Comments on the paper “On Prognosis” by William Farr: a forgotton masterpiece

Abstract

The many contributions of William Farr, the “father of sanitary science” (New-sholme, 1899), to the development of classical epidemiology (the study of disease incidence) are widely acknowledged (Susser and Adelstein, 1975). Farr’s role in the genesis of clinical epidemiology (the study of disease outcomes) is not so well known. It is hoped that by reprinting Farr’s 1838 paper “On prognosis” this imbalance will be remedied. Farr published the paper in the British Medical Almanack, a journal which is not readily accessible to epidemiologists. Its existence was noted by medical historians such as Garrison (1929), Shryock (1979) and Eyler (1979), but it was not included in the collection of Farr’s work edited by Humphreys (1885a).