Integrating Environmental Temperature Conditions into the SIR Model for Vector-Borne Diseases
Nowadays, Complex networks are used to model and analyze various problems of real-life e.g. information diffusion in social networks, epidemic spreading in human population etc. Various epidemic spreading models are proposed for analyzing and understanding the spreading of infectious diseases in human contact networks. In classical epidemiological models, a susceptible person becomes infected after getting in contact with an infected person among the human population only. However, in vector-borne diseases, a human can be infected also by a living organism called a vector. The vector population that also help in spreading diseases is very sensitive to environmental factors such as temperature and humidity. Therefore, new researches are required to derive more realistic models to relate the dynamics of epidemics in the human population with environmental conditions. In order to integrate the impact of the temperature in the spreading of infection, we propose and investigate a modified SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model tailored to vector-borne diseases. Simulations of the proposed model inspired by real data-sets of infectious diseases are performed using an homogeneous human contact network. Results show that the proposed model corroborates the real-world data behavior, and it demonstrates its effectiveness to account for the temperature influence on the epidemic dynamics.
KeywordsEpidemic spreading Complex network Temperature Dynamics on network SIR model
- 1.World Health Organization et al.: Global strategy for dengue prevention and control 2012-2020 (2012)Google Scholar
- 2.Anderson, R.M., May, R.M., Anderson, B.: Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control, vol. 28. Wiley Online Library, Hoboken (1992)Google Scholar
- 15.Moreno, Y., Pastor-Satorras, R., Vespignani, A.: Epidemic outbreaks in complex heterogeneous networks. Eur. Phys. J. B-Condens. Matter Complex Syst. 26(4), 521–529 (2002)Google Scholar