Uncertainty, Probabilistic Analysis and Outputs from Cost Effectiveness Analyses
Chapter
Abstract
An economic evaluation provides a summary of the current evidence for different actions in response to a decision problem, and aims to inform decision makers about what impacts these might have in terms of costs and benefits. As many of these costs and benefits occur in the future, and the future is inherently uncertain, it is important that economic evaluations explore the uncertainties in any answer that can be produced from current evidence. This chapter focuses on introducing the different sources of uncertainty in economic evaluation and the more straightforward mechanisms for their characterisations and analysis, along with a critical understanding of the limitations of these methods.
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