Abstract
During the EU referendum campaign in June 2016, the UK Treasury published forecasts of what would happen to the economy by the year 2030 if Britain left the European Union (HM Government in HM Treasury Analysis: The Long-Term Economic Impact of EU Membership and the Alternatives, 2016a). They examined three different Brexit scenarios, and these were uniformly pessimistic about the outcomes.
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Notes
- 1.
The Phillips curve involves an inverse relationship between unemployment and money wages, and it implies that low unemployment produces higher inflation (Phillips 1958). The existence of this relationship has been much debated over the years but it still plays an important role in monetary policy, particularly in influencing short-run inflationary expectations. See Janet Yellen’s 2017 speech on monetary policy and inflation retrieved 29/10/2018, at https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20170926a.htm.
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- 3.
Stationary means that they fluctuated around a constant mean and did not increase or decrease over time. This is a requirement for ARIMA modelling.
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Whiteley, P., Clarke, H.D. (2020). Forecasting the Economic Consequences of Brexit. In: How Referendums Challenge European Democracy . Palgrave Studies in European Union Politics. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-44117-3_9
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