Open image in new windowAssessing the Effect of Mitigation Measures on Landslide Hazard Using 2D Numerical Runout Modelling

  • Haydar Y. Hussin
  • Roxana Ciurean
  • Simone Frigerio
  • Gianluca Marcato
  • Chiara Calligaris
  • Paola Reichenbach
  • Cees van Westen
  • Thomas Glade
Conference paper

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-05050-8_105

Cite this paper as:
Hussin H.Y. et al. (2014) Open image in new windowAssessing the Effect of Mitigation Measures on Landslide Hazard Using 2D Numerical Runout Modelling. In: Sassa K., Canuti P., Yin Y. (eds) Landslide Science for a Safer Geoenvironment. Springer, Cham

Abstract

Landslide mitigation measures are used to reduce the risk affecting mountain communities. The quantitative estimation of the change or reduction in risk, after implementing mitigation measures, requires modeling of past events and the forward prediction of possible future occurences. However, the forward-prediction of landslide hazard is subjected to uncertainties due to the lack of knowledge on some key aspects like the possible source volume that can be triggered and model parameters that determine the landslide runout. In this study, a back-analysis of a debris flow event was carried out using MassMov2D to create a set of parameter ranges for forward-predicting runouts with mitigation measures. We approached the issue of uncertainty by systematically sampling parameters from wide ranges and running hundreds of different runout scenarios. Simulations from back-analysis were compared with the forward-predicted models to determine changes in the spread and intensity of debris flows affecting elements at risk (e.g. houses and roads). This study is a first step towards a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) being carried out within the EC FP-7 funded CHANGES network (Grant Agreement No. 263953).

Keywords

Landslide runout 2D numerical modelling Landslide mitigation Landslide hazard and risk 

Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Haydar Y. Hussin
    • 1
    • 2
  • Roxana Ciurean
    • 3
  • Simone Frigerio
    • 4
  • Gianluca Marcato
    • 4
  • Chiara Calligaris
    • 5
  • Paola Reichenbach
    • 1
  • Cees van Westen
    • 2
  • Thomas Glade
    • 3
  1. 1.CNR-IRPIPerugiaItaly
  2. 2.Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)University of TwenteEnschedeThe Netherlands
  3. 3.Department of Geography and Regional ResearchUniversity of ViennaViennaAustria
  4. 4.CNR-IRPIPadovaItaly
  5. 5.Department of Mathematics and GeosciencesUniversity of TriesteTriesteItaly

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