Mathematical Modeling of Multimodal Transportation Risks
Research has shown that the risks of multimodal transportation depend as both on stochastic and fuzzy parameters.
Mathematical vehicles for the stochastic and fuzzy quantities are different. Therefore, a mathematical model is suggested to evaluate for the integral risk of cargo transportation. This makes it possible to use this model in support systems while making decisions on logistics of multimodal transportation. The use of a mathematical model requires careful analysis of all risks attributed to the multimodal transportation chain, possible overload options, and taking into account the entire spectrum of control activities.
After determining the most appropriate, from the point of view of risk minimization, the mode of transportation and its first links, the next stage of dynamic risk management is recursive review of the status vector of the chosen variant of the specified transportation route. For this information system it is necessary to process large data sets, while the suggested model economically uses computer resources and reduces the calculation time. The given mathematical model allows real-time changes in the transportation risk at specific stage to offer options for reducing integral risk, leverage it, in particular, choosing other routes and types of transport.
KeywordsMathematical model Multimodal transportation Risks Big data Fuzzy variables Stochastic parameters Time-discretization Dynamic system
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