Abstract
This chapter presents fundamental concepts related to risk assessment and causal inference in the health sciences. It discusses the processes involved in the identification of risk and causative factors for diseases based on the counterfactual framework and contemporary sufficient component cause models. It provides definitions of commonly used terms, and exemplifies their use. It demonstrates why causal inference is made at the population rather than the individual level, and discusses its relevance to personalized medicine and future epidemiological research.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsReferences
Morabia A, Morabia A. Enigmas of health and disease: how epidemiology helps unravel scientific mysteries. New York: Columbia University Press; 2014.
Taubes G. Epidemiology faces its limits. Science. 1995;269:164–9.
Rothman KJ, Greenland S, Lash TL. Modern epidemiology. 3rd ed. Philadelphia: Wolters Kluwer Health/Lippincott Williams & Wilkins; 2008.
Hempel S. The strange case of the Broad Street pump : John Snow and the mystery of cholera. Berkeley: University of California Press; 2007.
Gatto NM, Campbell UB. Redundant causation from a sufficient cause perspective. Epidemiol Perspect Innov. 2010;7:5.
Hill AB. The environment and disease: association or causation? Proc R Soc Med. 1965;58:295–300.
Beaglehole R, Magnus P. The search for new risk factors for coronary heart disease: occupational therapy for epidemiologists? Int J Epidemiol. 2002;31:1117–22.
Greenland P, Knoll MD, Stamler J, Neaton JD, Dyer AR, Garside DB, Wilson PW. Major risk factors as antecedents of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease events. JAMA. 2003;290:891–7.
McNeil JJ, Wolfe R, Woods RL, Tonkin AM, Donnan GA, Nelson MR, Reid CM, Lockery JE, Kirpach B, Storey E, Shah RC, Williamson JD, Margolis KL, Ernst ME, Abhayaratna WP, Stocks N, Fitzgerald SM, Orchard SG, Trevaks RE, Beilin LJ, Johnston CI, Ryan J, Radziszewska B, Jelinek M, Malik M, Eaton CB, Brauer D, Cloud G, Wood EM, Mahady SE, Satterfield S, Grimm R, Murray AM, Group AI. Effect of aspirin on cardiovascular events and bleeding in the healthy elderly. N Engl J Med. 2018;379:1509–18.
Pearl J, Mackenzie D. The book of why : the new science of cause and effect. 1st ed. New York: Basic Books; 2018.
Chowkwanyun M, Bayer R, Galea S. “Precision” public health - between novelty and hype. N Engl J Med. 2018;379:1398–400.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Demmer, R.T., Papapanou, P.N. (2020). Causal Inference and Assessment of Risk in the Health Sciences. In: Chapple, I., Papapanou, P. (eds) Risk Assessment in Oral Health. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-38647-4_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-38647-4_2
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-38646-7
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-38647-4
eBook Packages: MedicineMedicine (R0)