Development of a New Approach to Earthquake Prediction: Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory

  • Xiang-Chu Yin
  • Yu-Cang Wang
  • Ke-Yin Peng
  • Yi-Long Bai
  • Hai-Tao Wang
  • Xun-Fei Yin
Chapter
Part of the Pageoph Topical Volumes book series (PTV)

Abstract

The seismogenic process is nonlinear and irreversible so that the response to loading is different from unloading. This difference reflects the damage of a loaded material. Based on this insight, a new parameter-load/unload response ratio (LURR) was proposed to measure quantitatively the proximity to rock failure and earthquake more than ten years ago. In the present paper, we review the fundamental concept of LURR, the validation of LURR with experimental and numerical simulation, the retrospective examination of LURR with new cases in different tectonic settings (California, USA, and Kanto region, Japan), the statistics of earthquake prediction in terms of LURR theory and the random distribution of LURR under Poisson’s model. Finally we discuss LURR as a parameter to judge the closeness degree to SOC state of the system and the measurement of tidal triggering earthquake.

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) theory was first proposed in 1984 (Yin, 1987). Subsequently, a series of advances were made (Yin and Yin, 1991; Yin, 1993; Yin et al.,1994a,b, 1995; Maruyama, 1995). In this paper, the new results after 1995 are summarized (Yin et al., 1996; Wang et al.,1998a, 1999; Zhuang and Yin, 1999).

Key words

Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) earthquake prediction random distribution of LURR intermittent SOC tidal triggering earthquake. 
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Copyright information

© Springer Basel AG 2000

Authors and Affiliations

  • Xiang-Chu Yin
    • 1
    • 2
  • Yu-Cang Wang
    • 1
  • Ke-Yin Peng
    • 1
    • 2
  • Yi-Long Bai
    • 1
  • Hai-Tao Wang
    • 1
  • Xun-Fei Yin
    • 1
    • 3
  1. 1.LNM (Laboratory for Non-linear Mechanics)Institute of Mechanics, CASBeijingChina
  2. 2.CAP (Center for Analysis and Prediction)CSB (China Seismological Bureau)BeijingChina
  3. 3.Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design General InstituteMWR (Ministry of Water Resources)BeijingChina

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