Indication Sequencing for a New Molecular Entity with Multiple Potential Oncology Indications

Chapter

Abstract

In this chapter, we address portfolio optimization at a sub-portfolio level. Even a “mini” portfolio—such as a single molecule with numerous indication opportunities—can pose a significant challenge to an organization; there are many interdependencies, correlations, and synergies to consider, weigh, and trade off. Here we present a case study that considers the challenge of optimizing this sub-portfolio by determining the best sequence of three potential indications. The same methods can be applied to a molecule with even more indication opportunities, a group of related molecules, or an entire portfolio.

Keywords

decision analysis indication sequencing clinical development MODA decision tree risk adjusted valuation portfolio optimization pipeline planning 

Abbreviations

BC

Metastatic breast cancer

DPL

Decision programming language by syncopation

eNPV

Expected NPV, a probability weighted average of all possible NPV outcomes, including technical risk

G-BA

Gemeinsamer Bundesausschuss (Federal Joint Committee, the supreme decision-making body of the healthcare system in Germany)

IP

Intellectual property

IQWiG

Institut für Qualität und Wirtschaftlichkeit im Gesundheitswesen (scientific unit that assess effectiveness, quality, and efficiency of diagnostic and therapeutic methods and pharmaceuticals in Germany)

MM

Multiple myeloma

MODA

Multiple objective decision analysis

NPV

Net present value, a sum of discounted cash flows over a defined time horizon using an agreed upon discount rate

NSCLC

Non-small-cell lung cancer

PC

Prostate cancer

PD

Pharmacodynamics

PK

Pharmacokinetics

POS

Probability of success (technical success for a phase)

PTD

Patient treatment day

PTRS

Probability of technical and regulatory success (combined POS for all phases)

PV

Present value

RA

Rheumatoid arthritis

R & D

Research and development

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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jack KloeberJr.
    • 1
  • Alex Stojanovic
    • 2
  • C. Kwon Kim
    • 3
  1. 1.Kromite LLCFeastervilleUSA
  2. 2.PhosphagenicsLawrence TownshipUSA
  3. 3.Kromite LLCVancouverCanada

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