Synthetic Population Initialization and Evolution-Agent-Based Modelling of Population Aging and Household Transitions
A synthetic population (SP) aims at faithfully reproducing actual social entities, individuals and households, and their characteristics as described in a population census. Depending on the quality and completeness of the input data sets, as well as the number of variables of interest and hierarchical levels (usually, individual and household), a reliable SP should be able to reflect the actual physical social entities, with their characteristics and specific behavioural patterns. This paper presents a methodology to construct a reliable dynamic synthetic population for the Illawarra Region-Australia. The two main components in the population synthesizer presented in this paper are initialization and evolution. Iterative proportional fitting procedure (IPFP) is presented to help with the initialization of the population using 2011 Australian census. Then, population aging and evolution is projected using an agent-based modeling (ABM) technique over ten years.
KeywordsAgent-Based Modelling Household Transitions Iterative Proportional Fitting Procedure Population Dynamics Synthetic Reconstruction
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