Vol. 3: Greenhouse gas inventory reference manual. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I (WG I) Technical Support Unit, IPCC/OECD/IEA, Bracknell, United Kingdom. Available at: http://www.ipccnggip.iges.or.jp/public/gl/invs1.htm
  14. Jonas M, Gusti M, Jeda W, Nahorski Z, Nilsson S (2010a) Comparison of preparatory signal analysis techniques for consideration in the (post-)Kyoto policy process. Clim Chang 103:175–213CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Jonas M, Marland G, Winiwarter W et al (2010b) Benefits of dealing with uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories: introduction. Clim Chang 103(1):3–18CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Jonas M, Nilsson S, Bun R, Dachuk V, Gusti M, Horabik J, Jęda W, Nahorski Z (2004) Preparatory signal detection for Annex I countries under the Kyoto protocol – a lesson for the post-Kyoto policy process. Interim report IR-04-024, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, p 91. Available at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-04-024.pdf Google Scholar
  17. Lesiv M (2012) Influence of structural changes in emissions on total uncertainty. Interim report IR-12-018, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, p 20 Lieberman D, Jonas M, Winiwarter W et al (2007) Accounting for climate change: introduction. Water Air Soil Pollut Focus 7:421–424Google Scholar
  18. Lieberman D, Jonas M, Winiwarter W et al (2007) Accounting for climate change: introduction. Water Air Soil Pollut Focus 7:421–424Google Scholar
  19. Marland G, Hamal K, Jonas M (2008) How uncertain are estimates of CO2 emissions? J Ind Ecol 13:4–7CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. National inventory reports (2003–2008) under the UNFCCC Treaty. Available at: http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/items/4303.php
  21. National Research Council (2010) Verifying greenhouse gas emissions: methods to support international climate agreements. National Academies Press, Washington. Available at: http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12883&page=11 Google Scholar
  22. UNFCCC (2010) National inventory reports (2000–2008) under the UNFCCC treaty. Available at: http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/items/4303.ph

Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of SciencesWarsawPoland
  2. 2.Lviv Polytechnic National UniversityLvivUkraine
  3. 3.Delft University of TechnologyDelftNetherlands
  4. 4.International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisLaxenburgAustria

Personalised recommendations