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Applications to Predictions and Climate Studies

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Part of the Mathematics of Planet Earth book series (MPE, volume 8)

Abstract

In this chapter, numerical simulations of atmospheric blocking and Arctic Oscillation (AO) are conducted using a simple barotropic model with the basis of the 3D-NMFs that considers the barotropic-baroclinic interactions as the external forcing. Using the perfect forcing evaluated as the residual of the model equation from the state variables, we can construct a best-fit forcing by solving an inverse problem. The model is referred to as a barotropic S-model.We integrated the model for 50 years under a perpetual January condition and analyzed the dominant EOF modes in the model atmosphere to obtain the AO as the EOF-1. The AO appears chaotically as an internal variability of the barotropic dynamics, induced by the upscale energy cascade from stationary planetary waves. The result suggests that the AO can be understood as a dynamical eigenmode of the barotropic component of the atmosphere, and is not the statistical artifact as was argued by many researchers. Since the eigenmode is associated with zero eigenvalue of the dynamical system, the mechanism is called the singular eigenmode theory of the AO.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Center for Computational SciencesUniversity of TsukubaTsukubaJapan

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