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Machine Learning Prediction of Large Area Photovoltaic Energy Production

  • Ángela FernándezEmail author
  • Yvonne Gala
  • José R. Dorronsoro
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 8817)

Abstract

In this work we first explore the use of Support Vector Regression to forecast day-ahead daily and 3-hourly aggregated photovoltaic (PV) energy production on Spain using as inputs Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts of global horizontal radiation and total cloud cover. We then introduce an empirical “clear sky” PV energy curve that we use to disaggregate these predictions into hourly day-ahead PV forecasts. Finally, we use Ridge Regression to refine these day-ahead forecasts to obtain same-day hourly PV production updates that for a given hour \(h\) use PV energy readings up to that hour to derive updated PV forecasts for hours \(h+1, h+2, \ldots \). While simple from a Machine Learning point of view, these methods yield encouraging first results and also suggest ways to further improve them.

Keywords

Photovoltaic energy Numerical weather prediction Support vector regression Ridge regression 

Notes

Acknowledgments

With partial support from Spain’s grants TIN2010-21575-C02-01 and TIN2013-42351-P, and the UAM–ADIC Chair for Machine Learning. We thank Red Elctrica de Espaa for useful discussions and making available PV energy data.

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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Ángela Fernández
    • 1
    Email author
  • Yvonne Gala
    • 1
  • José R. Dorronsoro
    • 1
  1. 1.Dpto. Ing. InformáticaUniversidad Autónoma de MadridMadridSpain

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